CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[RL3AO]

Wow. I go to sleep for five hours and we get a depression and a new invest.

[Praxus]

I have to say I don't really like this format. Having to flip back and forth between this new forum and the normal one to check on both TD4 and the Caribbean invest is kind of a pain in the butt. I liked it when all the action was in one forum, was much easier to follow things.
Just my 2 cents.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z GFS will start around 11-11:30 Central

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is taking a track north of what Ivan did...And we all know where Ivan ended up...extrapolate this path a few degrees right and we might see a Florida threat.

well it doesn't quite work that way. The upper-level environment and expected conditions are different now than with Ivan, and thus the track could be too.

[CourierPR]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike.

They are? Based on what?

[z-bail]

yeah, i just noticed on the floater that it is looking worse with every frame. i hope it can hold itself together!

[artist]

wow- cat 2 for the islands. Everyone if this comes to fruition my thoughts and prayers are with you - get ready now if you aren't already.

[destruction92]

I have to say I don't really like this format. Having to flip back and forth between this new forum and the normal one to check on both TD4 and the Caribbean invest is kind of a pain in the butt. I liked it when all the action was in one forum, was much easier to follow things.
Just my 2 cents.

I agree. Let's see what the mods have to say.

[MiamiensisWx]

Very ominous track.

Can we stop these one-liners? It should be closely monitored, but you should quit the hype. The forums will crash under the weight of these frivolous posts that lack substance. These posts that state, "It looks bad", "It's going to Texas", or "Wow!" are wastes of time and energy. We should monitor the upper-air environment before we get a grip on the possible intensity and narrow the possible paths. It is too early to speculate, but the islands should be prepared. People need good analyses. We should monitor the three-day cone. It is irresponsible to pick a specific landfall location. Take the chatter to the chat room!

[gatorcane]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike.

They are? Based on what?

of course...this is an irresponsible statement...anybody from Texas up through Maine including all the Caribbean islands need to monitor this system...

[punkyg]

I have to say I don't really like this format. Having to flip back and forth between this new forum and the normal one to check on both TD4 and the Caribbean invest is kind of a pain in the butt. I liked it when all the action was in one forum, was much easier to follow things.
Just my 2 cents.

I agree.

[Evil Jeremy]

Because of the new forum layout, please tell me if i posted this in the wrong place. I also accept criticism. Please comment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EJ Forecast’s
TD 4
Advisory 1
11:15AMEDT

It seems that hurricane season is finally getting into gear with Tropical Depression 4, which is also this season’s first “Cape Verde” storm, meaning that it came off of the coast of Africa and formed near the Cape Verde Islands before continuing west towards the Caribbean, where it would either strike the islands or recurve back out to see and Bermuda.

This TD in particular rolled off of Africa a few days ago, but the GFS was showing formation days before it went into open waters. Soon, other models, such as NOGAPS, GFDN, ect, started to pick up on this system while a few runs of the EURO model dissipated it.

Over the past day or so, most of the computer models have agreed on location for this system to strike, and that was the south Caribbean, with the storm eventually hitting Mexico or Texas. The latest model runs have shown the storm heading more northward than before, and start to turn WNW or NW after a few days. This situation could pose a threat to many Caribbean islands, including the Antilles and Puerto Rico in the short term. My track for this advisory uses most of the models, except the GFDL and the EURO, which both have lost the system at one point or another.

As for intensification, while TD4 could become a TS later today, Easterly shear should hinder further development of this system in the short term. However, when it gets into the Caribbean, expect intensification, possibly rapid.

That being said, I believe that Tropical Depression 4, soon to be Tropical Storm Dean, should take a westward path for a couple of days, before taking a gradual turn to the WNW. This should bring the storm to Puerto Rico by this upcoming weekend, and possibly earlier.

Strength wise, I believe that TD4 has top winds of about 35 MPH, with gusts to around TS strength. I also believe the current pressure to be around 1005 MB.

As for the storm’s location, I am using the NHC’s location for this advisory for the center of TD4. The center pinpointed at 31.6W and 12.N. It is currently heading westward at about 20 MPH.

Compared to the NHC Advisory at 11:00AMEDT this morning, my forecast cone shows TD4 moving across the Atlantic at a slightly slower speed than they think.

INITIAL 35 MPH
12HR 40 MPH
24HR 45 MPH
48HR 55 MPH
72HR 65 MPH
96HR 80 MPH
120HR 95 MPH



Next Forecast will be tonight

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,in this thread we will be posting all the global models runs for TD4.

[artist]

it is getting confusing, particularly with 2 possible systems out there at different strengths going on thus 2 different places to look. I could see some getting tied up in this one and not even realizing there is another possible threat out there.

[destruction92]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike.

They are? Based on what?

Well, the majority of the posters are from Texas and Louisianna and there is an extra strong subtropical ridge which will cover the Southeast blocking the East Coast and Florida from any significant impact...at least what I'm picking up from reading through the forum the past several days.

[Fego]

I'm locked!!!
Seems to me that it will be neccesary to open two or more Storm2k pages to follow the action.

[mf_dolphin]

This is not the thread to discuss the changes. We do have a Suggestion forum if you'd like to comment on the change. Please get on subject.

[Trader Ron]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?5day#contents

T.S at 8PM tonight..

[Trader Ron]

Oops ..sorry..

[fci]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike.

Right now, there is uncertainty of where this will go after 3-5 days.

Models initially had it north of the islands and the last few days tracking south of the islands into Yucatan/Mexico/ Western GOM.

Now, the first advisory shows a bending WNW towards Haiti and even the Southern Coast of PR if it is a little further North.

Please try to not to make comments like:
"I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike".

If you live in Texas= true statement
If you live in Fl= Not a true statement

Unless of course you have statistics of active membership in S2K to validate your statement. If you do I will apollogize to you!

So, I am not going to get into a GOM vs. FL arguement which I doubt you intend to do either.
Let's just see.