2007: an inactive season?

[Frank2]

I hope MiamiensisWx wasn't referring to my posts - personally, I'm glad, except for Dean and Felix, that due to a large TUTT feature, the season has been less than expected - considering how crazy things are here in South Florida on an average day, the last thing we need is an approaching hurricane...

An old native Miamian friend of mine would often tell me the story of when he was a child, and, how he and his brother would sit on the living room couch and watch the South Florida hurricanes of 1960, '64 and '65 through the living room window, but, at that time (they lived across from the airport in Miami Springs - those who have lived here might know where that is), the Everglades was just one mile west of their house (it's now about 15), so, as irrational as it might sound, the low South Florida population of that time made the hurricane experience more "enjoyable" than the chaos of today's crowded South Florida during a similar experience, so, if I dread something coming this way today, it's for that very reason, among many others...

P.S. My old friend's family (I was best man at his wedding) are true natives to this area - around 1915, his Mom's family deeded a very large parcel of land to developer George Sebring (which became today's City of Sebring)...

[dwg71]

For the US interests, its been a very,very mild season. For Mexican intrests its been devastating.

13 named storms is on the high end of an average season. The 4 hurricanes and 2 majors are very average for a season.

Lets see how we finish out before defining the 2007 season.

[Sanibel]

This season will become even more interesting if the pattern changes and a deep, moist system forms.

[Steve]

...that due to a large TUTT feature, the season has been less than expected -

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree. There has been no permanent TUTT feature this season. There have been upper troughs (all of which split) from time time to time, but there has been equal the upper high pressure as there have been TUTT's. Only in strong El Nino years have I ever seen a semi-permanent TUTT feature in the SW Atlantic or W Caribbean. JMO
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>>Lets see how we finish out before defining the 2007 season.

Ditto.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

you CANNOT even consider removing Dean and Felix to determine the ACE

if you remove Frances and Ivan from 2004, you get a below average season. Makes as much sense to remove them as it does Dean and Felix

[Frank2]

I'd have to agree with you Steve, though in the past couple of weeks, it seems to be a larger feature than just the individual troughs - which appeared just in time to receive (or dissipate) the La Nina systems...

[Sanibel]

Well something has been shearing those systems on a regular basis over the last month. I would say the argument for a permanent feature is stronger, at this point, than what exactly hair-splitting type of feature it is.

[Steve]

>>I'd have to agree with you Steve, though in the past couple of weeks, it seems to be a larger feature than just the individual troughs - which appeared just in time to receive (or dissipate) the La Nina systems...

I'm not sure it's a "feature" per se but more like multiple features. As domes of high pressures hit the Atlantic and upper troughs nosed southwestward through them or behind them (west), they have been on the immediate west side of wave and surface trough energy. As they split, the waves have evolved (in most cases) as they pulled westward as upper conditions improved (= pattern reversal). I don't know of any long-term water vapor loops that I can show you as RAMSIS has stopped updating the week(s) long one they used to run (or moved it somewhere off my archives). However, as you can see on the Goes 12 Hurricane Sector WV still shot, there is no such feature at the moment except for the upper trough splitting SW back toward the Pacific in which 90L appears to be embedded:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

>>Well something has been shearing those systems on a regular basis over the last month. I would say the argument for a permanent feature is stronger, at this point, than what exactly hair-splitting type of feature it is.

Then I would challenge you to find it on the map. That's not going to happen as it is not about hair-splitting at all. It's about the season. Roughly it goes like this:

El Nino years (warmer EPAC): You have TUTTs and semi-permanent features that sit out there in the West Atlantic. One very odd season (not sure what ENSO conditions were) was 2000 where there was a extreme bias southerly jet with a short TUTT over the Caribbean much of the season).

Neutral Years: Generally a combination concentric upper level lows and TUTT features with most TUTTs splitting and not being very permanent. This year's TUTTs have all split as development generally occurred behind them as pattern reversal kicked in. This was easily seen in almost all of the West Gulf systems that impacted Mexico and Texas as rapidly improving conditions allowed for increased potential and then final tightening upon interaction of the center with land.

La Nina: The stronger the La Nina, generally the more concentric upper lows moving around the basin. There can still be TUTT features, but they tend to be limited as they are actually often found on the CONUS west of the Mississippi and splitting back to the Pacific Ocean. Not saying there can't be any, but you're more likely to see circular ULL's migrating around than a TUTT feature.

None of this is to be considered remotely science, but instead, observed phenomina over the last 8 or so years.

Steve

[tolakram]

How can anyone predict how active this season will be until it's over. Personally I'm sick of hearing climatology, ACE, number of storms, etc. I believe the ACE index tells the tale and when the season is done ACE will show an above average season. This bit about subtracting two cat 5 canes to come up with a low ACE is beyond silly. Subtract every storm that formed this year and you'll get a very low ACE. How about that!

La Nina seasons usually (always?) have a Oct-Nov cat 3 or greater hurricane, this will bump up the ACE index even more. I suppose if it doesn't hit the US or is otherwise 'boring' we should subtract it and call the season a bust?

[TheEuropean]

I think 2007 is an active season and many people here in europe think the same. I heard people on the street talking about this active season, about the intense hurricanes this year in the caribbean. They talked about Felix and Dean, not about No.10 or Ingrid. Yes, most storms this year were/are short lived, but for this short life some of the storms will be remembered for years. And wait untill this season is really over...

The European

[Steve]

>>This bit about subtracting two cat 5 canes to come up with a low ACE is beyond silly.

Consider the source. Matt is an okay poster, but he does put out some wild stuff from time to time for whatever reason.

Steve

[DanKellFla]

For the US interests, its been a very,very mild season. For Mexican intrests its been devastating.

13 named storms is on the high end of an average season. The 4 hurricanes and 2 majors are very average for a season.

Lets see how we finish out before defining the 2007 season.

Exactly. In another thread, I did say that this season has been thankfull dull for the U.S. But that 2 Cat 5s that make landfall is anything but dull. Off the top of my head, I think that is an extrodinary event.

['CaneFreak]

Let's put it this way- for people who do field research during hurricanes, this has not been a good year for them. Last year too. But, 2004 and 2005 provided plenty of data to mull over for years to come...

That would include my group. Also includes any university or private research firm with a mobile network of wind instruments, etc. To study hurricanes at landfall along the U.S. coast, we need hurricanes to make landfall. Just looking strictly at that statement, it has been a dud season along the U.S. coast. That is just the way it goes- can't do anything about it. We'll just have to be patient.

Thats all I was saying. Thanks for understanding. Field research is the only way we can collect REAL data. Its hard to figure out what the wind is doing out over the water when you dont have buoys sitting at every possible spot in the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, from a physical data collection standpoint, I do not know how you can say that this year has been an excellent year for research when we have NO PHYSICAL DATA to go on. Most systems stayed out to sea and we learned nothing from it because there were no ground observations made. THATS ALL I AM SAYING. You cant collect accurate data when every storm goes out to sea. Sure, we can model the data through the modern day computer power but IT IS NOT EXACT. The only way you can get physical data that we can go on is through field observations. That is why we send recon in to collect physical data. However, they are only in the storm but for so long and then they are gone. All that wasted time!!!! I hope you see my point now. If it doesnt make landfall, then we have very LITTLE physical data on that particular system other than the recon's observations and any few buoys that pass through the path of the storm. If you dont have PHYSICAL data, then how can we become more accurate with hurricane forecasts? We need the world's smartest engineers to figure out a way to collect real-time data in the storm throughout its entirety. Until then, we will suffer from the lack of sufficient physical data that we can go on to help the meteorological community make better predictions.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As an amateur- I did some reflecting:
Changing my mind from quiet to active

Been very active this year- in fact record breaking
explosive over the caribbean...and that caribbean
record breaking may continue through october...wilma???


In retrospect this year is similar to 2005:
-Many short live systems
-As of October 2 category 5s: Rita/Katrina
Except this year it was Felix/Dean
One less category 5 than 2005 but it has been very close to record
breaking
-Lorenzo and Humberto were very powerful in their intensification rates


Again though there are many on here (including me) who are NOT EXPERTS or
NOT VERY WELL EXPERIENCED/SKILLED so Please go easy on me even if
my amateur thoughts get repititive or annoying because I honestly did NOT
know of my mistakes at the time because I am JUST an amateur after all.
BUT I will try to be less repetitive/annoying.

Anyway though, good scientific stuff in this thread.

[MiamiensisWx]

Frank2,

You were the last person in my thoughts when I compiled this post. I actually believe you are a fine poster. Personally, I'm not enthusiastic about more landfalls (too many areas are vulnerable; I'm a Floridian, too!), but I can understand those who are interested in the dynamics of TC landfalls and wish for United States hurricanes (i.e. chasers). Additionally, I completely agree with 'CaneFreak that the on-site landfall research is invaluable, and this season has been dull in the United States from that angle. The original purpose of this thread was directed toward those who say the season is a "dud", "wasted", etc. without providing specific details about their position. Do they view 2007 from the sparse United States landfalls, or do they believe the season (itself as a whole part) is dull? If it's the former case (especially if they intercept landfalls), it is true; if it's the latter case, it is false. I wanted to refute the myths about the whole season's "dullness" proposed from the latter points of view.

Finally, I think Humberto (an interesting system) caused some significant local damage, so I wouldn't say the United States has been completely off the hook.

I hope this synopsis "cleared the air".

['CaneFreak]

Yes it did. Glad we are all on the same page.

[Category 5]

With out those cat5s this season would have 10.479 Ace, it would be a shoe in for the record lowest ace in recorded history.

But Dean and Felix DID happen, they didn't hit the U.S, deal with it. The bias is astounding. Hate to break it to alot of you, but the CONUS isn't the only landmass in the basin.

And the people who live in areas that are ACTUALLY AFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES. Aren't complaining.

[Cyclone1]

With out those cat5s this season would have 10.479 Ace, it would be a shoe in for the record lowest ace in recorded history.

But Dean and Felix DID happen, they didn't hit the U.S, deal with it. The bias is astounding. Hate to break it to alot of you, but the CONUS isn't the only landmass in the basin.

And the people who live in areas that are ACTUALLY EFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES. Aren't complaining.

Thank you!

[JTD]

With out those cat5s this season would have 10.479 Ace, it would be a shoe in for the record lowest ace in recorded history.

But Dean and Felix DID happen, they didn't hit the U.S, deal with it. The bias is astounding. Hate to break it to alot of you, but the CONUS isn't the only landmass in the basin.

And the people who live in areas that are ACTUALLY EFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES. Aren't complaining.

Thank you!

That would be "affected"/not "effected". Effect is to cause something to happen, while affect is the result of something happening.

And yes I am a Grammar nazi. Deal with it

[JTD]

As an amateur- I did some reflecting:
Changing my mind from quiet to active

Been very active this year- in fact record breaking
explosive over the caribbean...and that caribbean
record breaking may continue through october...wilma???


In retrospect this year is similar to 2005:
-Many short live systems
-As of October 2 category 5s: Rita/Katrina
Except this year it was Felix/Dean
One less category 5 than 2005 but it has been very close to record
breaking
-Lorenzo and Humberto were very powerful in their intensification rates


Again though there are many on here (including me) who are NOT EXPERTS or
NOT VERY WELL EXPERIENCED/SKILLED so Please go easy on me even if
my amateur thoughts get repititive or annoying because I honestly did NOT
know of my mistakes at the time because I am JUST an amateur after all.
BUT I will try to be less repetitive/annoying.

Anyway though, good scientific stuff in this thread.

Emily was a cat 5 as well on post analysis. So that makes it 3 cat 5's by October 2nd.

Agree that this year is a lot like 2005. And if we hadn't shear in the right place at the right time, we could have gotten to the greek alphabet again.