Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

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JonathanBelles
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#21 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Nov 01, 2007 3:50 pm

Looks like upper 50's low 60's for lows coming.
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#22 Postby Johnny » Thu Nov 01, 2007 8:02 pm

If this arctic air does make it down to my neck of the woods...I would expect temperatures colder than 35 during the overnight hours if we have clear skies and light winds. I've already gotten down to 35 last week without any arctic air.
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#23 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Nov 01, 2007 8:10 pm

Johnny wrote:If this arctic air does make it down to my neck of the woods...I would expect temperatures colder than 35 during the overnight hours if we have clear skies and light winds. I've already gotten down to 35 last week without any arctic air.
Yes, if the EURO or CMC solutions pan out, then I think a frost would be a good bet all the way south to the northern suburbs of Houston. Might even be set up for a light freeze in the Conroe area considering you guys are usually quite a bit colder up there. Definitely could get interesting (and cold)! :cold:
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#24 Postby Opal storm » Thu Nov 01, 2007 9:26 pm

Mobile AFD said they will wait a little longer for more consistency out of the models to make any downward adjustments to the temps for next week. Right now their just calling for a minor cool down for us.
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#25 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 02, 2007 6:04 am

If the current NWS forecast was to play out, then my prediction for highs would be correct, but my prediction for lows would not be...

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.


67˚ high = 8-degrees below normal
48˚ low = 4-degrees below normal
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#26 Postby Johnny » Fri Nov 02, 2007 8:58 am

I guess that had to do with some cloud cover hanging around. Cool cloudy days sounds good to me!
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#27 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Nov 02, 2007 3:06 pm

I have decided to update my prediction (as any good amaeture weather watcher would do) after re-evaluating the situation based on the latest trends. My current projections are as follows...


Tuesday night = Depending on cloud cover, I believe we will see temperatures at least 5˚ below normal (meaning 47˚ or colder).

Wednesday = I am still aiming for at least 7˚ below normal (meaning 68˚ or colder for the high).

Wednesday night = This is the one I am starting to have trouble with. It will all hinge on the speed/location of the high. For the moment I will say at least 5˚ below normal (meaning 47˚ or colder), but I may have to get either more or less aggressive in the future.

BTW: I do currently think the NWS is too warm. It looks like they just copied and pasted the MOS guidance this afternoon, and considering the MOS is much warmer than the operational models, their forecast is probably a few degrees too high.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#28 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Nov 02, 2007 3:08 pm

Looks like via the GFS, I will be quite a bit below average.
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#29 Postby Scorpion » Fri Nov 02, 2007 6:02 pm

Wow, its down into the mid 60's now and headed for the mid-upper 50's tonight here. Thats a huge change.
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Opal storm

Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#30 Postby Opal storm » Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:39 pm

Our NWS now has upper 30's coming down into rural areas north of I-10 in the panhandle.
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#31 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:41 pm

Opal storm wrote:Our NWS now has upper 30's coming down into rural areas north of I-10 in the panhandle.


Florida needs to be split into to different states. :lol:
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#32 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:06 am

Red Wing, Minnesota (SE MN)

Monday: Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 39.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 40.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 40.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Only thing missing is snow. :(

Average is 47/31.
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#33 Postby Portastorm » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:03 am

As of Saturday morning, the Austin NWS is predicting a high of 63 degrees on Tuesday which would be 12 degrees BELOW normal. I would categorize that as "cold" relative to what we are experiencing now. So, all in all, your prediction right now EWG is looking good in my book. :wink:
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#34 Postby Aquawind » Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:00 pm

Confirmed invasion here in SW Florida even. The driest air in months with lows into the mid/upper 50's and highs forecast in the upper 70's next week. 8-)
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#35 Postby Portastorm » Sun Nov 04, 2007 4:40 pm

Pretty chilly-looking run from today's 12z GFS ... don'tcha think?

[img]Image[/img]
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#36 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:20 pm

bring it on, that was a nice taste we had a couple of weeks ago
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#37 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:23 pm

Portastorm wrote:Pretty chilly-looking run from today's 12z GFS ... don'tcha think?

[img]Image[/img]
lol. Well that would definitely be a dream come true...a potentially snowy/icy mid November day. However, I am not going to be getting my hopes up just yet. The GFS has already thrown this trick at us once this year and until I see it within the 7-day range, I ain't buyin' it!

:froze:
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#38 Postby rsdoug1981 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 5:31 pm

The 12z Euro is pretty similar.

Image
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Opal storm

Re: Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

#39 Postby Opal storm » Sun Nov 04, 2007 8:17 pm

Check out this forecast for inland NW Florida.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

:cold:
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#40 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 04, 2007 8:48 pm

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North northeast wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North northeast wind around 13 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind between 11 and 13 mph.

:lol: :lol:
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