Texas Summer-2015

[Tireman4]

Many folks are doubting Thomas's about this. I am hoping it is true!!

[Ntxw]

Many folks are doubting Thomas's about this. I am hoping it is true!!

The days are getting shorter...hm yes...wxman57 is losing his sunlight...fall is just around the corner

[aggiecutter]

Many folks are doubting Thomas's about this. I am hoping it is true!!

Actually, a western ridge and eastern trough is quite common in mid-late summer during moderate to strong El-Nino years. The GFS is now on-board with the EURO:

[Tireman4]

Many folks are doubting Thomas's about this. I am hoping it is true!!

The days are getting shorter...hm yes...wxman57 is losing his sunlight...fall is just around the corner

I know. I know...but dang...ughhh... I loathe Summer...

[Tireman4]

Maybe..maybe some sort of relief...coming...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MONSTER RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH THE LAST WEEKEND OF
JULY. SUBSEQUENT DAYS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE AVERAGE INTERIOR UPPER
90S THAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE TO (WEEKEND) HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
NUMBERS. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WORKING
ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST...WILL MAKE FOR NEAR NIL CHANCES FOR ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF AN EARLY
DAY QUICK PASSING NEAR COASTAL/OFFSHORE SHOWER. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WARMING BY LATE JULY STANDARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BAKE THE UPPER SOIL
LAYERS AND...WITH LITTLE WIND AND PLENTY OF BLAZING SUN...SHADE
WATER AND AIR CONDITIONING WILL QUICKLY BECOME COMMODITIES. THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND...WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 100 F WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 106
TO 111 F RANGE. THE LONG TERM FORECAST PROVIDES LITTLE RELIEF
WITH UPPER RIDGING FLEXING EAST AND WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BUT NOT BACKING OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. LONG
RANGE MODELS DO SHOW INCREASED PVA WITHIN HIGHER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE THAT MAY INTRODUCE HIGHER E-SE`ERN CWA RAIN CHANCES GOING
INTO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF JULY. 31

[Ntxw]

I know. I know...but dang...ughhh... I loathe Summer...

El Nino's tend to transition to fall very early and very quick. Even more so in Super El Nino's such as this one is shaping up to be .

[Brent]

When?

Second half of next week

Woo hoo. This is the best news since Sharknado 3

I know. I know...but dang...ughhh... I loathe Summer...

El Nino's tend to transition to fall very early and very quick. Even more so in Super El Nino's such as this one is shaping up to be .

Good...

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile after 2 weeks of constantly predicting 100 at DFW it still hasn't officially hit at the location. Last week of July, while we may not be able to keep that up (or maybe it will keep stopping at 99 ) the longer it goes at missing that's one day less it's going to add to the summer total and the clock is ticking

[iorange55]

Meanwhile after 2 weeks of constantly predicting 100 at DFW it still hasn't officially hit at the location. Last week of July, while we may not be able to keep that up (or maybe it will keep stopping at 99 ) the longer it goes at missing that's one day less it's going to add to the summer total and the clock is ticking

It's been hilarious seeing Pete (WFAA) predict 100 for two weeks now. He's always so confident about. "We will see it (insert random day here)"

I'm sure it's going to happen this weekend/next week, but it would be wonderful if it stopped at 99.

[Tireman4]

This should be the peak of the heat this year...this Summer (hopefully), it is hopefully downhill from here. Only a matter time before high school football, volleyball and cross country is starting up and the cooler days are with us...

[Brent]

Meanwhile after 2 weeks of constantly predicting 100 at DFW it still hasn't officially hit at the location. Last week of July, while we may not be able to keep that up (or maybe it will keep stopping at 99 ) the longer it goes at missing that's one day less it's going to add to the summer total and the clock is ticking

It's been hilarious seeing Pete (WFAA) predict 100 for two weeks now. He's always so confident about. "We will see it (insert random day here)"

I'm sure it's going to happen this weekend/next week, but it would be wonderful if it stopped at 99.

it's been getting funnier and funnier as the streak carries on... the days of summer are ticking down

[Brent]

where do I sign up? The meteogram has 60s for DFW at night under this :p

[Tireman4]

where do I sign up? The meteogram has 60s for DFW at night under this :p

Early Fall. What say you Wxman 57?

[Tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 250858
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO HOT & DRY WX PERSISTING OVER THE
WEEKEND. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-108 FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME COINCIDING W/ SEABREEZE & PEAK HEATING. REST OF
THE REGION HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE AFTN AND SEE NO
REASON THAT WON`T CONTINUE.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES
SO...FLOW OVER SE TX WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN & TRANSITION TO THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY AND/OR DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER A FEW SHRA/TSRA. CHANCES
DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT AT LEAST IT`S NOT ZERO. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS & MORE OF A SE WIND SHOULD AT LEAST KNOCK
A DEGREE OR THREE OFF HIGHS THOUGH.

RIDGE MEANDERS INTO THE SW STATES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS NORTHWARD. SUBSEQUENT DIGGING EASTERN TROF
LOOKS TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SLIDE INTO THE STATE & QUITE POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SE TX
FRI/SAT. BOTH GFS & ECMWF MOSTLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOPEFULLY IF AVAILABLE MOISTURE COOPERATES WE`LL SEE BETTER SHOTS
OF RAIN WITH BOTH SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING IN PLAY. 47

&&

[aggiecutter]

Latest from the EURO:

[Tireman4]

Relief in sight?

00
FXUS64 KHGX 252052
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH HEAT INDICES ALONG THE COAST IN THE 102 TO 107
RANGE AS OF 3 PM CDT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH 12Z RAOBS SHOWING IT
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY... SIDED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING GIVING WAY TO PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEST OF
INTERSTATE 45 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE RIDGE/S PROXIMITY TO THE REGION WILL HELP PROMOTE A HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER... WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION... WEAKNESSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... NAMELY THE TTU-WRF/ARW/NMM... SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES REACHES
THE AREA. HOWEVER... CARRYING POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH HEAT
INDICES AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST PEAKING
IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

A LESSENED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.8 TO 2 INCHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FORECAST IN
SEVERAL DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... WITH 20 POPS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. ADDITIONALLY... WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT/S BEEN OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND IN THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

A PASSING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE
RIDGE TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BACK
TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

[Ntxw]

DFW once again topped out at 99F. Number of official 100's still stands at 0. Delkus tweeted earlier this morning today would be the day, he must be having a rough go

If not for what happened a couple of months earlier, a ridge like this on an average summer would easily have produced a string of 100's going 5-10 in a row in the 100-105 range.

[weatherdude1108]

DFW once again topped out at 99F. Number of official 100's still stands at 0. Delkus tweeted earlier this morning today would be the day, he must be having a rough go

If not for what happened a couple of months earlier, a ridge like this on an average summer would easily have produced a string of 100's going 5-10 in a row in the 100-105 range.

The weather guy here said that we have not officially hit 100 in the Austin metro area yet this year. They have been predicting it for days, but said the extended forecast has shaved a couple degrees off those predicted 100s. Now it says 98-99 through next Thursday, with 98 by next Saturday with a 20% chance of rain.

[Ntxw]

DFW's dewpoint (and much of the eastern half the state) has gone up the past 24 hours. This means DFW will probably miss 100 again though today will feel worse with the higher humidity.

[Tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 261544
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION... WITH THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR GALVESTON ESE TOWARDS
PLATFORM KGHB /ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF CAMERON...LA/. THE SECOND WAS
LOCATED STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA
COAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FIRST BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SECOND BOUNDARY... PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
45. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT /LAKE CHARLES REPORTING 2.3
INCH PWAT AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST/ AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LOW SHEAR BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER... CREATING AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT IN THE 101 TO 107 RANGE AND HAVE REISSUED AREA-WIDE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THIS HAZARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47