2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Incredible for April...

[euro6208]

Incredible for April...

Saw a post here about where i got this from sorry been busy...

I got it here...

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/data/db/kaikyo/daily/sst_wnp.html

Eastern half of the basin is literally cooking...About 2 C above normal due to nino...

[euro6208]

Large area favorable for development...

[euro6208]

JMA has a strong disturbance southeast of Guam...

NAVGEM with Dolphin southeast of Guam



GFS



EURO

[euro6208]

Looks like another twin storms in the making...

We had Bavi and Pam back in March

We had Maysak and Haishen last month

Now we might be tracking Noul and Dolphin very soon...

El nino years tend to have storms come in pairs and bunches unfortunately...

[euro6208]

Here comes Dolphin...

EURO wants to bring Typhoon Dolphin to Guam. CMC is more southerly and GFS doesn't develop this until it passes south of us...

[euro6208]

Very favorable support for Dolphin to be around the 10th...

JMA



NAVGEM



CMC



EURO lashes Guam and moves into the P.I sea...

[euro6208]

GFS not as bullish on Dolphin only shows a recurving weak storm...

[euro6208]

Dolphin starting to get NWS's attention...

MARIANAS REMAIN IN TRADE-WIND FLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WENT
AHEAD AND BROADBRUSHED EAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER DAY 5 IT COULD GET A BIT INTERESTING... THE
ECMWF-HIRES BRINGS A TROPICAL STORM FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MARIANAS
AROUND DAY 10. OF COURSE...THESE SILICON CYCLONES ARE A DIME A
DOZEN. IF THE MODEL RETAINS IT THE NEXT TWO RUNS...AND EVEN MORE
SO IF IT MOVES FROM DAY 10 TO DAY 9...THEN IT IS TIME TO TAKE
NOTICE. SEA HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS
WEEK.

[euro6208]

18Z GFS continues to be conservative for Dolphin and is more westerly than the other models...

[euro6208]

This is what the models are developing into Dolphin

EURO and CMC develops this into a full blown typhoon but JMA, GFS, and NAVGEM much later and weaker. Likely the outflow from developing Noul should shear this system somewhat as models have this slow to consolidate but should intensify more rapidly as Pre-Noul moves away...

[euro6208]

93W THREAD

Hyperlink to 93W...

[euro6208]

WOW...Models hinting on Kujira after our 2 major typhoons...

[euro6208]

GFS also bringing Kujira close to Guam and deepening...

[euro6208]

MJO forecast to return...Although Noul and Dolphin doesn't want to wait...

[euro6208]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

The August 5th update is out and expect a very very active season...

30 tropical storms
20 typhoons
13 intense typhoons
ACE 448

That's a substantial increase from the May update...

May 6th activity forecast:

27 tropical storms
17 typhoons
11 intense typhoons
ACE 400

TSR raises its forecast and predicts the 2015 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be
hyperactive with activity about one and a half standard deviations above the 1965-2014
climate norm. It will be the most active typhoon season since at least 2004.

It should be stressed that uncertainties remain in the August-September ENSO forecast and thus in the
seasonal typhoon forecast. However, the expectation of a hyperactive 2015 Northwest Pacific typhoon
season is supported by the current ACE Index (through 5th August). Its value of 228 is the highest since
reliable records began in 1965 and is almost three times the climatological ACE value through 5th
August.

There is a 94% probability that the 2015 NW Pacific typhoon season ACE index will be above-average
(defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>322)), a 6% likelihood it will be nearnormal
(defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (238 to 322) and no chance it
will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<238)). The 50-
year period 1965-2014 is used for climatology.

[euro6208]

GFS trending stronger for Kujira as it slams Guam...

[euro6208]

Thru May 7, 2015 (U.S)

Season ACE is 57.65

5th most active January to May 31 on record since 1970, even surpassing 1997!

We still have 3 more weeks before May ends...

1997 57.2475
2015 57.65
2003 70.51
1971 73.7725
2004 80.095
1976 94.7

http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_May31

[euro6208]

Keep them records coming

Noul's formation into the 6th TS is the second earliest on record...Average for May 8 is 1.8. The record belongs to Babe of 1971 when it reached TS strength on May 3, six hours earlier than Noul.

Now if TD 07W develops into a named TS before May 19, it will break the record set on May 19, 1971 for the earliest formation of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Thru May 7, 2015 (U.S)

Season ACE is 57.65

5th most active January to May 31 on record since 1970, even surpassing 1997!

We still have 3 more weeks before May ends...

1997 57.2475
2015 57.65
2003 70.51
1971 73.7725
2004 80.095
1976 94.7

http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_May31

So far, 2015 is now 72.6. May 2015 may possibly exceed 100 next week, overtaking all of them!!?