Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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oneness
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#201 Postby oneness » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:35 pm

Image
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#202 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:36 pm

:uarrow:

VERY old image...from 1215z, about 8:15 am EDT
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#203 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:40 pm

GOES is down...
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#204 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:45 pm

I said yesterday that this has south Florida written all over it and then once in the Gulf I cannot see it making it all the way to Mexico or at least South Tx. this time of year with the westerlies beginning to amplify. A storm developing here has alot of room for deepening before it reaches south Florida or the Keys and with the troughs digging in the midwest it doesn't take much to create a weakness in the ridging.

Watch this one if you are in the Bahamas and South Florida!
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#205 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:47 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I said yesterday that this has south Florida written all over it and then once in the Gulf I cannot see it making it all the way to Mexico or at least South Tx. this time of year with the westerlies beginning to amplify. A storm developing here has alot of room for deepening before it reaches south Florida or the Keys and with the troughs digging in the midwest it doesn't take much to create a weakness in the ridging.

Watch this one if you are in the Bahamas and South Florida!


yep, i made my prediction of northern gulf coast for now
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#206 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:48 pm

deltadog03 wrote:ok folks, calm down...only 1 run...althought, i am a little concerned on that the ridge will be breaking down in days 5-7 over TX....our upper ridge will loose some and start shifting east....gonna be VERY interesting


I agree. Hou/NWS seems to think the ridge will hold 5-7 days out. Its got alot of people thinking once again TX will be home free for the rest of the season. Will be interesting to see if the ridging remains in place for that long.
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#207 Postby hicksta » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:51 pm

JB said "texas needs to watch out" and 5 days out puts the storm near flordia.gom
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#208 Postby SkeetoBite » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:06 pm

Sneak peek for S2K users of another project we are working on... yeah, it's accurate, but not quite ready for automation yet.

Image
Image
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#209 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:20 pm

Hey stay away from NOLA 96L :grrr:
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#210 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:42 pm

Does anybody think 96L will be a depression by tomorrow moroning. I guess the Bam's flopped more towards Southern FL. Am I making a correct observation that 96L is starting to wrap with the circulation due N of PR near 22N!
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#211 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:03 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050917 1800 050918 0600 050918 1800 050919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 68.5W 22.3N 70.0W 23.0N 71.6W 23.6N 73.2W
BAMM 21.6N 68.5W 22.2N 70.2W 22.9N 71.8W 23.4N 73.5W
A98E 21.6N 68.5W 22.1N 70.9W 22.6N 73.0W 23.1N 75.1W
LBAR 21.6N 68.5W 22.4N 70.2W 23.1N 71.9W 23.8N 73.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050919 1800 050920 1800 050921 1800 050922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 74.9W 24.7N 78.5W 25.6N 81.5W 26.9N 83.8W
BAMM 23.9N 75.2W 24.5N 79.0W 25.4N 82.8W 26.6N 86.5W
A98E 23.6N 77.5W 23.8N 82.4W 23.8N 86.7W 24.2N 89.8W
LBAR 24.5N 74.7W 25.3N 76.8W 26.6N 77.9W 28.6N 78.1W
SHIP 54KTS 68KTS 76KTS 77KTS
DSHP 54KTS 68KTS 76KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 66.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 63.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models.
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#212 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:05 pm

Image
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#213 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:06 pm

For a brief time I like the dopey LBAR. :D :lol:
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#214 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:08 pm

cjrciadt wrote:For a brief time I like the dopey LBAR. :D :lol:


Still my favorite too.....GO LBAR, GO LBAR!!!! :lol: :lol:
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#215 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:08 pm

17/1800 UTC 21.9N 68.7W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#216 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:17 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:Image


Definitely spooky that most of these models put this system in the GOM.
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#217 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:22 pm

mvtrucking wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:Image


Definitely spooky that most of these models put this system in the GOM.


Especially spooky if a cold front curves it up towards LA/MS and it has 4 days to intensify over the warm GOM...

:eek:
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#218 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:23 pm

Just wanted to borrow a line from Hurricane Girl...HOLY CRAP...I don't like those models trending farther north towards me!!!! :grr:
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#219 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:33 pm

Image

Here is the graphic of GFDL that Truballer#1 posted at the wrong thread.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion

#220 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:34 pm

Not liking that track. Just look where it takes it....
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