ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Shell Mound]

Could be a batch of showers or a tropical cyclone SFL at this point who knows.

https://i.postimg.cc/8cTXKN4g/29423-A2-F-EEF5-4-D59-8480-9777-AFA24436.png

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1424730715225161735
At this point I’d bet on “patch of showers.” There is a strong consensus that the ULL near Florida will impart sufficient VWS to prevent strengthening.

Only 11/51 ECMWF ensemble members depict a closed cyclone by the time shown above (five days from now). Only 1/51 members depicts a tropical cyclone of appreciable intensity (the 995mb outlier would be a strong tropical storm). ...

One such low looks to be located over Florida as 94L enters the Bahamas. These lows are a great source of wind shear and dry air, two things that strongly inhibit tropical cyclone development. Given this upper-level pattern, I would be surprised if anything more than a few gusty showers made it all the way to Florida by next weekend.

Source

[GCANE]

A long-duration high-helicity tower fired this morning.
Likely pushed mid-level vort to the surface.
Let's see if it refires.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm finding several parallels between 94L and Isaias (one year and one week ago). Similar time of year, approach to the region, model projections at the comparable point in time, the notion that conditions in the Bahamas will be slightly less inhibitive than previously expected (which I'm gleaming from the Models thread this morning)...

Worth remembering how much uncertainty Isaias presented Florida. First it was going to miss us to the east, then go right up the Peninsula, then up the west coast to perhaps the Big Bend, then back down the middle, and finally back to scraping by the east coast. All of that in about a 48 hour span. So way to early to make predictions about Florida over the weekend.

Similar to 94L so far, Isaias failed to pick up latitude like it was projected to for several days as it approached and crossed through the Lesser Antilles, before catching up via center-reformations to the N. I wouldn't count out the same scenario for 94L.

[Shell Mound]

the notion that conditions in the Bahamas will be slightly less inhibitive than previously expected

The key word is “slightly.” Also, I don’t see much evidence of this statement in the most reliable guidance (EPS). The ULL will likely kill 94L/Fred pre-Florida.

Essentially, the setup is too marginal and the margin of error too high for South Florida to realistically expect more than locally enhanced precipitation.

[SoupBone]

What's pushing it or potentially pushing it more NW? Is the high eroding or supposed to in that area?

I still have yet to find a mechanism for the sudden wnw to NW motion. Hence why it still has not made that turn yet. more southerly shifts to come it seems.

Weak Mid-level ridging seems to be the culprit, but that's only dependent on whether the center relocates further north.

Still, this track has a more Fall look to it, heading up the spine of the islands into Florida. At least for the given moment anyway.

[Evil Jeremy]

the notion that conditions in the Bahamas will be slightly less inhibitive than previously expected

The key word is “slightly.” Also, I don’t see much evidence of this statement in the most reliable guidance (EPS). The ULL will likely kill 94L/Fred pre-Florida.

Essentially, the setup is too marginal and the margin of error too high for South Florida to realistically expect more than locally enhanced precipitation.

I sure hope so, but I’ve seen “heavy shear in 5 days” fail to pan out on several occasions.

[Tireman4]

Interesting days and weeks ahead. I think we are just ramping up

[mpic]

How long is the High over Texas forecasted to stay in place?

[Shell Mound]

the notion that conditions in the Bahamas will be slightly less inhibitive than previously expected

The key word is “slightly.” Also, I don’t see much evidence of this statement in the most reliable guidance (EPS). The ULL will likely kill 94L/Fred pre-Florida.

Essentially, the setup is too marginal and the margin of error too high for South Florida to realistically expect more than locally enhanced precipitation.

I sure hope so, but I’ve seen “heavy shear in 5 days” fail to pan out on several occasions.

Both reliable models and meteorologists agree that the shear will be significant and likely preclude anything stronger than a low-end TS in South Florida. Furthermore, we’re talking about South Florida. Over the past several seasons we’ve seen quite a few situations that ended up being less dire for South Florida than originally feared: Matthew, Irma, and Dorian, among others, to not mention other systems that ended up turning away or being weaker at the time of their closest passes. Plus, in this case, we are dealing with Hispaniola as well as a vigorous ULL. Given that 94L is a small system, it will be even more susceptible to structural hindrances. Things could change, of course, but as of now I don’t think South FL should be worried. Fortunately, 94L’s compact size also minimises the threat of widespread heavy rainfall in the islands, at least to some degree.

[SFLcane]

Nope, just a sharp wave.

For now atleast

[SoupBone]

How long is the High over Texas forecasted to stay in place?

I hope until October!

[HurricaneEnzo]

May come down to how this system deals with the E Carib 'graveyard'. Conditions seem favorable in the short term. If it gains much latitude looks like it will be getting into moderate wind shear though. It needs to stay South. Definitely has an advantage over Elsa and that is slower forward speed. Moving at about 10-15mph as opposed to 28mph.

[aspen]

Nope, just a sharp wave.

For now atleast

https://i.postimg.cc/mDZ8wSB2/EE02509-E-5-E5-B-4-AB9-80-B8-DB0-D5-A615921.jpg

Still worthy of a PTC designation because of how close it is to land. I don’t know why the NHC hasn’t given it one already.

[AlphaToOmega]

Only a little bit of westerly flow is required to make this a tropical cyclone.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/TDekhjZpRf4[/youtube]

[Blown Away]

Appears to be gaining latitude at WNW...

[AlphaToOmega]

Surface analysis shows a closed low.

[Sciencerocks]

[sma10]

the notion that conditions in the Bahamas will be slightly less inhibitive than previously expected

The key word is “slightly.” Also, I don’t see much evidence of this statement in the most reliable guidance (EPS). The ULL will likely kill 94L/Fred pre-Florida.

Essentially, the setup is too marginal and the margin of error too high for South Florida to realistically expect more than locally enhanced precipitation.

Do you have any evidence for your claims, other than model depictions of shear maps several days out on a system that is still not classified? Don't get me wrong - opinions are free and models are outstanding tools, but your overconfidence seems unfounded (or at the very least overblown). A lot of us remember back to last year where the models missed genesis and strengthening repeatedly.