Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Hurricaneman]

North of 20N and west of 60W is going to be the place where things get going looking at the shear maps and where the most instability is

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[gatorcane]

April-like shear dominates across the Atlantic as subtropical jet blasting through the tropics

http://i.imgur.com/U0Cbozs.png

http://i.imgur.com/RVwWWJ4.gif

Remember, the upper-level winds are constantly changing and your maps show the situation as of 12Z today. While shear dominates currently, look what the GFS shows for 90l as it traverses the MDR (the 1009MB low between Lesser Antilles and Africa). Look at the nice anticyclone on top that moves in tandem with it and very low shear with no reds or oranges around. That is a classic September-like upper-level pattern. I picked 102 hours from now as an example.

The sinking air and SAL are what look to be the inhibitors for MDR formation the next week or so, not the shear.

[hurricanes1234]

My amateur thoughts on the rest of this season is that it will have 0 major hurricanes and 3 more named storms. I think one will be a Category 2.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have 4-5 more named storms this season, bringing the seasonal total to 8-9. Not expected much in the way of significant or deep tropics storms, but we might see some high-latitude stuff thanks to the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures.

The central and eastern Atlantic are shut down by dry air, the West Atlantic is shut down by shear.

[ConvergenceZone]

Everytime I think it might be getting active, either dry air, shear or SAL shuts down that possibly. Thus now I predict only 2 or 3 more at most before the season goes bye bye until 2015. Maybe 1 more in September and 1 more in October. That would bring us up to storm "E" for the season total...........

[Hammy]

Everytime I think it might be getting active, either dry air, shear or SAL shuts down that possibly. Thus now I predict only 2 or 3 more at most before the season goes bye bye until 2015. Maybe 1 more in September and 1 more in October. That would bring us up to storm "E" for the season total...........

Considering we've already had one in September, one more in each month of Sep and Oct would bring us to F. Bear in mind this year was expected to be below normal, and the first week of September was also expected to be below normal before the MJO returns to the Atlantic, so I don't quite understand the reasoning of taking a week of weather that is doing exactly what it was expected to do, and somehow using that as the basis for the season being even weaker than forecast.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of MJO, quick update. As we know it takes the MJO roughly 30-60 days to progress around the planet, at varying states. If you've noticed that pattern of a storm has formed roughly the end of one month and/or the beginning of the next month this season you'll understand the time it takes for the MJO to move. If you extrapolate it would be around the end of the month to beginning of next month for a favorable MJO as the new wave is coming out of Indonesia to the Western Pacific. My guess is near and after Sept 20th is when it will be less "unfavorable." It will be some time before it helps, depending on ENSO forcing, if the Nino gets cranking it will likely take much longer to progress out of the Pacific. If not, maybe closer to the 30 than 60.

On shorter scale we should be looking for convective Kelvin waves should they come out of the EPAC, that usually can help the Atlantic on shorter scales. As we've seen clear influence they have both convective and supressed phases. Of course they are partly connected to the MJO as well.

[ninel conde]

I have 4-5 more named storms this season, bringing the seasonal total to 8-9. Not expected much in the way of significant or deep tropics storms, but we might see some high-latitude stuff thanks to the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures.

The central and eastern Atlantic are shut down by dry air, the West Atlantic is shut down by shear.

getting harder and harder to fathom that picture in your avatar really happened.

[Hammy]

I have 4-5 more named storms this season, bringing the seasonal total to 8-9. Not expected much in the way of significant or deep tropics storms, but we might see some high-latitude stuff thanks to the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures.

The central and eastern Atlantic are shut down by dry air, the West Atlantic is shut down by shear.

getting harder and harder to fathom that picture in your avatar really happened.

It's almost getting hard to believe storms like Michael in 2012 managed to occur at this point...

As far as the season, or at least the rest of the month, the MJO and Kelvin waves have been far more productive this year than last, so I personally think we'll see 2-3 more storms this month, but I don't think we'll see any at all until about a week or so has passed, when we should have more favorable moisture content based on some of the longer-range forecasts. Concerning the storms we have actually had so far, none of them showed up beyond about the eight day point, so what storms we do end up having may occur at the very end of the forecast period, but may simply not be showing up quite yet.

[MGC]

Lots of tropical cyclones have formed while the MJO was in the negative phase. From what I have observed over the years the positive MJO phase has a slight enhancing factor in TC formation. I expect 4-5 more named systems in the Atlantic the rest of 2014......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

Everytime I think it might be getting active, either dry air, shear or SAL shuts down that possibly. Thus now I predict only 2 or 3 more at most before the season goes bye bye until 2015. Maybe 1 more in September and 1 more in October. That would bring us up to storm "E" for the season total...........

Considering we've already had one in September, one more in each month of Sep and Oct would bring us to F. Bear in mind this year was expected to be below normal, and the first week of September was also expected to be below normal before the MJO returns to the Atlantic, so I don't quite understand the reasoning of taking a week of weather that is doing exactly what it was expected to do, and somehow using that as the basis for the season being even weaker than forecast.

Yea, I meant to say "F" but how many forecasters only predicted we would make it to "F"??? That's almost unheard of!!! But I think it's definitely possible..
I've heard that tune before that the MJO suppose to return and when it does, too many other factors are in play to keep development from occurring...

[chaser1]

Well to me this is a tad like a football game and we've got the ball AND home field advantage.

On defense, you have Uncle SAL, MJO & his cousin Kelvin; hell.... I'll even throw in SAL's pal from up north - Polar Vortex and Filipino adopted son - El Nino. In fact, and just for kicks.... I'll even let SAL's team bring Nibiru & HAARP off the bench and throw them into their defensive backfield as well. You know what? I'll still bet that we have 3 more named storms prior to Oct. 1. Granted, their tracks might be short and perhaps none of them will ever reach Hurricane strength... but this is "Prime Time". This season's disturbances do not seem to have any problem in acquiring vorticity. Furthermore, we are starting to see some pretty impressive waves move off the African Coast line now. Regardless how much Tropical conditions for genesis might largely suck, they wont suck everywhere.

Shoot, the more I think about it, I wouldn't be at all surprised to even see any one of those 100 or more Greenland Low's tap some warm pool of Atlantic SST's and possibly get tagged, LOL!!

[ninel conde]

GEEZ, TWC just showed that pitiful wave west of the cape verdes. I was stunned at the totally massive dry air dominating the tropical atlantic. there is ZERO CHANCE of anything developing in the tropical atlantic sahara desert. the atlantic has become a desert.

[ninel conde]

there is more moisture there in january than there is now.

JB refuses to give up.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 13m

Liable to see a burst here in the atlantic of 2-3, perhaps 4 storms in September. Against other years, that number not a big deal.

not sure where he expects them to form.

[hurricanes1234]

Just an unusual observation I made which sums up everything:

The Pacific has had more major hurricanes thus far (7) than the Atlantic has had tropical cyclones to this point (5).

[Hammy]

I've heard that tune before that the MJO suppose to return and when it does, too many other factors are in play to keep development from occurring...

That was very true, in 2013. The void of convection in the Atlantic is due to the suppressive phase of the MJO, while each time we've had a Kelvin wave pass, or gotten into the MJO's favorable phase so far, at least one system has managed to develop. Given how frequently the waves are coming off (another difference from last year) we're bound to get a short burst of activity sooner or later--even last year's pathetic season had three active storms at once in September for a short time, and conditions are certainly more favorable this year.

[euro6208]

My thoughts on the rest of this season...

2-3 more named storms for September and October before the season shuts down...

[Ntxw]

Just an unusual observation I made which sums up everything:

The Pacific has had more major hurricanes thus far (7) than the Atlantic has had tropical cyclones to this point (5).

Here's another stat that raises some eyebrows. 4 of those majors (iselle, Julio, Genevieve, and Marie) each one by themselves have produced equal to or more ACE than all of the storms in the ATL season so far combined.

[psyclone]

there's historically been an active named storm about 90% of the time somewhere in the Atlantic at peak season (Sept 10). This year could put us in the lowest decile of lameness. I think we had an active storm on 9-10 even last year so unless something pops before 9-10 that is really saying something.

[gatorcane]

there's historically been an active named storm about 90% of the time somewhere in the Atlantic at peak season (Sept 10). This year could put us in the lowest decile of lameness. I think we had an active storm on 9-10 even last year so unless something pops before 9-10 that is really saying something.

The wave that is supposed to emerge off the West Coast of Africa tomorrow night has really good model support. Could be a named system or close to becoming one by the time the peak of Sept 10th arrives.