New article on Proenza

[caneman]

This is the exact point I've been trying to make. Why was he hired in the first place if he lacked the credentials, charisma what have you? I think the people responsilble for hiring him in the first place then should also be made to walk the plank.

[Derek Ortt]

wasn't aware of a gathering. PM me about the details and if I am not busy (with my M.S. or another cane), I'll see what I can do

[DanKellFla]

I think all this brings up another point. Just what should the director of the NHC be responsible for? Is it a technical job or a media job? Both? Should it change. Not having the boss be technically capable of handling the job isn't such a bad thing IF all he needs to do is manage. The senoir forecasters have enough experience by now to decide on a track amongst themselves. And, there are some junior forecasters on their way. Maybe the director of the NHC should be a media friendly figurehead, with meteorlogical training, and the technical boss be somebody else. That would allow the director to be completely available to communicate with the world durring a crisis and the real boss to dedicate himself to be completely available to forecasting.

[Berwick Bay]

Dankell said this
I think all this brings up another point. Just what should the director of the NHC be responsible for? Is it a technical job or a media job? Both? Should it change. Not having the boss be technically capable of handling the job isn't such a bad thing IF all he needs to do is manage. The senoir forecasters have enough experience by now to decide on a track amongst themselves. And, there are some junior forecasters on their way. Maybe the director of the NHC should be a media friendly figurehead, with meteorlogical training, and the technical boss be somebody else. That would allow the director to be completely available to communicate with the world durring a crisis and the real boss to dedicate himself to be completely available to forecasting.
_____________________________________________________Dan thats pretty much what I mean when I say that we shouldn't be surprised if the next director is not a degreed meteorologist. Your also hitting on points which I think may lead to a reorganization of the NHC within weather and defense. Could be many role changes ahead. Derek also mentioned NHC responsibilities possibly falling within a defense context. Thats one reason why I've been saying that we shouldn't be surprised if the next permanent director is retired military. It might also establish a more rigid or disciplined setting within the Hurricane Center (within the context of defense), less likely that the director or anyone else would rock the boat by going to the media without being cleared through the proper channels. I think that this might be the real reason for any future reorganization (and I'm really not comfortable with that part.) Basically Dan, I think your post is right on the money.

[Downdraft]

"sorry cycloneye, but thats what this is about really... politics..."


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
((pasted from your post))

Jesse, I said the exact same thing when this all began and you jumped down my throat. Have you changed your mind? NOAA's Director has a lot of enemies up on the hill and this whole mess could very well have been in orchestrated as the first step in going after him. Proenza is no dummy and it would take an act of God not to see that come November 2008 control is going to switch hands in the country. Sacrifical lamb today, hero tomorrow.

[Downdraft]

If you accept the premise in the article that NOAA's management may have actually thought this would be a managerial scale demotion for Proenza someone really dropped the ball. It can't sit well with some special NOAA's leadership that an NWS employee who only manages 50 or so people becomes one of the most high profile people in government for several months a year. A couple of thoughts; Max Mayfield did a masterful job of keeping the NHC out of the political minefield post Katrina. He managed to deflect the nonsense coming from Blanco and Nagin and didn't run to Congress yelling we need more money to prevent this in the future. Max knew you can't prevent "this" in the future the problems of preparedness and response were not within the purview of the NHC's mandate. You don't see the Director of the NSSL or the SPC screaming for more research money every time a tornado wipes a town off the face of the earth. Derek is quite correct saying hurricanes are matters of national security. Katrina, Rita, Charley, etc., all fall within the guidelines for the designation of "incidents of national significance," ala, NIMS and the NRP." However, that said and once again politics rears its ugly head, the administration can not and will not see issues of security going beyond Al Qaeda. One need only do a threat/risk/benefit analysis to see that weather and hurricanes rank at the top of the threat list. I think we can for the most part agree that the incorporation of FEMA into Homeland Security diminished FEMA's effectiveness. I would hate to think the loss of the NWS as an entity and simply a department of NOAA might have the same effect. Proenza is really a micro-event in a meso-scale system.

I'd like to recommend we move this whole issue to another board or area. There is no way that your going to keep politics out of this issue since it's very political to begin with. Secondly, we are coming into the heart of the season now and by all indications the basin is beginning to stir. The issue deserves debate but lets segregate it from where conversations should be about storms in the Atlantic not storms in Washington.

[Derek Ortt]

maybe move it to OT, or maybe a new civics forum could be created here

[cycloneye]

Following some members input about moving this theme to another forum,I moved it from Talking Tropics forum to this off-topic forum.

[Downdraft]

Thanks Luis, it really does need discussion but it was getting out of the scope of "Talkin Tropics." Glad to see you move it and I would hope that while it is very political in a sense we continue to exercise restraint when it comes to personal attacks and name bashing. I appreciate how sensitive the moderators have been to the subject and the restraint shown by all to keep it from degenerating.

[Derek Ortt]

Now that it is here,

This congressional investigation is BS. If only one viewpoint is being presented, it is not legitimate, if in fact only one viewpoint is being presented. Have a real investigation or have none at all

[x-y-no]

Now that it is here,

This congressional investigation is BS. If only one viewpoint is being presented, it is not legitimate, if in fact only one viewpoint is being presented. Have a real investigation or have none at all

I haven't had a chance to listen, but it sounds like it was a typical show. I'm disappointed, but not surprised.

They should have had a couple of the senior staff testify too.

[DanKellFla]

Now that it is here,

This congressional investigation is BS. If only one viewpoint is being presented, it is not legitimate, if in fact only one viewpoint is being presented. Have a real investigation or have none at all

I agree. Otherwise all we will get is propaganda. There has to be more going on here than we know about. I hope we get some kind of summary of the hearing.

[Aslkahuna]

Apparently, the Committee felt that the senior forecaster's point of view was adequately covered by the media reports. What Lautenbacher has to really explain is why Avila, Franklin, Knabb and Pasch are still working for the Government after such a blatant violation of OPM regulations.

Steve

[x-y-no]

Apparently, the Committee felt that the senior forecaster's point of view was adequately covered by the media reports. What Lautenbacher has to really explain is why Avila, Franklin, Knabb and Pasch are still working for the Government after such a blatant violation of OPM regulations.

Steve

Ummmm ... for one thing, if they fired half the senior forecasting staff as we go into the heart of the hurricane season, that would quite likely cost lives - possibly a lot of lives.

But in any case I don't agree that they should be fired for speaking out.

[Aslkahuna]

There are regulations that are to be followed in the case of grievance procedures and to circumvent those regulations as it certainly appears that a number of people did is grounds for immediate dismissal regardless of position. At the very least the senior forecasters should be reassigned to a lower position and receive referral performance reports along with the establishment of a UIF in their personnel records.

Steve

[DanKellFla]

There are regulations that are to be followed in the case of grievance procedures and to circumvent those regulations as it certainly appears that a number of people did is grounds for immediate dismissal regardless of position. At the very least the senior forecasters should be reassigned to a lower position and receive referral performance reports along with the establishment of a UIF in their personnel records.

Steve

That could be done, and some penalty should be applied, but how many highly experienced tropical forecasters do we have? They know that they are a commodity and not easily replaced. I would guess that each one could go make more money as a weather reporter for some TV station if they really wanted too.