Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Gustywind]

Something to watch...bears watching

[vacanechaser]

GFS is garbage half the time anyways. Euro is much more accurate IMO

They are ALL garbage until they start reinforcing each other. Even the Euro sucks with intensity and track. Not sure why the GFS hate. GFS scenario has panned out so far if you look back at last weeks runs showing 2 systems. I understand some of its scenarios are silly but GFS range is extreme thats why the wierdness after 72 hours. Forget anything after 72

i dont know if the point is being missed here or not.. the thing about the models, they all show some sort of development with this system... when that happens, we get development most times... of course the track is suspect, however, the gfs and euro are on some what of the same path... still very early...but you can almost count on this thing at least developing... and the models saw it days ago... interesting times ahead..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vbhoutex]

A few things concern me about this one.
It is plenty low to make the long trek across the Atlantic without heading out to sea. Doesn't mean it won't, but makes it less likely.
As stated above it is already showing some signs of possible mid-level circulation.
It has PLENTY of moisture to work with on all sides so dry air shouldn't be too much of a problem, if any.
I have no hint where it may end up track wise, but IF this one develops(like most models are saying)a CONUS strike is a STRONG POSSIBILITY. Obviously the whole world could turn upside down by the time it is a CONUS threat, but those are some of my preliminary thoughts on this system emerging from Africa.

[vacanechaser]

A few things concern me about this one.
It is plenty low to make the long trek across the Atlantic without heading out to sea. Doesn't mean it won't, but makes it less likely.
As stated above it is already showing some signs of possible mid-level circulation.
It has PLENTY of moisture to work with on all sides so dry air shouldn't be too much of a problem, if any.
I have no hint where it may end up track wise, but IF this one develops(like most models are saying)a CONUS strike is a STRONG POSSIBILITY. Obviously the whole world could turn upside down by the time it is a CONUS threat, but those are some of my preliminary thoughts on this system emerging from Africa.

good call... could not agree more


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KatDaddy]

I am with VB. TD 2 is carving out the SAL.

[Annie Oakley]

"It is plenty low to make the long trek across the Atlantic without heading out to sea."
What does that mean?(especially the part about "...without heading out to sea"?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Question for the smart people:


Has any (and when was the last, if any) system been declared a tropical cyclone (TD or above) East of 30ºW and made it all the way to about 95ºW while still South of 30ºN. I can't think of any.


Thanks in advance.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone know if this is the 00z GFS? http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_10m_gfs_00z.htm#

[KatDaddy]

It could eventually become a GOM or East Coast threat.....the keyword is eventually. As with every hurricane season its time to be prepared and watch the tropical waves for more developement.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone know if this is the 00z GFS? http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_10m_gfs_00z.htm#

NCEP site doesn't show data from tonight's 0Z run. The NAM has finished...

[RL3AO]

Question for the smart people:


Has any (and when was the last, if any) system been declared a tropical cyclone (TD or above) East of 30ºW and made it all the way to about 95ºW while still South of 30ºN. I can't think of any.


Thanks in advance.

This one was close.

[Annie Oakley]

Wow RL3-you are a good researcher...hope the present doesn't repeat THAT past

[Ed Mahmoud]

Aaah, the 1915 storm that proved the worth of the Galveston seawall...

ETA


Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

OT: I am hoping for two snow miracle winters in a row here...

[Stormcenter]

I thought folks would at least wait until we had something concrete before the "gloom and doom" posts
started.

[jinftl]

Jesse has made the most rationale statement in the page after page of this thread, and no surprise, it elicited no response. People will continue to debate landfalls, make sweeping pronouncements, and sound the all clear. The important info is being overlooked....we have multiple models over multiple runs showing development. The margin of error....even as defined by 1 standard deviation...can be 1000 miles. Houston, New Orleans, Miami , New York, fish...plus or minus 1000 miles is at best, a crap shoot. Bottom line - models are awake.

And God bless 'em...someone will ask if the place they have been planning to vacation at next week all year is in the 'all clear'..and someone will say, 'for sure'.

GFS is garbage half the time anyways. Euro is much more accurate IMO

They are ALL garbage until they start reinforcing each other. Even the Euro sucks with intensity and track. Not sure why the GFS hate. GFS scenario has panned out so far if you look back at last weeks runs showing 2 systems. I understand some of its scenarios are silly but GFS range is extreme thats why the wierdness after 72 hours. Forget anything after 72

i dont know if the point is being missed here or not.. the thing about the models, they all show some sort of development with this system... when that happens, we get development most times... of course the track is suspect, however, the gfs and euro are on some what of the same path... still very early...but you can almost count on this thing at least developing... and the models saw it days ago... interesting times ahead..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[FrontRunner]

Dean '07 meets those requirements if you consider the best track (operationally formed west of 30, best track has the depression forming just east of 30.)

[cheezyWXguy]

Why does everyone keep saying that this is too far north? I really hope you all dont think that just because there's a low about to emerge, that it automatically means its under the deepest of convection. I can already see the rotation in the the southern half of the that thing, probably around 12N. Thats what would develop. The deep convection will die as soon as it hits water, while moisture and the other ingredients are drawn into the real system. Just watch. If anything happens, it will be currently sporadically covered area on the southern half of this wave, not the couple of big cells on the african coast. Models still appear to be on track.

[Sanibel]

What the heck is that thing pulling off Africa?

[RL3AO]

What the heck is that thing pulling off Africa?

A big problem if the models are right.

[vbhoutex]

"It is plenty low to make the long trek across the Atlantic without heading out to sea."
What does that mean?(especially the part about "...without heading out to sea"?

Basically when a system is around 10º Latitude or lower and it develops it will end up entering the Caribbean or at least brushing the East Coast whereas when a system is "higher" in latitude it is more likely to become a fish storm than one that is "lower". None of this is set in stone and there is even more detailed explanation concerning this that I could get into, but won't, at least not yet. Wow, was that long winded enough?