H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Any pro met knows if this mission that starts at 10:00 PM EDT tonight was canceled or is still on standby?

[Ed Mahmoud]

A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Any pro met knows if this mission that starts at 10:00 PM EDT tonight was canceled or is still on standby?

If I were King of the World, and fuel and personnel allowed it, I'd say 94L can wait 'til tomorrow, even if it does become a TD tonight with a surface circulation, and send the plane to the more immediate threat, 96L.



King of the Universe, I'd send two planes.

One to each invest.

[senorpepr]

A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Any pro met knows if this mission that starts at 10:00 PM EDT tonight was canceled or is still on standby?

I'm not in a position to confirm nor deny, but I'm apt to say it's dropped.

[cycloneye]

Well,they are going today.

[HurricaneHunter914]

There not going to find anything...

[Portastorm]

No kidding! Talk about a waste of gas ...

[cycloneye]

Maybe they have seen something that we dont know about and tiggered the decision to fly.

[HURAKAN]

There not going to find anything...

Showers and a few thunderstorms!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Or maybe it's going to rapidly intensify into a hurricane!
They should've of waited until there were signs of an LLC forming.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There not going to find anything...

That is the correct answer. But the other plane going to TD #3 probably finds a 40 or 50 knot Cristobal, if I had to guess.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It seems like people always question the NHC everytime they decide to fly into 94L. The truth is, the 00z GFDL and HWRF showed a category 5 hurricane smashing the United States in 5 days. Imagine the uproar if people thought the NHC was laid back on the situation and did not get all the data they could get to prepare everyone. I fully agree with this decision they have made. It's nice to have a steady hand at the wheel.

Better safe than sorry, but it doesn't look like they'll find anything. And the 0Z GFDL was initialized with crack cocaine, apparently.


I'll change my Avatar to Jeff Gordon's 24 car if this storm comes close to a Cat 5.

[CrazyC83]

A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Any pro met knows if this mission that starts at 10:00 PM EDT tonight was canceled or is still on standby?

If I were King of the World, and fuel and personnel allowed it, I'd say 94L can wait 'til tomorrow, even if it does become a TD tonight with a surface circulation, and send the plane to the more immediate threat, 96L.



King of the Universe, I'd send two planes.

One to each invest.

I'd send out three planes - one to Bertha.

[GeneratorPower]

Look, people, they are having to make the decision to fly or not fly several hours ahead of liftoff. If there is a possibility of needing the flight, they need to pull the trigger hours beforehand. Plus, it could look much better in the few hours before the plane makes it in.

They are dealing with lag time and playing it safe. They can't just say "oops, sorry I cancelled recon today, but there's a huge blowup and can you launch in 15 minutes?"

[wx247]

It seems like people always question the NHC everytime they decide to fly into 94L. The truth is, the 00z GFDL and HWRF showed a category 5 hurricane smashing the United States in 5 days. Imagine the uproar if people thought the NHC was laid back on the situation and did not get all the data they could get to prepare everyone. I fully agree with this decision they have made. It's nice to have a steady hand at the wheel.

Checking it now (when it doesn't appear to have a LLC) doesn't affect anything that happens 5 days from now. Beyond the people who frequent these weather boards, who cares about the Hurricane Hunters flying in? They do an amazing service and I thank them for that but the vast majority of the American public has no clue what they do. Does that make what they do unimportant? Certainly not. Neither does it justify your statement either.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Any pro met knows if this mission that starts at 10:00 PM EDT tonight was canceled or is still on standby?

If I were King of the World, and fuel and personnel allowed it, I'd say 94L can wait 'til tomorrow, even if it does become a TD tonight with a surface circulation, and send the plane to the more immediate threat, 96L.



King of the Universe, I'd send two planes.

One to each invest.

I'd send out three planes - one to Bertha.

Does the WC-130J have a receptacle for in flight refueling? After the Yom Kippur war, when European allies wouldn't let US planes land to refuel on their way to support Israel from Soviet backed Arab invaders, the C-141s had to fly with greatly reduced loads. After, a middle fuselage section was added to expand the plane, and that section had an inflight fueling receptacle.

I was Navy, not Air Force, so I don't know for sure, but since the C-130 is an older plane, and designed for shorter range transport missions, I suspect they were not built with an inflight refueling capacity.

So I'd guess any WC-130J would have to land in Bermuda to refuel, would still have limited loiter time, and, of course, at this point, Bertha is a fish.


Maybe if I were Emperor of the Known Universe I'd order a C-130K with in flight refueling, and attach a fleet of air tankers to the 53rd WRS. The proposed WC-130K would have crew accomadations to allow a second relief crew to sleep during the approach, and fly the actual storm. We could then investigate Cape Verde waves.


Of course, that would be an egregious waste of the taxpayers money, but what would I care, if I were Emperor of the Known Universe.

[americanrebel]

It's been a while, I don't remember what all the numbers on the RECON stands for, can someone please refresh my memory.

[x-y-no]

It's been a while, I don't remember what all the numbers on the RECON stands for, can someone please refresh my memory.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97379

[HURAKAN]

SFMR is finding winds of 35 knots and plus as the plane is entering the disturbance. There is only one key missing, a LLC!

[americanrebel]

It's been a while, I don't remember what all the numbers on the RECON stands for, can someone please refresh my memory.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97379

That is for drop sondes, I am talking about the recon numbers that we are seeing in the thread for recon.

[cycloneye]

There were a few +40kt readings in the last set as plane flys thru heavy thunderstorms.