Hurricane Charley Question

[CrazyC83]

Go to http://ams.allenpress.com and search for Powells BAMS article

As for Charley, had it have had 3-4 hours over the water, it likely would have been sheared apart and *could* have even weakened quickly below cat 3 status. Remember, when it reached Orlando, it was sheared apart and spared the city far worse destruction than it otherwise would have received

Another interesting finding in that link - it estimates Camille was a 127 kt Cat 4 at landfall (probably was 135 kt since the highest winds were likely not analyzed), not a Cat 5...

[Derek Ortt]

H-Wind does analyze the highest winds

127KT for Camielle fits in with other NGOM landfalls, based upon a crude pressure to wind relationship

as for Charley, had the trough been farther back, it never would have underwent RI. It intensified due to the trough and the trough advecting PV over the storm (see Hanley et al., 2001 for more info on trough interaction)

[Orlando_wx]

well sheared system or not in orlando charley still brought us 70mph winds for us for hours enough for me.

John

[jinftl]

Has there been any analysis done on what would have happened if Katrina had spent a few more hours off the coast of Miami & Fort Lauderdale...could it have gone through a rapid intensification before landfall? Seems like it was heading in that direction right before landfall on the Dade/Broward line.

[Derek Ortt]

I think Felix showed what would have happened had Katrina had 12 more hours over the water.

It likely would have easily reached 100KT

Of far greater concern is that the lower Keys likely would have went underwater as it would have been a little farther south and at cat 3 or greater intensity when it made its closest approach to KW. With no way to evacuate we know what would have happened (though we came a mere 5 miles from seeing that scenario play out during Wilma)

[HurricaneBill]

Derek, just out of curiosity, how high was the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane's surge?

[jinftl]

So in essence, it sounds like a nightmare scenario...a major hurricane developing all of a sudden and bearing down on a surge prone area that did not prepare adequately...i can't even imagine the damage and death toll, and the political fallout of what agencies would inevitably be blamed for not sounding the alarm and getting everyone prepared.

...but unlike katrina when she was in the gulf, the challenge in the keys (and the rest of south fla) would have been getting everyone prepared for a nightmare scenario when katrina was still a tropical storm...i remember having to work the day Katrina hit because my company, like many, stayed open...there were many cars driving home from work on I-95 when the eye of katrina was less than 30 miles off of fort lauderdale...when Cat 1 gusts began. Not good.

Derek, would you consider the disaster narrowly avoided with Katrina in the Keys one of the closest calls in recent history going with the 'if the storm had spent just a few more hours offshore'?

I think Felix showed what would have happened had Katrina had 12 more hours over the water.

It likely would have easily reached 100KT

Of far greater concern is that the lower Keys likely would have went underwater as it would have been a little farther south and at cat 3 or greater intensity when it made its closest approach to KW. With no way to evacuate we know what would have happened (though we came a mere 5 miles from seeing that scenario play out during Wilma)

[brunota2003]

I remember watching the video from Mark's truck, and he was really surprised with all the traffic out too. And where the power was out at stoplights, people just drove on through like it was nothing.

Hint: At ANY stoplight where the power is out, you are supposed to treat it as a 4-way stop.

[Derek Ortt]

Wilma was far closer because it was a major hurricane. The eyewall and 125 mph only missed KW by 5 miles. Remember, 22,000 people thought they knew more than the mets and stayed

Marathon received a 10 foot surge and cat 1 winds (KW was similar, though I believe the surge was ~7 feet). Had the cat 3 winds hit, the surge likely would have been doubled and we could have lost more than Katrina

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That's why I would evacuate in any storm surge above 5 feet because at
5 feet or so the street will flood and at 9 feet the water comes into the
house.
Tropical Storm Frances (It was a Tropical Storm when it moved
over Tampa Bay) brought the waters up to the street level and that
is with a TS (that must have been a 4 foot surge or 5 foot surge), a Category 1 would likely flood my house, and a Category 2+,
gut it out or collapse it.

Tropical Storm Surge: 4-6 feet
Category 1 Surge: 6-8 feet
Category 2 Surge: 8-10 feet
Category 3 Surge: 10+ feet (1921 Hurricane Magnitude)
For the western side of tampa bay.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Regarding Hurricane Charley, the surge was relatively low
for a category 4 hurricane due to its small windfield.
But the central core of winds was very destructive near the
eyewall, sustained at 150 mph at landfall in SW Florida, with
gusts to 180+ mph along the immediate beaches.

[MiamiensisWx]

Derek, just out of curiosity, how high was the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane's surge?

The 1935 hurricane produced a maximum surge of 18 feet in the upper Keys (Upper Matecumbe to Long Key, FL). It is very impressive for this TC, since it was a Charley-sized hurricane that rapidly intensified prior to landfall on Craig Key. A recent reanalysis determined that its RMW was roughly seven (?) miles. The 892 mb central pressure and narrow wind radii suggests sustained winds of 155-160 kt (180-185 mph) at landfall, which supports the conclusions of the study (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf). Breaking waves added significant height to the actual surge. It should be noted that the strong northerly winds and bathymetry originally pushed water away from the islands, but the return of onshore winds after the center's passage flooded the previously safe locations SW of the eye. NE of the eye, water overtopped the railroad embankment prior to center's arrival.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Felix showed what would have happened had Katrina had 12 more hours over the water.

It likely would have easily reached 100KT

Of far greater concern is that the lower Keys likely would have went underwater as it would have been a little farther south and at cat 3 or greater intensity when it made its closest approach to KW. With no way to evacuate we know what would have happened (though we came a mere 5 miles from seeing that scenario play out during Wilma)

Many people were caught off guard when Katrina hit South Florida, which I have seen in videos. It was quite a rainmaker too.

[KWT]

Yeah i agree with Derek Katrina was bombing just as it was moving into Florida it was developing very rapidly, I remember thinking if it doesn't get inland soon this could well make it to cat-2, its a similar situation with Humberto last season as well.

[jinftl]

This clip shows what the conditions were like as Katrina came onshore in south florida...unbelievable that people were driving around in this...i think that day gave folks a new understanding that even Cat 1 gusts are damaging and dangerous.

...hopefully the 'it's only a Cat 1 so no big deal' attitude has been put to rest!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxgNuD5M9js

[Derek Ortt]

How much of the 1935 Keys surge was form Florida Bay? That body of water is only a few feet deep in most places

[Sanibel]

In the movie 'Key Largo' Lionel Barrymore tells Edward G Robinson that Matecumbe Key had 12 feet of surge sweep across it. How accurate that is I don't know. The government kept information about the storm down because it killed many members of the Bonus Army - WWI vets seeking backpay from the government. It was touchy because people were already angry at the government for routing them out of Washington. Sending them to a hellish death in the fiercest hurricane to ever hit the US was something they didn't want to advertize. That hurricane was probably responsible for the government giving in and sending the money to all WWI vets shortly after.



Charley had some flooding in downtown Ft Myers Beach, but the first 4 or 5 feet of a 7 foot surge just gets you over the dunes making it more like 2 feet on land. I saw TV footage of the surge from reporters stationed there and it was about 2 feet of calm surge between the condos. I read somewhere that Donna's surge was 18 feet on FMB.

Charley got seriously vented up the trough front. I think the combination of heavy August humidity (it was HUMID here then), high August SST's and the difference between high altitude conditions in the upper level along the front created a turbo charging effect that revved up Charley. When you get the upper winds pulling that humid air out of the eye and up the front it creates a smokestack effect that creates more feed into the 'stack'. The effect is like a wound up string being pulled away from a top.

[MGC]

Yes Charley was well ventilated as Sanibel said. I was just amazed that there was not more wind damage (trees snapped-uprooted) in the landfall area. Pehaps it is a wind-time element. I was in Charleston a few months after Hugo. I took the time to drive up US-17 north to view the damage. The tree damage was incredible, I estimate nearly 75% of the trees were either destroyed or damaged. I didn't observe such damage with Charley. Charley came and went quickly and the trees didn't fail like they did in Hugo. I'd say we had more tree damage in Katrina than Charley did due to the length of time the winds lasted in Katrina even though the winds were of less intensity.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

its also the type of tree

The Palm tree is able to survive the extreme winds of a hurricane easier than the northern trees

[MGC]

In my comparison I only compare trees of an identical species. Since pine is the most previlent tree common to the entire SE USA I look for them. I try not to use broadleaf trees because they tend to uproot and that is more a factor of soil moisture.....MGC