Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[wx247]

I'm really starting to doubt development of this low because of how far north it is coming off. 15 north is to far north period.

I also highly doubt that the nhc will upgrade this as it is coming off.

Well, if that is the case then we should watch for a change in the NHC's wording in their outlook. Until then, I will tend to believe what they say.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 12W-24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 24W-29W.
$$
FORMOSA

[cycloneye]

You can see clearly the low and the circulation embedded with the convection in Senegal.

[wzrgirl1]

Here is a good view of the wave coming off Africa http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/g ... d=1&size=1

use this username and password to access it

username-England
password-atz538

i tried it and the password didn't work....on another note i tried to compare to 2005....and this point that year, we had 6 storms....and we could have our 5th in the next couple of days....only 1 off....eerie similar huh?

Why not just create your own account for FREE and you'll be able to view all of their satellite pix. I (and probably many other S2K members) have been using their service for years now.

I could do that....it was just easier to do it this way. Six one way....half a dozen the other. Thanks for the link though!

[Gustywind]

Busy for mid-late July
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
7:00 a.m. ET 7/21/2008
The tropics continue to be active for mid to late July in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a strong tropical wave is currently located over western Africa and is expected to emerge into the Atlantic later today. This wave will need to be monitored closely for possible development.
Nice regards from Gustywind .

[caribepr]

This image of the wave is less than an hour old

Large Wave View

Where did you get that image, Meso? It's amazing!

[Meso]

It's owned by a small South African website
http://www.weatherphotos.co.za

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 211200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED
ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER
EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER
IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Were they a little bit agressive this morning at 2 AM ? They were speaking about potential for this to become a TROPICAL CYCLONE. Right now with my subjective interpretation... it seems that chances are slightly diminished or my eyes are deceiving me? "THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT"....All in all wait and see what happens..

[HURAKAN]

Now the language used is much more NHC-like.

[Mecklenburg]

will invest 97L would be raised immediately at the navy site once this thing emerge from senegal?

[HURAKAN]

The LPS is still impressive.

[Mecklenburg]

The LPS is still impressive.

yeah it is really... i can't help but picture out what it will look like once it wallows in the open waters...

[HURAKAN]

[caribepr]

It's owned by a small South African website
http://www.weatherphotos.co.za

Thank you!

[tpr1967]

The LPS is still impressive.

yeah it is really... i can't help but picture out what it will look like once it wallows in the open waters...

Seems to be some african dust being draw in to the system in that pic. your thoughts.

[alienstorm]

While it is impressive I don't think this will amount to much given that it is coming out at a high latitude and that it should head off to the NW shortly after coming through the Cape Verde Islands. If this was coming out at 11N or lower than I think we would need to worry, but given it coming out at around 15 or 16 North it should prove to be short lived and just an issue to the Cape Verde Islands and then fishes.....

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 13:54 GMT le 21 juillet 2008
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200807

Elsewhere in the tropics
There's no sign that this year's unusually early and active hurricane season is going to slow down. Three of our four reliable computer models continue to predict that a strong tropical wave about to emerge off the coast of Africa tonight will develop into a tropical depression later this week. This wave, located over Senegal (15N 15W), has a very strong rotation and a large circulation. Once it moves over the Atlantic, water temperatures that are up to 2°C above average for this time of year should allow this wave to develop.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

[stormchazer]

While it is impressive I don't think this will amount to much given that it is coming out at a high latitude and that it should head off to the NW shortly after coming through the Cape Verde Islands. If this was coming out at 11N or lower than I think we would need to worry, but given it coming out at around 15 or 16 North it should prove to be short lived and just an issue to the Cape Verde Islands and then fishes.....

That is a good point but it seems that systems often dip south when leaving the coast of Africa due to the effects of the Azores High. I wonder if the presence of the Monsoon Trough usually on the African Coast in the summer also tends to intitially draw these waves towards the ITZ as they leave Africa.

We will have to see if, and where the center develops once it is off the coast.

[alienstorm]

Looking at the loop from EMUETSAT
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/De ... /index.htm

It is definitely moving off to the WNW or NW this is coming out at 16N, and the overall cloud coverage has decreased drastically. I don't think this may even develop now given the direction and decrease in overall coverage. Still a good spin but seems to be dimishing in intensity.