2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ncskywarn]

Both the Canadian & European models have a strong ridge to the north at day 10, shoving the vorticity into the East Pac. GFS remains the outlier, but its trof across the central Gulf is weakening with each run, trending more like the EC and CMC. I'm still thinking this may become the first East Pac storm of the season.

I understand what you're saying. With that being said I wouldn't count it out just yet. Wherever it is, the GFS is definitely insistent on something in the Caribbean/Gulf in the 19-22nd timeframe. I got to admit it’s done a really good job in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean so far this year. (It did well predicting the wpac genesis and strength on the super typhoon last week well in advance.) Also development in the Gulf during mid-late June does have climo support for early in an El-Niño.

[MetroMike]

Guess we will wait it out if this GFS trend continues and the NHC gives us a lemon in next several days since genesis is within 10 day period no longer fantasy range.

[Yellow Evan]

Both the Canadian & European models have a strong ridge to the north at day 10, shoving the vorticity into the East Pac. GFS remains the outlier, but its trof across the central Gulf is weakening with each run, trending more like the EC and CMC. I'm still thinking this may become the first East Pac storm of the season.

I understand what you're saying. With that being said I wouldn't count it out just yet. Wherever it is, the GFS is definitely insistent on something in the Gulf in the 19-22nd timeframe. I got to admit it’s a really good job in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean so far this year. Also development in the Gulf during mid-late June does have climo support for early in an El-Niño. It's also done well predicting the wpac activity so far this season. It picked up genesis and strength on the super typhoon last week well in advance.

GFS tends to fare far better with TCG when MJO is very active as was the case with Ilsa, Mocha, and Mawar. We don't have MJO forcing forcing for this, although we will have CCKW support in about 10 days, so I'd prefer to not make this comparison. It’s not like they’ve been upgraded recently either.

[gatorcane]

We go through this every season around this time with the GFS. The fact it is showing an EPAC system also in recent runs is a big clue the Caribbean GFS cane is a phantom not to mention zero support from the other models. I do think we will see our first EPAC system though.

[OuterBanker]

OK now, all three models are showing the start of an epic system in 10. GfS by far the strongest. GFS now in the ten day range and showing the epac and a west carib system. Windshield wipers are back on for the west Carib system now back at Naples which was one of the first targets a few days ago.

[hurricane2025]

Gfs does this every year, 99 percent chance it’s wrong and it’s prob epac system, don’t get Yalls hopes up

[wxman57]

GFS remains the extreme outlier as far as any west-Caribbean development. CMC and EC are on-board with vorticity tracking west into the East Pac, where development occurs. Deep 200mb trof at day 10 has returned on the 00Z GFS. Completely different flow in other models. Careful believing the GFS.

[Wampadawg]

GFS remains the extreme outlier as far as any west-Caribbean development. CMC and EC are on-board with vorticity tracking west into the East Pac, where development occurs. Deep 200mb trof at day 10 has returned on the 00Z GFS. Completely different flow in other models. Careful believing the GFS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJune10b.JPG

So for the layman the trof is the outlier?

[JetFuel_SE]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?

With the Euro and CMC both showing nada (except maybe in the EPAC), not really.

The CMC is a joke, and the Euro only has a TC forming when it's already been named for a solid 24 hours.
Let's just wait and see.

[Category5Kaiju]

I also have to wonder, because haven't there been times in the past where Central American Gyres spawned a storm in the EPAC as well as a storm in the Atlantic? Sometimes it's only the Atlantic, sometimes it's only the EPAC, but I would have to think that there were times when both basins were favored? I do agree that CAGs are generally not easy to resolve (especially mid to long range), as mild differences in troughiness/ridging could mean the difference between an EPAC system vs an Atlantic system.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/SK0q8Yc/90668154-2.gif

Oh wow, very interesting. Yeah I agree, maybe that might be something worth looking at further in detail down the road (if anything that's probably a much more plausible TCG mechanism). Maybe we have a "guy looking at red shirted girl while his blue shirted girlfriend is upset" moment here.

[GCANE]

GFS now has a warm core initializing in the W Carib, 168hrs out

[GCANE]

355K PV Forecast looks very conducive for development once it gets in the GoM.
Getting close to the 144 hr threshold where it becomes relevant.
May have something here..

[LarryWx]

GFS now has a warm core initializing in the W Carib, 168hrs out

21 GFS runs in a row though still a few days from record for a fake

[USTropics]

This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/SK0q8Yc/90668154-2.gif

The GFS actually isn't developing this from a spurious vorticity associated with the CAG, it's origins are related to a TW that is expected to depart the coast of Africa here shortly. You can follow this in the 700mb vort signature from the latest GFS run below (roughly highlighted the wave axis in pink in the animation below):



The difference in the models is the upper-level features and steering pattern. The GFS has a sharp trough that extends all the way down towards the Yucatan peninsula (highlighted in pink below). This has multiple impacts: (1) displaces the subtropical high towards the northeast (highlighted in orange), (2) erodes the western periphery of the high pressure area, (3) reduces zonal flow in the Caribbean, and (4) provides the necessary "lift" for this tropical wave to exit the Caribbean towards the GOM.



Compare this to last night's 00z ECMWF run at the same time frame, and you can see the high pressure is oriented more E to W and extends further west, there is only a weak signature of a trough over CONUS that doesnt extend nearly as far south, and the zonal flow in the Caribbean carries the wave vort signature through Central America and into the EPAC.

[Nuno]

We are approaching the window to where this thing might happen. We don't need disclaimers about the details, we know how it goes, but the time frame isn't particularly being pushed back like a typical phantom. As USTropics pointed out, we are assuming CAG formation when this is from a TW. GFS issues with CAG formation are associated with where cyclogenesis occurs, but that isn't particularly an issue here.

It isn't a "phantom". There is a wave, there's just lots of factors to watch this far out as we all know

[cycloneye]

This is a bit of a ways out but I am honestly more interested in this MDR signal the GEFS is latching on to; it's been there the past few runs. A tropical wave is obviously a much more realistic pathway to cyclogenesis than the spurious Venezuelan vorticity the GFS is always obsessed with this time of year. For that reason, I feel more confidence in other models possibly sniffing this out in the near future. With the current SSTs I'd say an early season MDR TD/TS is within the realm of possibility. We'll see.
https://i.ibb.co/SK0q8Yc/90668154-2.gif

The GFS actually isn't developing this from a spurious vorticity associated with the CAG, it's origins are related to a TW that is expected to depart the coast of Africa here shortly. You can follow this in the 700mb vort signature from the latest GFS run below (roughly highlighted the wave axis in pink in the animation below):

https://i.ibb.co/wd8WNhc/gifmaker-me.gif

The difference in the models is the upper-level features and steering pattern. The GFS has a sharp trough that extends all the way down towards the Yucatan peninsula (highlighted in pink below). This has multiple impacts: (1) displaces the subtropical high towards the northeast (highlighted in orange), (2) erodes the western periphery of the high pressure area, (3) reduces zonal flow in the Caribbean, and (4) provides the necessary "lift" for this tropical wave to exit the Caribbean towards the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/OdkCd1I.png

Compare this to last night's 00z ECMWF run at the same time frame, and you can see the high pressure is oriented more E to W and extends further west, there is only a weak signature of a trough over CONUS that doesnt extend nearly as far south, and the zonal flow in the Caribbean carries the wave vort signature through Central America and into the EPAC.
https://i.imgur.com/KzJfZYL.png

The culprit. That is a great analysis my friend.

[BobHarlem]

No one is paying attention to the Last GFS?

With the Euro and CMC both showing nada (except maybe in the EPAC), not really.

The CMC is a joke, and the Euro only has a TC forming when it's already been named for a solid 24 hours.
Let's just wait and see.

If there were even one euro ensemble anywhere close to the gfs I'd agree, but there is not, I'm thinking the gfs will shift west into the epac, the 12z gfs today is going that direction already.

[IcyTundra]

The Euro tends to have stronger ridging than the GFS this far out. Still think the GFS will be wrong but you never know.