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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271339 AAA
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL938 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCREASE WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOCAL OBSERVATION ALREADY INDICATING SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR
HOWEVER SHOULD BE LESS OF A INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (VIA
SOUNDING DATA) HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO (PW`S
NOW AT 1.65") AND 88D RETURNS CONFIRMS THIS BY DEPICTING A GOOD DEAL
SHOWER/TSTMS ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW VIA 88D VADS AND
MORNING RAOB DATA SHOULD AGAIN PIN OR NEGATE THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (LI`S ~-6 TO -8C) AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST
POPS (~50%) EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE RESIDES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS (~-8 TO -9C) MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF
THIS...SO NO MORNING ZONE UPDATE REQUIRED.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 271414
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL[img][/img]
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
OFF FROM THE ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH THE
DAY AS PER WRF AND RADAR TRENDS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS
THERE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS
AS WELL SINCE SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO ALLOW NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.89 INCHES WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY
UNIFORM ALL THE WAY UP...BUT UNSTABLE WITH THE H5 TEMP AT -9.3C
AND CAPE >3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SO GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE TAMPA
SOUNDING SHOWS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DRY AIR NOT ERODING THERE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
OVER THE MARINE AREAS...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY...SO UPDATED THE WINDS TO
REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
/GREGORIA
