WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[Infdidoll]

New here - just a random deployed spouse sitting on Okinawa watching another holiday weekend go down the crapper...LOL. At least it will be more than just crummy rainstorms...Infidoll - agreed on the commissary thing...tho it's funny to watch the locals chuckle at us as we stock up. They don't shut down until the eye is upon us...I on the other hand, will have kids in house for three days prior and after - and probably miss a few days of school out of the deal too...blech

Welcome! Glad to have more military folks around here to contribute to the discussion! This site has the best info from meteorologists and enthusiasts so it's a great "go to" reference if you like analysis. I hear ya on restless kids! I've got a 4 & 5 year-old and they are going to be upset about being inside. Of course, the locals will be out there surfing in it! We live right on the sea wall and sit and watch people actually out there in the water during some of these storms. LOL I did post a fair warning on the Kadena Facebook page so those people going away on vacation this week have some adequate time to get their stuff together. This storm is coming right when a lot of people are leaving to go back to the States to visit.

[Chacor]

PAGASA has named this TS Chedeng.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.4 / 979.1mb/ 74.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.4     4.4     3.9


[cycloneye]

JTWC 00:00 UTC Warning=60kts

Almost a typhoon.

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.1N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.5N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.2N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.4N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.8N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 133.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z,
232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00:00 UTC Prognostic Reasoning by JTWC.

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IRREGULAR CDO FEATURE OF ABOUT 140 NM DIAMETER WITH AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED SOUTH BUT WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222105Z
SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER (POSSIBLY AN INCIPIENT MICROWAVE EYE) POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. TS 04W HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK
ESTIMATES NOW RANGE FROM 55 TO AS HIGH AS 65 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH OVERALL RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS IMAGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 04W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 180 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THE
JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, 04W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-CURVING
EAST OF TAIWAN AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA AND WESTERN
HONSHU AFTER TAU 120.TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR 115 KNOTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE GFS TRACKER
IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST.//

[StormingB81]

I know there will be alot of disgruntled people here this weekend...Momorial day long weekend and everyone will be stuck inside. However I let some people know already I was like I know we have had many calls that it has missed us but they predicting it might become a monster...better to be safe then sorry because I am sure if it does come and friday we go to TCCOR 3 and they all attack the store..we all know how that goes.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all.

Models have shifted east a bit over night reflected in the forecasts from JTWC, JMA, CWB etc. Good news for Luzon but they're not out of the woods yet!

If I was in Ishigaki, Miyakojima or Okinawa I'd be watching this closely. That's the region I'll head to if current tracks and model outputs remain similar!

[Extratropical94]

Look at this cone from JTWC, that reminds me of the one they put up for Aere.
Still a lot of uncertainty, but the general motion and recurvature have been consolidating over the last couple warnings

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 11.3N 133.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 12.1N 131.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 250000UTC 12.8N 130.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 260000UTC 14.9N 128.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Crostorm]

[dexterlabio]

So PAGASA called Chedeng (Songda) a severe tropical storm. I never seen in the previous weather bulletins from PAGASA that they use the term "severe tropical storm".

[dexterlabio]

These past hours, Songda appeared odd again. Again maybe I'm wrong but I checked the shear condition on its area and it's quite increasing within the past 3 hours. Though I think JTWC will see this as a typhoon on their next issue.

TPPN10 PGTW 230629

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA)

B. 23/0532Z

C. 11.1N

D. 132.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. 160NM IRREGULAR CDO YIELDS
3.0, WITH 1.0 BF, TOTALING 4.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH

[Typhoon Hunter]

Models are like a windscreen wiper at the moment. We know the trend is for a recurve but there's very little agreement on where this will take place - no surprises since it's one of trickiest aspects to forecast.

Well the latest 00z runs are not good for the Philippines. ECMWF has shifted west a lot having Songda clip the NE tip of Luzon. UKMET smashed Songda into NE Luzon too. GFS and CMC still miss but are close enough to be of concern.

I really thought this morning we'd seen things firm up more in model agreement - well I was wrong and no surprises there, it's a fascinating and uncertain game we play watching these storms!

[dexterlabio]

^I already planned a vacation to the north for Wednesday because I was quite confident that the storm won't affect Luzon that much. Well if Songda will do clip NE Luzon, maybe Baguio City won't get much affected by it because it will go all the way northwards instead of getting near the Cordillera mountains (or maybe not?). I'll just make sure that we are gonna be safe. Maybe I should rely on my own instincts in deciding whether to go on a trip or not because the models keep on shifting to the west or east.

[phwxenthusiast]

Models are like a windscreen wiper at the moment. We know the trend is for a recurve but there's very little agreement on where this will take place - no surprises since it's one of trickiest aspects to forecast.

Well the latest 00z runs are not good for the Philippines. ECMWF has shifted west a lot having Songda clip the NE tip of Luzon. UKMET smashed Songda into NE Luzon too. GFS and CMC still miss but are close enough to be of concern.

I really thought this morning we'd seen things firm up more in model agreement - well I was wrong and no surprises there, it's a fascinating and uncertain game we play watching these storms!

i know right?! take the words right out of my mouth...
everyone from Luzon to Okinawa should continue watching this storm, nothing is set in stone it seems...

UKMET has been very consistent though unlike the other models so something to keep in mind...

[dexterlabio]

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.8N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.1N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 132.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (222340Z SSMIS AND 230505Z AMSU) DEPICT
AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 230505Z AMSU IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 65 KNOTS, BASED ON A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 230016Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING
50 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS, EXCEPT THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHERE A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 23/00Z STREAMLINE ANALYSIS,
IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). TS SONGDA IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
AND IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE EAST OF TAIWAN NEAR TAU 120 AND
TRACK TOWARDS OKINAWA AND WESTERN HONSHU AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A RE-CURVE SCENARIO, AND TRACK EAST OF
TAIWAN. BASED ON HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND TO THE EAST. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR 115 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

From JMA:

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 23 May 2011

<Analyses at 23/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°25'(11.4°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E131°05'(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[KWT]

That JWTC is might close to Luzon still, wouldn't take much of a shift westwards at all to get it to make landfall there.

Looks like its been pretty stable overnight between 55-60kts.

[dexterlabio]