Hurricane Season Coming to an End!

[DanKellFla]

DON'T COUNT THE SEASON OVER YET !!!!! REMEMBER WILMA !!!! BACK IN 2005 WE HAD STORMS GOING UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS !!!!

This is not 2005, it is 2007, much different setup. Their is a reason why most of the storms of 2007 are dead after two days.

Patterns can change in the blink of an eye.

2005 was a unique season in terms of number of storms, days of storms, strength of storms and landfalls of storms. The question that really remains is how unique was it. Is it a "out-there" data point or is it something that should be expected every few decades. Only time will tell.

[Frank2]

There were the 1933 and 1969 seasons that were similiar to 2005, so, there was a 30 or 40 year gap between the three events....

It'd be a gross error to assume that every season would be the same, but, it seems that many did accept that as reasonable in 2006 and 2007 (or, as mentioned in 2005, it'd be the same for at least for the next 10-15 years), which was similar to the NWS forecasting a "90% chance of rain today" - solely because it rained all day the day before, and, the thinking was "If the same weather pattern is there today as it was yesterday, then, the same result will take place"...

I can't count how many times that has happened to the NWS - only for it not to rain the next day! So, while something may happen one time, does not mean that it will the next (didn't Einstein have something to say about this very topic?)...

Hopefully, forecasters will learn from this error, since many are likely not to believe any "active season anticipated" forecasts next year...

[DanKellFla]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190928
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Thank you Mr. Knabb.....

Nothing is impossible, but it doesn't look like there is a good chance for any more action.

[hurricanetrack]

GFS shows one possibility for development that is realistic. Ironically, it is out in the deep tropics- though not too deep- but still south of 20 degrees- in a few days.

Otherwise, I guess people will continue to say that we have plenty of hurricane season left, which is technically correct, but that's like saying that a college basketball team is down by 37 points with 3 minutes to go in the game. I suppose even in that situation, some loyal fan would say, "there is still plenty of time".

[hurricanetrack]

There were the 1933 and 1969 seasons that were similiar to 2005, so, there was a 30 or 40 year gap between the three events....

It'd be a gross error to assume that every season would be the same, but, it seems that many did accept that as reasonable in 2006 and 2007 (or, as mentioned in 2005, it'd be the same for at least for the next 10-15 years), which was similar to the NWS forecasting a "90% chance of rain today" - solely because it rained all day the day before, and, the thinking was "If the same weather pattern is there today as it was yesterday, then, the same result will take place"...

I can't count how many times that has happened to the NWS - only for it not to rain the next day! So, while something may happen one time, does not mean that it will the next (didn't Einstein have something to say about this very topic?)...

Hopefully, forecasters will learn from this error, since many are likely not to believe any "active season anticipated" forecasts next year...

I am not sure where all the references to 2005 are coming from. I for one was never thinking we would have 15 hurricanes again anytime soon. Nor did I think that 4 majors would hit the U.S. in a single year anytime soon. But what I did expect, because the meterology suggested it would be true, is that at least 6 hurricanes would form and probably as many as 8. We had two perfect hurricanes and two that made it in at the last possible moment and one that has not been officially declared yet. Is six hurricanes in the Atlantic asking for too much from now on? If so, then the current warm cycle theory of more Atlantic hurricanes has been rolled up. I guess global warming actually killed the hurricane- not helped it then.

[gatorcane]

I do think it is over folks now...see you next season. Maybe we will see a system north of 15N next year that is not sheared to death.....this season clearly has not lived up to expectations. We are a long way from understanding hurricanes.

[mitchell]

Mother nature has always surprises in stores (if this trend without any cane continues i will be glad ), she can refire at any time, we're just points on this earth... i'm thinking about the islands and thus any contry on this earth.
Given that my eyes have already seen on a tropical season, hope that we can have a more respectful and wide view of Mother nature and by extension life

I enjoyed reading your post. But how is taking a stab that this year's hurricane season may be over isn't disrespectful to mother nature Its just another guess at this point! By the way hopefully we're all more than "points" I'd like to think of myself of at least a data set or line segment

[Frank2]

It's no secret that the Earth is suffering the ravages of Man's abuse, but, how it is affecting it's climate is still hard to understand, if at all...

Is this causing the shear that unexpectedly reduced this season's activity - hard to say, though at least one scientist did speculate that perhaps the warming of the atmosphere in some way is increasing shear, which might help to explain this season.

And, since we are less than 2 weeks from November, it is discouraging to see the U.S. forecast map with such a large area of 80s (and even 90s), so, something is definitely not working properly as far as the Earth's climate is concerned...

But, again, we are greatful that last year or this did not turn out as forecast, since, as Derek mentioned yesterday, Florida did see no less than 8 hurricanes in just a two year (really, just an 18 month) period, so, glad that nothing did materialize, for sure, though everyone can use the rain...

Truly, it should even be considered a blessing that the past two years have been less than expected "up here", since two additional active seasons would have strained the country's already strained resources to the breaking point, so, it's a good day when something bad doesn't happen...

[mitchell]

And, since we are less than 2 weeks from November, it is discouraging to see the U.S. forecast map with such a large area of 80s (and even 90s), so, something is definitely not working properly as far as the Earth's climate is concerned...

And not just around the US...amazed how many people i talk to who have experienced noticable length growing seasons that they have adapted....in recent trips to California and Asia, and talking to Australians.

Locally, Crepe Myrtle (sp.) is noticably easier to winter over in the northern delmarva peninsula than it was as 30 years ago, and our growning season in Delaware is now allowing two tomato crops.

[gatorcane]

I agree with you Frank. The weather patterns are clearly changing across the globe. Things are alot warmer than they were decades ago and it is possible there is more shear now that may keep hurricanes in check.

I walked outside today here in Boca Raton and it felt exactly like a summer day in August. Very humid, afternoon pops developing over the everglades. Clearly global warming is becoming apparent.

and...no cold front is expected to swing through the SE US in the forseeable future....

it is all scaring me...big time.

Speaking about growing seasons, I think coconut and royal palms may grown now as far north as Tampa/Melbourne line since the climate is warmer in FL. This pattern is very reminiscent of the 1920s-1940s.....when Royal Palms used to line Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa until a major freeze hit in the 1950s.....

[Frank2]

It's likely some in the business would read this thread and say, "Temperature increases are part of a normal cycle, nothing has changed", but, centuries ago, the Earth did not carry the multitudes that are living on it today (hard to believe, but, in my own lifetime, the Earth's population has doubled), and, prior to the industrial revolution (I prefer to call it revolting industry, but...), there were only nature-based emissions into the atmosphere (primarily ash from forest fires), so, as a layman, I'd have to disagree with their "normal cycle" way of making sense of what is happening...

Still, even with the population increase, the environment would still be fine, if only Man would do things as God meant them to be done...

The Earth can only handle so much abuse - something had to give, and it is...

Interestingly, the small office park where I work has recently been abound with small animals living within the food chain, as they always did - just this past week, we noticed a very small bird (Bobolink) with an equally small Lizard in it's mouth, a Squirrel with a Bobolink in it's mouth, a very large Iguana having a meal of leaves from a nearby bush, and, a large Egret searching for a possible meal from almost all of the above, so, that gives me hope that things are still working, even if Man continues to resist...

Well, at least we can all say our love for weather is a good thing in our lives (from what I've always been told, it's a gift from God), so that should give us comfort - many people don't even bother to notice the sky (unless it hits them on the head)...

LOL

[Sanibel]

It's been oppressively warm and humid here lately. Unseasonably so. It could be the Nina.

[Blown Away]

Can anybody think of any late season la nina storms?

[Javlin]

Well It has been rather nice up here on the NGOM late "not hot" and may seem a tad early but I am sure it is just on time.The season is over as far as anything affecting the CONUS I think to many cool fronts coming through lately one every 7-10 days.We have been hardly running the A/C and windows open at night cannot complain.

[Category 5]

Can anybody think of any late season la nina storms?

Hazel, Mitch, and Lenny off the top of my head.

[HURAKAN]

[Toadstool]

Excellent! 2006, 2007... To this I say "Threepeat!"

[vbhoutex]

I think some people would argue about a threepeat of this season. Humberto and Erin(flooded OK) come to mind as CONUS problems many could have done without. Past that, Felix and Dean are the names and I don't think I need to say more.

As far as the season coming to an end, I will never say it is over till it is "officially" over, especially after racing back to Houston in 1989 to beat Hurricane Jerry home(late october) with 11 high schoolers in a church van.

I do however agree that with each passing day it becomes less and less likely that there would be a CONUS hit the rest of this season. However, just because there is no CONUS hit does not a season end!!

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like the October forecast of 4/2/1 from CSU will end up being 0/0/0 after looking at the global model suite. As I said in many posts over the last many weeks, it appears that we are stuck in this unfavorable pattern and nothing looks to be coming along to change that. Perhaps the La Nina influence is not as influential after all. This could go down as quite a bad seasonal forecast season for SCU, NOAA and others who thought there would be more HURRICANES than we have seen. I do not care if there were 68 named storms- if the hurricanes aren't forming, then something is amiss.

[HURAKAN]

To be fair, it was October-November!

But I agree, it has been a bust for these agencies. Nonetheless, I take this kind of bust against the opposite!!!