Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[wxmann_91]

why are you looking at a vorticity map for steering currents thats not going to help you much ..

Weak systems are steered by low level flow... 700-850mb. I couldn't care less about the vorticity, the key thing to focus on is the wind barbs.

[Aric Dunn]

if you go here.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

and click on all the levels.. you will see a break in the ridge .. that is supposed to slide east a little .. allowing whatever it is to stay on a wnw course.

[harmclan]

Yea I'm seeing the new convection coming in as well. I'll elaborate more on what I was trying to say; In order for the NHC to classify it as a TD this far out convection will have to increase to the northeast, which would consequentially give 96L a more symmetrical shape with a better established outflow. Looks like it's just me and you again tonight Aric

[Aric Dunn]

the ridge to its north is not that strong and thus a wnw track should take shape..

[Toadstool]

Looks like it's just me and you again tonight Aric

What are we, the peanut gallery?

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[Aric Dunn]

Yea I'm seeing the new convection coming in as well. I'll elaborate more on what I was trying to say; In order for the NHC to classify it as a TD this far out convection will have to increase to the northeast, which would consequentially give 96L a more symmetrical shape with a better established outflow. Looks like it's just me and you again tonight Aric

yeah but it really does not need it for a TD.. but i understand what your saying those are ideal condidtions.. but more times than not .. weak systems are very disorganized except they have a closed low and winds of 30kt or less. which is a TD

[harmclan]

haha yea I saw that as well. The same is going on over at wunderground

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it's just me and you again tonight Aric

What are we, the peanut gallery?

Users browsing this forum: abjolly, AnnularCane, Aric Dunn, Berwick Bay, Cyclenall, GeneratorPower, harmclan, HurricaneBill, hurricanefloyd5, jdray, NDG, Steve, TheRingo, Toadstool, wjs3, wxman22, wxmann_91 and 36 guests

lol

[NDG]

My question is why certain posters here are looking at the 5 day forecasted shear by global models in the eastern Caribbean, when we know that they do not do the best job in forecasting shear levels that far out, they either over estimate or under estimate shear levels past 3 days out.

[Toadstool]

My question is why certain posters here are looking at the 5 day forecasted shear by global models in the eastern Caribbean, when we know that they do not do the best job in forecasting shear levels that far out, they either over estimate or under estimate shear levels past 3 days out.

I agree it's at a critical point in formation... neither sheer nor track matter if it doesn't survive.

[Berwick Bay]

Okay, I got a question. I know that the Ships Model is an intensity forecast, not to be confused with those models which forecast direction. And I've just posted my opinion about the future course of this system, assuming it remains a Wave-Depression or perhaps a minimal tropical storm over the next 2-3 days (think it would mean a more southerly track). Perhaps I'm wrong, but here's the question. IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THESE MODELS WHICH TAKE THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE ACTUALLY PICKING UP ON A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME THAN WE ARE PRESENTLY ANTICIPATING? I guess the quick answer would be no, eh? Sorry, but I had to ask.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a depression people, because the nhc don't upgrade it doe's not mean that it could not be one. Why do I say that? Because it has a closed LLC with 30-35 knot winds. In fact with this new blow up of convection forming near the LLC expect this to strengthen slowly over the next 24 hours....I expect this has been slowed, and put in check by dry air/SAL moving around the northern side. But other wise there is little reason to think this could not develop. Quickscat shows LLC,satellite proves it.

I also expect that this new burst will help to wash some of the dry air away form it. Also push it to a "real depression"

[wxmann_91]

if you go here.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

and click on all the levels.. you will see a break in the ridge .. that is supposed to slide east a little .. allowing whatever it is to stay on a wnw course.

There is... but it's in the wrn ATL, and the GFS forecasts it to fill... (the low levels, that is; a weakness does develop with the 500mb ridge)

(java loop) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Cyclenall]

why do some here only give intensity forecasts, when intensity forecasting is so poor, even for those who do this for a living?

Track is far easier and you will be more successful. There is a reason why NHC did not start issuing intensity forecasts until 1990

That's true and funny. But I'll do this now:

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Invest 96L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 55%
Tropical Storm: 45%
Hurricane: Unknown
Major Hurricane: Unknown

[Aric Dunn]

its growing bigger and deeper.. as i said may be possible
lol

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Edit: The latest HWRF, not pictured above, takes the invest much further south into the islands than the previous run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You look at systems like Barry,Alison,Alberto,Arlene,Lee,+++ all had not fully covered with convection. The most important part of a depression or storm is the LLC. With out a LLC you could have a blob the size of texas in it would be nothing more then a blob. Quickscat shown this to have a LLC with 30 knot winds. Yes it is good to have convection, which helps the LLC to strengthen, which you will have a strengthing system then. Also the convection has been over the LLC on this longer much longer then Barry.

[TheRingo]

been watching eumetsat rainfall and it too shows an increase in the last hour. these images update sooner.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

[Berwick Bay]

Cyclenall, I admire your effort, but I think your percentages are a tad bit too conservative. For instance 55% depression, hell it may be a depression right now. 45% tropical storm, I'd probably up that to about 55%. But I do agree with you about anything beyond that. But thats what I like. Going out on a limb. And maybe I'm a bit too "bullish" on this thing.

[philnyc]

why do some here only give intensity forecasts, when intensity forecasting is so poor, even for those who do this for a living?

Track is far easier and you will be more successful. There is a reason why NHC did not start issuing intensity forecasts until 1990

Because we love the challenge! ... and the track, so far, is taking candy from a baby.