WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[Crostorm]

[JTE50]

Nice round eye.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 197
WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0922 NIDA (0922)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 12.1N 142.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 15.3N 140.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 270600UTC 17.2N 139.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 280600UTC 18.5N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

"dam nature, you scary!"

[oaba09]

GFS

[P.K.]

12Z JMA at T6.5. JTWC up to T7.5. SAB T7.5.

TPPN12 PGTW 251206

A. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA)

B. 25/1130Z

C. 12.6N

D. 142.2E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 20NM ROUND WMG EYE WITH CDG RING
YIELDS 7.5 DT. MET HELD TO 5.0 WITH MAX GROWTH. PT LIMITED TO
6.5 BASED ON PATTERNS. DBO DT. MET RULES BROKEN AS DT SHOWS
CLEAR CUT 7.5.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0703Z 12.0N 142.8E AMSU
25/0943Z 12.2N 142.5E SSMS


OATES

-----

TXPN23 KNES 250917
SIMWIR

A. 26W (NIDA)

B. 25/0832Z

C. 12.1N

D. 142.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D4.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE

H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON DT AND PT IN VERY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT
PRESENTLY SHOWS A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CDG. MET IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE
AND RULES ARE BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/0353Z 11.6N 143.2E AMSRE


...BALDWIN

[P.K.]

Not often you see this, up to 115kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0922 NIDA (0922)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 12.6N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 15.8N 139.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 271200UTC 17.7N 139.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 281200UTC 18.6N 138.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[Macrocane]

No doubt that WPAC is recovering the lost time, El Niño must have helped Nida to find the very favorable conditions. The next JTWC warning will be out in a few hours let's see how strong is Nida for them.

[P.K.]

Note that this is now as strong as Jangmi last year (Which was the strongest TY since Angela in 1995).

Advisories from a few other agencies.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY NIDA 0922 (0922) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC
00HR 12.6N 142.2E 925HPA 55M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 15.6N 140.6E 925HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 18.3N 139.1E 930HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 20.5N 138.9E 940HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 22.0N 139.7E 960HPA 38M/S=

---

** WTKO20 RKSL 251200 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME TY 0922 NIDA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251200UTC 12.6N 142.2E
MOVEMENT NW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.6N 140.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 271200UTC 17.7N 139.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 281200UTC 19.1N 139.2E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[ManilaTC]

I dont like what I am seeing with the other models...



Hopefully JMA and JTWC is still correct and Nida will recurve moving polewards.
I am still seeing a ridge from China moving South East hopefully gonna effect Nida to recurve.
What a system....

scary. but i'll still go for JMA, JTWC and ECMWF's solution. yeah, i agree, this is one impressive storm. yesterday, the same time as now, nida was just upgraded into a typhoon. at this moment, nida already became a cat5 supertyphoon, and still intensifying o_O i wonder what effect it could bring if this kind of system hits the land. feels like 2012 >,<

Glad the models shifted northward again. a 160kt storm gosh.

[JTE50]

I think we have our well defined inner core now Too bad James Reynolds and I couldn't get into this one.

[cycloneye]

I think we have our well defined inner core now Too bad James Reynolds and I couldn't get into this one.

Guam dodged a huge bullet but at least you have big waves to film.

[oaba09]

WOW!!! 150 Kts!!!!

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.1N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.0N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 141.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 44
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

Based on JTWC: Nida is the 5th supertyphoon of the season and 3rd cat 5. This is the season with most cat 5's since 2006.

[JTE50]

I think we have our well defined inner core now Too bad James Reynolds and I couldn't get into this one.

Guam dodged a huge bullet but at least you have big waves to film.

The southeast side saw some pretty big waves today. Right after I left the southern tip of Guam - Merizo, water washed over the road. The Weather Channel is airing my big wave footage right now. I'll get up before sun up and see what the western side of Guam is like. Hopefully there will still be some big ones rolling in.

Anyone know where Nida ranks with some of the other Super Typhoons over the years?

[dexterlabio]

i was overwhelmed by this. a 150kts storm? i bet this one is the strongest typhoon in the Pacific for some years. well, i am glad that it is likely not to affect any land areas, because if it will, i can't even imagine the destruction it will bring o_O

[Crostorm]

[oaba09]

I think we have our well defined inner core now Too bad James Reynolds and I couldn't get into this one.

Guam dodged a huge bullet but at least you have big waves to film.

The southeast side saw some pretty big waves today. Right after I left the southern tip of Guam - Merizo, water washed over the road. The Weather Channel is airing my big wave footage right now. I'll get up before sun up and see what the western side of Guam is like. Hopefully there will still be some big ones rolling in.

Anyone know where Nida ranks with some of the other Super Typhoons over the years?

Not sure about the rankings but to give you an idea, Tip(strongest super typhoon) had a 1 minute average of 305 kph.......Nida is currently at 277 kph.......Another notable super typhoon was angela w/ 285 kph 1 minute average winds...

[oaba09]

Beautiful eye....

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive