ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

16Z ASCAT indicates a squall line moving toward the FL coast. Tyndall buoy south of Apalachicola went from east at 11 kts to SW at 38 kts this hour as the squall line passed. Kind of needs a surface circulation for classification, and gusts in a squall line don't count toward a circulation, of which there is very little.

[wx98]

On radar it has a trackable center, which is heading toward Panama City/Mexico Beach.

[Stormybajan]

TD13.
 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1435696440018292737

[CrazyC83]

On radar it has a trackable center, which is heading toward Panama City/Mexico Beach.

It seems like it will slide just south of Apalachicola, which would give it more time over water?

[TallyTracker]

Is there any evidence of west winds? I haven’t seen anyone post west winds south of the center. I’m a bit skeptical this is anything more than a sharp trough.

[OtherHD]

Is there any evidence of west winds? I haven’t seen anyone post west winds south of the center. I’m a bit skeptical this is anything more than a sharp trough.

If anything I was having trouble finding east winds on the north side.

[grapealcoholic]

It has like 4-5 hours to get to TS strength. Shouldn't be too difficult

[wx98]

On radar it has a trackable center, which is heading toward Panama City/Mexico Beach.

It seems like it will slide just south of Apalachicola, which would give it more time over water?

It could slide south or it could come in right on the point at Apalachicola.

[wx98]

Hmmm a landfalling tropical system in FL with a thread on here over a week old only has 11 pages. Talk about sneaking in the back door.

[wx98]

Looks like the went with Mindy for the advisory.

[zzh]

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on Hurricane Larry and TS Mindy

[grapealcoholic]

Passed over a buoy that found 45 kt gusts

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[SunnyThoughts]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 082053
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[AlphaToOmega]

This went from TD 13L to TS Mindy in a few minutes. That was the fastest upgrade I have ever seen!

[wx98]

This went from TD 13L to TS Mindy in a few minutes. That was the fastest upgrade I have ever seen!

So fast it technically wasn’t even a depression operationally

[Stormcenter]

The sad thing none of multi million dollar models showed
this even becoming a TD.

[AlphaToOmega]

The sad thing none of multi million dollar models showed
this even becoming a TD.

A few days ago, the GFS was showing a hurricane making landfall in Florida.

[grapealcoholic]

The sad thing none of multi million dollar models showed
this even becoming a TD.

A few days ago, the GFS was showing a hurricane making landfall in Florida.

It was one run, no?

[Ubuntwo]

The sad thing none of multi million dollar models showed
this even becoming a TD.

The past 7 GFS runs have depicted 91L developing a tight closed surface circulation, as strong as 1004-1005mb.