ATL : TOMAS - Models

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re:

#201 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:46 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest


LBAR I believe is based on climatology and should generally not be used because
it does not account for the current weather patterns. :wink:
BAM is usually for low's that are not in the tropics I believe- pro mets please
correct me if I am wrong.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#202 Postby Migle » Sun Oct 31, 2010 5:16 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:snowcane180 wrote:
Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest


LBAR I believe is based on climatology and should generally not be used because
it does not account for the current weather patterns.
BAM is usually for low's that are not in the tropics I believe- pro mets please
correct me if I am wrong.
Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:46 pm


Well, I am not sure about all of that, but what I do know is the BAM Models do about as well as the XTRAP does, so...
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#203 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 31, 2010 7:10 pm

Migle wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:snowcane180 wrote:
Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest


LBAR I believe is based on climatology and should generally not be used because
it does not account for the current weather patterns.
BAM is usually for low's that are not in the tropics I believe- pro mets please
correct me if I am wrong.
Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2010 2:46 pm


Well, I am not sure about all of that, but what I do know is the BAM Models do about as well as the XTRAP does, so...


The BAMs are primarily for the deep tropics/MDR
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#204 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 31, 2010 9:13 pm

The consensus amongst the models is that we will indeed see tomas weaken to a tropical storm over the next few days....the consensus is also that he will intensify beyond that.

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#205 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:22 am

00Z runs the of Euro has a much more coherent tc at hour 72.
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#206 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 12:33 pm

FWIW, nogaps continues to leave tomas behind..
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#207 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:31 pm

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

665
WHXX01 KWBC 011819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC MON NOV 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101101 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101101  1800   101102  0600   101102  1800   101103  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  69.2W   13.8N  71.6W   14.3N  73.7W   14.4N  75.4W
BAMD    13.4N  69.2W   13.7N  70.6W   14.0N  71.9W   14.6N  73.0W
BAMM    13.4N  69.2W   13.3N  70.9W   13.6N  72.5W   14.0N  73.8W
LBAR    13.4N  69.2W   13.4N  70.8W   13.7N  72.0W   14.0N  72.8W
SHIP        40KTS          38KTS          39KTS          44KTS
DSHP        40KTS          38KTS          39KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101103  1800   101104  1800   101105  1800   101106  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  76.8W   14.4N  77.4W   16.2N  73.0W   21.0N  68.3W
BAMD    15.2N  74.1W   16.8N  76.3W   20.9N  76.2W   28.7N  69.0W
BAMM    14.4N  74.8W   15.3N  76.1W   17.7N  74.2W   23.1N  69.2W
LBAR    14.1N  73.3W   13.8N  74.0W   15.1N  74.5W   15.5N  72.8W
SHIP        53KTS          68KTS          84KTS          87KTS
DSHP        53KTS          68KTS          84KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  69.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  67.1W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  14.2N LONM24 =  64.4W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =   20NM RD34NW =  40NM
 
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#208 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:43 pm

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#209 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:16 pm

Euro now shows a decent storm as it makes the northward turn.

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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#210 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:23 pm

:uarrow: And the heads it back S?
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#211 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:26 pm

Moves over Haiti as a weaker system, then moves SE along the coast.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#212 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:55 pm

18z GFS moves Tomas slowly just north of Puerto Rico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#213 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:16 pm

18Z Nogaps says not so fast and leaves a strengthening storm heading west s of jamaica...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#214 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:18 pm

12Z ECM sends it back into the carribean with building heights to the N and NW...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
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#215 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:21 pm

18Z GFS doesnt get the job entirely done and leaves it adrift N of PR...interesting trends...


H174 still N of PR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
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#216 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:23 pm

H192 ECM ensembles not so fast...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif
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#217 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:24 pm

H240 ECM ensembles over western carribean with strong ridging to the North...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
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#218 Postby Vortex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:25 pm

18Z GFS ensembles over the central carribean sea

H168


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif
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Re:

#219 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:26 pm

Vortex wrote:H192 ECM ensembles not so fast...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif


Sorry, couldn't help but think of this:
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#220 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:51 pm

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 020048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC TUE NOV 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101102 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101102  0000   101102  1200   101103  0000   101103  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  70.4W   13.9N  72.6W   14.3N  74.4W   14.4N  76.0W
BAMD    13.5N  70.4W   13.9N  71.8W   14.3N  72.9W   14.9N  73.9W
BAMM    13.5N  70.4W   13.6N  72.1W   14.0N  73.5W   14.4N  74.7W
LBAR    13.5N  70.4W   13.9N  72.1W   14.4N  73.3W   14.9N  74.0W
SHIP        40KTS          41KTS          44KTS          48KTS
DSHP        40KTS          41KTS          44KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101104  0000   101105  0000   101106  0000   101107  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  77.2W   14.6N  77.6W   16.1N  72.9W   19.0N  69.0W
BAMD    15.4N  74.8W   17.3N  76.7W   22.6N  75.1W   31.1N  64.7W
BAMM    14.7N  75.5W   15.5N  76.7W   18.2N  74.0W   22.3N  69.8W
LBAR    15.1N  74.4W   15.3N  74.6W   18.3N  74.6W   21.3N  70.9W
SHIP        55KTS          69KTS          81KTS          80KTS
DSHP        55KTS          69KTS          80KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  70.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  68.2W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  65.8W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   40NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM
 
$$

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