ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Dean4Storms]

This animation doesn't show it as well, but you can speed up the animation and zoom in.

The high clouds from the convection to the west blows over it right there at the end of the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[redfish1]

so does anyone give this system a chance of forming before making landfall???

[kevin]

I think this storm will form. BP is making it with their cloud seeding craft, mark my words.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity keeps increasing

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Cryomaniac]

I think this storm will form. BP is making it with their cloud seeding craft, mark my words.

Stranger things have happened at sea

[MGC]

Dean, I think you might be seeing a mid level circulation. It has to be watched since the surface low has little if any chance of development.......MGC

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 95, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 276N, 884W, 25, 1011, LO

[thetruesms]

I think this storm will form. BP is making it with their cloud seeding craft, mark my words.

Hang on a sec ... ... okay, now I'm ready - please continue

I'm still not hot on its chances for development right now, though. I just don't think it has the time to be anything other than a non-tropical low before it gets shoved onshore

[vbhoutex]

I think this storm will form. BP is making it with their cloud seeding craft, mark my words.

Back up your claim or do not make posts like this. Do you have proof BP is using cloud seeding?

[Weather Watcher]

I think this storm will form. BP is making it with their cloud seeding craft, mark my words.

Back up your claim or do not make posts like this. Do you have proof BP is using cloud seeding?

I think this was a joke lol

[AdamFirst]

In my totally unprofessional and amateur opinion, this will amount to nothing. Doesn't have the time to.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY
OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010070412, , BEST, 0, 272N, 900W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[weatherSnoop]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

looks like convection ate the naked swirl like a pacman

[HURAKAN]

95L, lol

[HURAKAN]

NOLA long range radar

[HURAKAN]

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[Stormcenter]

I know this might not be saying much but it looks better then it ever has.

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