Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[gatorcane]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR THIS WAVE. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE FLOW WITHIN THE 800-600 MB LAYER NEAR THIS
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
27W-32W.

It seems the convection is more to the NE of the mid-level turning. Here is a VIS image of this area, with the wave shown on the far right side:

[wxman57]

Here are the 3 features in the Tropical Atlantic. The one with the most significant mid to lower level rotation is actually #1, as seen on this MIMIC TPW satellite loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

But the disturbance with the most significant rotation as seen with visible satellite imagery is the wave in the far eastern Atlantic, #3.

Remember that #1 looked quite impressive after moving off the coast of Africa. But there's a good bit of wind shear between Africa and the NE Caribbean, and it's taking its toll on these disturbances.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[Aric Dunn]

Here are the 3 features in the Tropical Atlantic. The one with the most significant mid to lower level rotation is actually #1, as seen on this MIMIC TPW satellite loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

But the disturbance with the most significant rotation as seen with visible satellite imagery is the wave in the far eastern Atlantic, #3.

Remember that #1 looked quite impressive after moving off the coast of Africa. But there's a good bit of wind shear between Africa and the NE Caribbean, and it's taking its toll on these disturbances.

agreed except #2 and #3 are not under any shear at the moment...but will be in 2 too 3 days

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
AROUND 1150 UTC ALSO CAPTURED A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR
10N WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 13 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR IS
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-18N.


$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST THU JUL 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE MOST OF OF THEM HAVE
ALREADY DISSIPATED. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE ON
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HAZE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG THE LONGITUDE 47W WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT EDGE OF THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LONGITUDE 31W
WILL REACH OUR LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

To all the Eastern Caribbean members,we have a thread only for us at Weather Attic forum to stop there and post all of what goes on in the islands weatherwise in a daily basis and it will be useful in the next few days as it looks like we will endure a wet period.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&p=1892791#p1892791

[Aric Dunn]

umm.. are you kidding me..... anyone have a good visible loop of the area.. looks a little bit more organized this afternoon..
some slight banding maybe hard to tell from the loop associated with this image .. convection has been on the increase
all day not very intense but none the less increasing..

[Aric Dunn]

well found this.. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

mostly in the mid levels i imagine.. but much better structure..

wxman57 you took a snap shot earlier with surface obs .. from garp can you do another for the cape verde islands.. ?

[Weatherboy1]

some convection starting to pop on the wave around 30W. First time this season we've seen renewed convection fire once a wave has moved off the African coast. Many previous waves looked good leaving the coast, then fizzled. So worth watching if it holds overnight.

[gatorcane]

The wave at 30W (#2 in Wxmans pic) by far looks the best to me right now. But as usual we need to see if convection maintains/increases for another day at least.

As for long-term implications if something were to develop out of any of the three areas WxMan pointed out, long-range models that do "develop" something are picking up the far west wave at this time (#1). Should #2 or #3 develop the long-term path could change quite a bit. It's important to keep that in mind when looking at some of the recurve scenarios outlined by those few models that do want to "develop" something.

Of course its likely none of these areas develop at all.

[Dean4Storms]

Hmm, that Wave does look better organized Aric, if the convection persists onernight tonight we may have a system in the making.

[littlevince]

anyone have a good visible loop of the area..

I made a visible loop for you, from 15z to 19z (15min frames):

Click on the picture (big file, 3.4 Mb)

[Aric Dunn]

anyone have a good visible loop of the area..

I made a visible loop for you, from 15z to 19z (15min frames):

Click on the picture (big file, 3.4 Mb)

hey thanks.. thats great.. i have no idea how you managed to get images from there .. but thanks..

also the area (#3) is all mid level all low level flow that i can see from that loop is diverging from (#3)

#2 has the best low level curvature to its ... but the midlevel with #3 is better than 2 so anyway .. most importantly both are maintaining convection and is starting produce more intense convection. so that will have to be watched ..

[Aric Dunn]

even #1 is showing convection again.. so will see.. its getting close to that time a year..

[cycloneye]

Here is wave 1.



To all the Eastern Caribbean members,we have a thread only for us at Weather Attic forum to stop there and post all of what goes on in the islands weatherwise in a daily basis and it will be useful in the next few days as it looks like we will endure a wet period.

Link to our tent thread at Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&p=1892791#p1892791

[cycloneye]

Here is a panoramic view of all the 3 waves.Click the symbol to see a closeup.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The third in line actually looks pretty good on false color IR loop

[HUC]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e
The wave 30west is firing,with better rotation,apparently!

[Aric Dunn]

On a side note the SAL is thinning quite a bit..



at least according to this.. lol

[tailgater]

I'll place my bets on # 6 ver in yhe Indian Ocean. j/j
The # 1, I can't see doing much until it gets to the east coast or cental America or should I say if there anything left when it gets past 80 west. But don't pooh pooh # 2 that could be our first storm of the year.