Convection between Jamaica and Honduras

[boca]

If this were to develop it wouldn't be a threat to the US because the eastern half of the country is under a northerly flow keeping whatever forms down there to stay there in move into Central America.

A week from now that could change, no???

Yes it could change but this area has to sit around and fester for the next week.Wednesday another cold front will be sweeping across Florida keeping the flow northerly.

[StormTracker]

If this were to develop it wouldn't be a threat to the US because the eastern half of the country is under a northerly flow keeping whatever forms down there to stay there in move into Central America.

A week from now that could change, no???

Yes it could change but this area has to sit around and fester for the next week.Wednesday another cold front will be sweeping across Florida keeping the flow northerly.

Well I guess it is really that time of year! Front, after front, after front! I did notice the winds changed coming out of the north since Noel moved out!!! I guess I'll go fly a kite!!! LOL!!!

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Most signs point towards TC formation...Invest likely on Saturday..I think this becomes OLGA early next week and wil likley move over Nicarauga..Slight chance it stays out over the water for the next week..

Expectations

(1)Invest Saturday by 5PM
(2)Recon Confirms TD Monday
(3) TS Monday night/Tuesday peaks at 60mph
(4) Over central america Tuesday night/Wednesday

**This is a high confidence forecast

[hial2]

Most signs point towards TC formation...Invest likely on Saturday..I think this becomes OLGA early next week and wil likley move over Nicarauga..Slight chance it stays out over the water for the next week..

Expectations

(1)Invest Saturday by 5PM
(2)Recon Confirms TD Monday
(3) TS Monday night/Tuesday peaks at 60mph
(4) Over central america Tuesday night/Wednesday

**This is a high confidence forecast

Could just as easily be drawn north by the strong front brought by Noel.. What do you base your high confidence forecast on?

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
HURRICANE NOEL...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF
BERMUDA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON NOEL IS INCLUDED PRIMARILY IN
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACES OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LITTLE MOTION OR A WESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Continues to get interesting!!!

[boca]

This low will not go north because of the northerly flow around the western side of Noel.Also coldfronts will be moving south keeping whatever is down there on a stationary or west track into Central America.

[hial2]

This low will not go north because of the northerly flow around the western side of Noel.Also coldfronts will be moving south keeping whatever is down there on a stationary or west track into Central America.

If anything, the "alley" created by Noel in the high pressure ridge should make whatever form follow it northward

[GCANE]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007



CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACES OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1007 MB...HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE MOTION OR A
WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL. LIGHTNING DATA IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NE HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA AS WELL
AS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED...
MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH. COOL/DRY AIR IS ALSO
INVADING WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

[StormTracker]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007



CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACES OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1007 MB...HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE MOTION OR A
WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL. LIGHTNING DATA IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NE HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA AS WELL
AS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED...
MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH. COOL/DRY AIR IS ALSO
INVADING WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

I'm just curious as to why no Pro-Mets have jumped in on this disco yet! Wxman57, Derek, we trust you guyz more than ever now since the Noel scenario, care to give us a little insight on what Boca thinks versus GCANE & everybody else who has a different opinion about the direction this thing might go(no offense Boca)? Just trying to learn how all this stuff works!!!

[punkyg]

loooky looky!

[StormTracker]

Ok, so is the fat lady's name gonna be OLGA or PABLO(pa-blow)or maybe even REBEKAH???

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030210
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

New Invest soon? Hurricane season is certainly not done by any means!!!

[RL3AO]

Convection is gone.

[Thunder44]

Convection is gone.

It's firing up again this morning. I can see rotation near near 15N 81W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Convection has increased significantly and rotation is clearly visible on the loop.

Loop

[WmE]

Looks interesting for sure. It may have a shot.

[HURAKAN]

Invest 91L is up: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=98926&hilit=&p=1663779