INVEST 91L : Caribbean : Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

[Sanibel]

Wxman57:

Any chance of this thing bouncing north and towards us?

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Interesting. Noel goes east and north. 91L goes west and south. No rain for Sanibel.


Let's see if that chart nudges a little north.

[HURAKAN]

[Frank2]

Sanibel,

Perhaps the professional folks can shed some light on this, but, there is a cold front (a Texas blue norther, actually) forecast to move southeastward across the Gulf and Florida by Tuesday, so, I suppose it depends on whether the system will linger or move onshore Central America before the pre-frontal trough moves far enough south to pick up what might form:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif

[GCANE]

This became an Invest quiker than I thought. With convection dropping last night, I thought NHC would call it an Invest later in the weekend.

VIS Sat shows convection firing over the center of the surface low.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 15&lon=-82

UL Winds are about 20 knots over the center, which is displacing the convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

It has found an opportunity to develop in a pocket of low shear:



I don't see rapid intensification with this in the immediate future since it is not sitting directly under an UL High.



I need to wait and see the NHC Floater come up to get a reading on Lifting Index.

[HURAKAN]

The intensity of the convection is decreasing but the organization of the system continues.

[btangy]

Heat content in this region of the Caribbean is still quite high, so thermodynamically, there is still quite a bit of energy to be harvested by this system. Wouldn't surprise me if it developed quickly.

[wxman57]

Wxman57:

Any chance of this thing bouncing north and towards us?

Nope. Storms like Mexico or Central America this year, it appears.

[HURAKAN]

Wxman57:

Do you have a surface analysis for this one? They're always great!!!

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

It probably formed because the SW steering currents pulled it away from Noel's influence. You can see a solid EPAC flow on that steering current map. No chance on it coming north.

[gatorcane]

Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!

[gatorcane]

This time of year we really have to watch these systems...because fronts can pull them N quickly.

[CourierPR]

Good call GCANE.

You called this thing developing before anybody on this board, even the pro mets.

Hats off to you!

Nice pat on the back for yourself.

[CourierPR]

This time of year we really have to watch these systems...because fronts can pull them N quickly.

Apparently, that's not in the cards for this system.

[wxman57]

Wxman57:

Do you have a surface analysis for this one? They're always great!!!

Here's a 17Z analysis. May bet a few more obs at 18Z. It appears to be moving faster than 3 kts, so it may not have more than another 36 hours over water.

[gatorcane]

Wxman I disagree. Looks like it is just crawling West.....

[wxman57]

Wxman I disagree. Looks like it is just crawling West.....

Hard to tell as there's not much to focus on. I'll try to run along loop and get an estimate. I can put my cursor anywhere on the image and advance the image a few hours then measure the distance covered.