Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[skyline385]

CV system weak on the GFS probably from the dry air and TUTT




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[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563206692636348418




TS Danielle next week?

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS makes this a recurving hurricane north of the islands

[skyline385]

Weak GFS run for the CV systems overall


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[ElectricStorm]

Weak GFS run for the CV systems overall


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It's not weak at all for this system lol

957mb near Bermuda

[skyline385]

Weak GFS run for the CV systems overall


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It's not weak at all for this system lol

It was definitely weaker when recurving from near the LA when i posted. For some reason, one of the recurving system decided to blow up in the middle of the Atlantic which is ideal for everyone as long as it dodges Bermuda too.


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[MHC Tracking]

12z GFS makes this a recurving hurricane north of the islands

Without that modelcane in the Gulf, that storm would be heading west as a strong hurricane, a-la EPS.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO

12z GFS

EURO a little left and GFS a little right, split the difference is usually the outcome. Seems the models are displaying their bias and timing and strength are generally in line, so I think this will be an Invest soon and then Danielle or Earl, depending on the GOM system. JMHO

[sma10]

12z GFS makes this a recurving hurricane north of the islands

Without that modelcane in the Gulf, that storm would be heading west as a strong hurricane, a-la EPS.

The GFS is making it very difficult for us to believe in it. Besides blowing up that system, it then pumps two more storms out of the Gulf mere days apart

[MHC Tracking]

12z GFS makes this a recurving hurricane north of the islands

Without that modelcane in the Gulf, that storm would be heading west as a strong hurricane, a-la EPS.

The GFS is making it very difficult for us to believe in it. Besides blowing up that system, it then pumps two more storms out of the Gulf mere days apart

Haha yeah.
Giga gyre with numerous vorts, somehow related to the previous ghostcane's vorticity

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/WvtKmHh.jpg
00z EURO
https://i.imgur.com/JdmrFsx.jpg
12z GFS

EURO a little left and GFS a little right, split the difference is usually the outcome. Seems the models are displaying their bias and timing and strength are generally in line, so I think this will be an Invest soon and then Danielle or Earl, depending on the GOM system. JMHO

I know this is days apart to even discuss steering but the Euro 12z run is a bit north from the last run.

[MHC Tracking]

https://i.imgur.com/WvtKmHh.jpg
00z EURO
https://i.imgur.com/JdmrFsx.jpg
12z GFS

EURO a little left and GFS a little right, split the difference is usually the outcome. Seems the models are displaying their bias and timing and strength are generally in line, so I think this will be an Invest soon and then Danielle or Earl, depending on the GOM system. JMHO

I know this is days apart to even discuss steering but the Euro 12z run is a bit north from the last run.

Let's see what EPS comes in with relative to the south-weighted 00z run.

[aspen]

Weak GFS run for the CV systems overall


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It's not weak at all for this system lol

957mb near Bermuda

And 947mb at 40N lol

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO. The x more SW than this morning.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave
could support some gradual development of the system during the
early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[MHC Tracking]

X is gradually being moved towards the main dominant feature.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/WvtKmHh.jpg
00z EURO
https://i.imgur.com/JdmrFsx.jpg
12z GFS

EURO a little left and GFS a little right, split the difference is usually the outcome. Seems the models are displaying their bias and timing and strength are generally in line, so I think this will be an Invest soon and then Danielle or Earl, depending on the GOM system. JMHO

I know this is days apart to even discuss steering but the Euro 12z run is a bit north from the last run.

Let's see what EPS comes in with relative to the south-weighted 00z run.

Correction: I looked at the GFS 12z model map and assumed Euro 12z came out at the same time. I haven’t seen the Euro 12z yet. It hasn’t released yet lol

[USTropics]

Watch the upper-level environment over the central/western Atlantic at 5 days. Both models have been trending in different directions with the ULL over the CATL:

GFS


ECMWF

[MHC Tracking]

Watch the upper-level environment over the central/western Atlantic at 5 days. Both models have been trending in different directions with the ULL over the CATL:

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/Jujq7ae.gif

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/rkIHVwj.gif

GFS is heavily influenced by the GoM fantasy. I'll trust the ECMWF for now, but take it with a little salt due to the strong ridge bias

[skyline385]

Watch the upper-level environment over the central/western Atlantic at 5 days. Both models have been trending in different directions with the ULL over the CATL:

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/Jujq7ae.gif

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/rkIHVwj.gif

GFS is heavily influenced by the GoM fantasy. I'll trust the ECMWF for now, but take it with a little salt due to the strong ridge bias

What influence does the GoM system have on a MDR system?


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[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1563222546275012610




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1563093418783686657