Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I must be missing something and due to my novice status, it's not a surprise, but 1010 isn't that big a deal right? So why are people excited over it? right now montana has a 1000mb pressure which i know is over land but you see my point so please help me see what you see so I can get excited too. Thanks

It's pressure difference that's important. Right now the pressure is high over
most areas at least 1014 millibars over GOM but if one spot drops to 1010 its
a somewhat notable difference. With montana Im not sure but I think
it's a different environment with a Land Low over the area probably.
But in the tropics something droping to 1010 over warm water might be
notable depending on other conditions.

And I must say this is quite a blob over the central gulf of mexico
Nothing too scary, but enough to get my close attention.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So as a trough and front are stalling in the GOM,
something could develop along it with all the moisture
and heat content and favorable shear. What does
everyone think about that possibility?

[flwxwatcher]

So as a trough and front are stalling in the GOM,
something could develop along it with all the moisture
and heat content and favorable shear. What does
everyone think about that possibility?

I think The Eastern Gulf will be an area to watch Early to Mid week.. Even J.B. in todays discussion said The NE Gulf will have to be watched and in the very least it would bring Florida alot of rain..

[ronjon]

00z and 06Z GFS still consistent in forming a weak surface low in the GOM middle of next weak. The NWS offices in FL are starting to mention it in their AFDs.

[rockyman]

I'll be watching the SE Gomex starting about Tuesday...as that front washes out and upper level winds improve...convection is continuing to fire in the area today (but conditions aren't right yet).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you all for that information. I'll be watching it
closely into this week...

[ronjon]

Latest 00Z European model shows that shear conditions should be quite favorable over the GOM in 4-5 days. In fact, the Euro develops a weak upper level high over the NE GOM in 5 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Berwick Bay]

Caneman wrote
I'm really wondering if what the models are hinting at is what is actually sitting in the Gulf right now. Not terrible low pressure but did see one at 29.89. Anytime a mass sits in the Gulf like that during this part of the year,it BEARS watching.
_____________________________________________________
Storms conglomerating, refiring this morning in south central Gulf. Current continental air mass continues to push east off the Atlantic seaboard. Shear conditions in Gulf forecast to improve. I'm with you. We might not have to wait for another air mass from the continent to deposit anything else in the Gulf. We might already have the requisite moisture and low pressure.

[stormy70]

So are we talking about possible rain maker and surfin waves. (And no I don't surf but love taking pics.)

[baygirl_1]

Here's the Forecast Discussion from NWS Mobile:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2007

LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MON AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AMPLIFIES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT
MAKING IT JUST OFFSHORE AND STALLING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CUT
DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVES IT BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND WILL DISCOUNT THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW IN FAVOR
OF A GENERAL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG W/ INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. /13

Though they are discounting the GFS spinning up a low from this, they do mention it. A cold front that goes offshore and stalls definitely deserves one eye be kept on it.
On a personal note: I really don't want to see anything form in the Gulf, but if it has to, I'm glad it waited. DH gets home tonight from his extended business trip. It's been a long week and a half-- I was afraid I was going to need a trip to the funny farm before he made it back! If a storm had threatened on top of everything else-- well, it would've really been the end. But, I do hope that if something does form, it's just a rain maker and not a big ol' blow-hard!

[Opal storm]

This will probably be like that disturbance we had near Texas a few days ago, just an area of squally weather.

[vbhoutex]

This will probably be like that disturbance we had near Texas a few days ago, just an area of squally weather.

Fortunately that is all it turned out to be. We did have a low form off the mid to upper TX coast and move inland. Fortunately, it was almost over land when it formed. Had it been furhter South and the shear had been less we could have had a whole other ball game. Thanks goodness we didn't!!

I hope the same scenario doesn't unfold in NW FL. Our church will be on a mission in Pensacola August 3rd-10th and they need good weather in order to complete the work they are supposed to be doing.

[ronjon]

Low pressure still predicted by the GFS in the NE GOM. Here is the 18Z run at 90 hrs. I see the NAM has now jumped on board too with low pressure in the eastern GOM on Thursday. Both depict weak systems. Let's hope they stay that way with 88 deg water temps.

[flwxwatcher]

The GFS has been consistent with this feature and like you said NAM coming aboard. This could bring some heavy rains to Florida this week.

[flwxwatcher]

The JMA also shows a weak low in the Northern Gulf and gives a couple days of good rainfall to parts of Florida.

[caneman]

29.82 buoy reading. Fairly low pressures. Lets see if convection builds back tonight.

[Meso]

Think this is what the CMC is now showing too :
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp12.png
Interesting run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Nogaps also shows a lil something
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/20 ... /slp11.png

Ukmet
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... /slp15.png

Latest GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066s.gif

[N2FSU]

Wow! Sure is an abundance of model support for something to spin up in the eastern Gulf the next few days. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of this.

[N2FSU]

This is from the Tallahassee NWS discussion this morning:

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH PULLS
A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE NAM AND UKMET FORECAST
ONLY A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND KEEP THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE A VERY WET ONE FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
ALTHOUGH WE NEED THE RAIN...WE DECIDED TO BASE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST ON THE NAM SINCE IT IS SO SIMILAR TO THE UKMET AND HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. IF A LOW DOES DEVELOP MORE THAN
EXPECTED WE WOULD HAVE TO ADJUST OUR FORECAST TO THE WETTER
SOLUTION. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA ZONES

[tailgater]

Here's the "Low to be" dropping south of Mobile.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
Upper level somewhat supportive already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html