Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Cerlin]

I’ve been noticing a trend thus far with the GFS after tracking the Oklahoma systems. It’ll sniff these systems out two weeks in advance (placement and timing way off but around the same area and time) and then take it away, reintroducing it between 7 and 10 days out with the Euro joining at about 7 days out. It’s happened almost exactly like that twice (October Ice Storm and the events this last weekend) and the way it’s handling Christmastime seems to be similar.

[HockeyTx82]

I don't buy the change over to rain, that is some of the deepest cold air of the season. Also, models always bust cold at the surface (weenie law) in these setups and we end up with more snow than expected

ETA: also, model trend here lately is to pull precip back west over time

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

Can't overperform when you don't even try to perform... sad but true.

Are you talking about weather models or the Cowboys?

[Brent]

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

Can't overperform when you don't even try to perform... sad but true.

Are you talking about weather models or the Cowboys?

looking at the GFS/Euro right now Christmas Eve and Day would be dry and cool but nothing interesting on the runs today so far the coldest air is to the east

[CaptinCrunch]

Lol verbatim we get a quick dusting to inch Christmas Eve morning before it changes to rain and warms into the 40s then Christmas is cold but dry but the brunt of the cold and snow is east of us

I want that snow band in Arkansas

I don't buy the change over to rain, that is some of the deepest cold air of the season. Also, models always bust cold at the surface (weenie law) in these setups and we end up with more snow than expected

ETA: also, model trend here lately is to pull precip back west over time

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

February 2010 when DFW got that 12"+ of snow when only 4-6" was hyped

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't buy the change over to rain, that is some of the deepest cold air of the season. Also, models always bust cold at the surface (weenie law) in these setups and we end up with more snow than expected

ETA: also, model trend here lately is to pull precip back west over time

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

Can't overperform when you don't even try to perform... sad but true.

Thanks for describing the Dallas Cowboys for the last quarter century.

[Cerlin]

I don't buy the change over to rain, that is some of the deepest cold air of the season. Also, models always bust cold at the surface (weenie law) in these setups and we end up with more snow than expected

ETA: also, model trend here lately is to pull precip back west over time

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

February 2010 when DFW got that 12"+ of snow when only 4-6" was hyped

If I remember correctly the March 4th/5th snowstorm in 2015 overperformed too. I know they called for up to 3 inches for most of the metroplex but DFW topped out at 3.5 inches and some places saw up to 7 (like Irving).

[Texas Snowman]

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

As I recall, storms around here quit over-performing about the time we started seeing a sharp increase in the usage of this Storm2k emoji:



Or maybe it was when Wxman57 made his deal with the devil to put Portastorm’s “Champ the Charger” in the garage permanently.

[Brent]

yeah but whens the last time we overperformed on snow tbh its been pathetic for years

February 2010 when DFW got that 12"+ of snow when only 4-6" was hyped

If I remember correctly the March 4th/5th snowstorm in 2015 overperformed too. I know they called for up to 3 inches for most of the metroplex but DFW topped out at 3.5 inches and some places saw up to 7 (like Irving).

Yeah that's right that was my first winter here and the 3rd or 4th storm in 2 weeks and I remember it being forecast to be mostly sleet tbh ended up being the biggest of the storms

Ironically that's also the last real snow Dallas saw lol

heck we cant even get a solid sleet storm anymore

[amawea]

Speaking of Portastorm. Where is he? He hasn't posted since Nov. 10

[somethingfunny]

The thing is, we haven't really had any decent setups in the past five years. We haven't had any great systems bust hard and disappoint everybody by underperforming... There just hasn't been anything to expect.

[gpsnowman]

Man I am watching the Noreaster on TWC with extreme envy. The flakes are flying in NYC, up to a foot there by morning. Ok tv off I can't continue to torture myself this way. Help me.

[HockeyTx82]

Man I am watching the Noreaster on TWC with extreme envy. The flakes are flying in NYC, up to a foot there by morning. Ok tv off I can't continue to torture myself this way. Help me.

My younger sister and her husband live up that way and are right in the middle of it. She's getting even by sending me pics and videos of all the snow and the storm raging.

[HockeyTx82]

Man I am watching the Noreaster on TWC with extreme envy. The flakes are flying in NYC, up to a foot there by morning. Ok tv off I can't continue to torture myself this way. Help me.

My younger sister and her husband live up that way and are right in the middle of it. She's getting even by sending me pics and videos of all the snow and the storm raging.

I'M FINALLY A CAT 5!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

The thing is, we haven't really had any decent setups in the past five years. We haven't had any great systems bust hard and disappoint everybody by underperforming... There just hasn't been anything to expect.

Yeah I can't even remember the last time I really believed an event would happen here the snow chase to the Falls I took last winter it was always obvious Dallas wouldn't see anything and that was the story this week too with the Oklahoma snow everything else has been so moisture starved to where it's a few flurries at best it's a joke either to the north or really annoyingly to the south

[TropicalTundra]

10% chance of snow tonight?



Either way I’m still loving these freezing temperatures. Nice and cold.

[TropicalTundra]

CMC seems to have a similar trend to the gfs.

[Brent]

CMC seems to have a similar trend to the gfs.

https://i.imgur.com/Vb9jsgD.jpg

the GFS is dry and cool now same with the Euro best cold is east

[HockeyTx82]

The Frost this morning in Ponder, wow my kids thought it had snowed. I was able to make a small snow ball with the ice I scrapped off the car windows.

On a side note, it seems quite a few of my neighbors don't have ice scrapers. Just sitting there ruining their wipers trying to defrost the windshield. I have three for two cars. I'm a nerd so whatever......

[Portastorm]

Speaking of Portastorm. Where is he? He hasn't posted since Nov. 10

Hey amawea, I'm here and have been mostly in lurker mode. Not much to talk about it, unfortunately. But I am hopeful Larry Cosgrove is right about his winter forecast as he believes the potential for wintry stuff increases by mid January and through February. As I have always maintained, La Nina's almost always have one or two substantial Arctic outbreaks and I believe this winter to be no different. We just have to cash in on those rare opportunities! "Champ" is raring and ready to roll!

In the meantime my very best to everyone here for a Merry Christmas and Healthy and Happy 2021!

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS looks like some of the coldest air of the season for DFW Christmas but no snow.