Wave in Central Caribbean

[storms in NC]

For a system that is not to do any thing sure does look good for being much of nothing. HUMMMMMMMM sounds like what went on in the GOM

[CrazyC83]

This blob I don't see anything out of. I'd say the Cape Verde blob has much more development potential. I'd give it about a 10% chance of development.

[T'Bonz]

Here in Ft L, they're saying "gusty storms" for Sunday. Means they think it'll just be a stormy rainmaker, and not a T.S. or more.

Good, as I'm going away next Thurs. and in no mood for tropical junk. :p

[Extremeweatherguy]

and then after that, the strong ridge to the north may lead to this thing becoming a Gulf issue toward the early to middle part of next week.

Personally, I doubt that. Although the wave may be closer to the Bahamas and southeast/east-central Florida earlier than indicated in some office discussions, the mid-level ridging, after first retrograding westward to west-southwestward, may weaken as a trough begins to impringe on the ridge from the Great Lakes and east-central U.S., most likely from the east-central U.S., putting the wave axis likely just off the Florida coast by early Saturday after slowing and beginning to interact with a middle to upper-level trough.

Take a look at the latest 72 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

It has most of the wave in the central Caribbean with a strong ridge over the top. I don't see how your scenario could play out if this forecast is correct. I still think it will be a Gulf system with the furthest north scenaro being the Florida coast. It really does all depend on where a system tries to spin up along the wave though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY RAPID ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

The NHC mentioned Rapid Organization. Even though they said conditions are not favorable for RO, what if conditions were favorable for rapid organization?

[wxmann_91]

Seriously, some of you nitpick the NHC disco a lot. Like when you see development is not likely for next several days you think that afterwards it means development is likely, something like that. Not saying it's bad, just an observation.

Several days down the road a strong Bermuda High is expected to develop over the Atlantic. This would send any storm toward North America rather than out to sea.

The question is, is a storm going to develop? Well we'll need that ULL over the central Atlantic to move away or dissipate first. This feature has dominated over the last two months and thus has sent those 40 kt westerlies zooming across the MDR.

[Opal storm]

and then after that, the strong ridge to the north may lead to this thing becoming a Gulf issue toward the early to middle part of next week.

Personally, I doubt that. Although the wave may be closer to the Bahamas and southeast/east-central Florida earlier than indicated in some office discussions, the mid-level ridging, after first retrograding westward to west-southwestward, may weaken as a trough begins to impringe on the ridge from the Great Lakes and east-central U.S., most likely from the east-central U.S., putting the wave axis likely just off the Florida coast by early Saturday after slowing and beginning to interact with a middle to upper-level trough.

Take a look at the latest 72 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

It has most of the wave in the central Caribbean with a strong ridge over the top. I don't see how your scenario could play out if this forecast is correct. I still think it will be a Gulf system with the furthest north scenaro being the Florida coast. It really does all depend on where a system tries to spin up along the wave though.

That is a huge ridge they have forecasted,notice how all the tropical waves ahead of it are going into Mexico and missing the Gulf becuase of that ridge.Unless a weakens forms in the ridge which would allow the "storm" to turn north into the Gulf,it's most likely going to miss the Gulf and be pushed into Mexico.

[gatorcane]

something else to watch out for especially over the next 24-48 hours. Looks like it is trying to tap some moisture from a feature SW of it - that could certainly enhance the convection over our Low - I am curious to see if that happens. Diurnal activity is the most likely, sometime during the late night hours of each cycle.

Well as I predicted last night, our wave has certainly tapped some moisture and is showing some reds and oranges, however, I do think it will be tough for it to develop any further. It should remain a highly amplified wave with periodic blowups of convection as it moves West. A couple of weeks later with a weaker TUTT and we would probably have seen something forming about now.

[gatorcane]

Here is another reason for the blowup in convection. Not by coincidence, just when the wave leaves the African Dust it starts to explode. Notice how the wave is no longer embedded in the SAL:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

and then after that, the strong ridge to the north may lead to this thing becoming a Gulf issue toward the early to middle part of next week.

Personally, I doubt that. Although the wave may be closer to the Bahamas and southeast/east-central Florida earlier than indicated in some office discussions, the mid-level ridging, after first retrograding westward to west-southwestward, may weaken as a trough begins to impringe on the ridge from the Great Lakes and east-central U.S., most likely from the east-central U.S., putting the wave axis likely just off the Florida coast by early Saturday after slowing and beginning to interact with a middle to upper-level trough.

Take a look at the latest 72 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

It has most of the wave in the central Caribbean with a strong ridge over the top. I don't see how your scenario could play out if this forecast is correct. I still think it will be a Gulf system with the furthest north scenaro being the Florida coast. It really does all depend on where a system tries to spin up along the wave though.

That is a huge ridge they have forecasted,notice how all the tropical waves ahead of it are going into Mexico and missing the Gulf becuase of that ridge.Unless a weakens forms in the ridge which would allow the "storm" to turn north into the Gulf,it's most likely going to miss the Gulf and be pushed into Mexico.

This wave is a little further north than the first few waves though, so it may be able reach the Gulf. Also, the ridge does seem to weaken a bit once you get into the central and western Gulf hinting at more of a WNW or NW movement. It all also depends on where a potential "system" develops.

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY RAPID
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.


8 PM Discussion.

[MiamiensisWx]

Seriously, some of you nitpick the NHC disco a lot. Like when you see development is not likely for next several days you think that afterwards it means development is likely, something like that. Not saying it's bad, just an observation.

Several days down the road a strong Bermuda High is expected to develop over the Atlantic. This would send any storm toward North America rather than out to sea.

The question is, is a storm going to develop? Well we'll need that ULL over the central Atlantic to move away or dissipate first. This feature has dominated over the last two months and thus has sent those 40 kt westerlies zooming across the MDR.

I wasn't nitpicking any NHC or NWS discussions. I was just using the Miami NWS discussion as a reference for my point.

As for the wave, I meant that it would likely arrive closer to Florida and the Bahamas slightly (not much) earlier than the Miami NWS discussion stated. That's not really a nitpick, just a thought. Also, as the system interacts with the trough, it likely may slow down more as it drifts close to the Florida coast possibly. The synoptics support some impact to land.

[HUC]

Here in Guadeloupe,we are seen the wave passage,withthunderstorms,and rain,but not so heavy (at this time!),the winds are variable,around 15miles,with isolated gusts of 20miles(but i'am in the leeward side of the island...(city of Basse-Terre)

[jabber]

The way I look at it is that its going to run the islands in its path. If it was a developed storm then maybe it could thread through. This wave does not even have a LLC. Not going to happen IMHO.

[gatorcane]

The way I look at it is that its going to run the islands in its path. If it was a developed storm then maybe it could thread through. This wave does not even have a LLC. Not going to happen IMHO.

I agree with you on this wave....

[SouthFloridawx]

This is gonna be our next invest.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is gonna be our next invest.

I think so too.

[BensonTCwatcher]

TUTT is still hangin in there, but my guess is (still) in 48 hours or so we'll have a closed circ. at least if not a TD. If I'm not mistaken we may be seeing the early signs of the trough eroding and thus the shear

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

[boca]

I don't think this wave will affect Florida its moving west at 20mph which places it roughly Central Cuba southward by Sat. The Keys might get the northern fringe. My reasoning is the high is supposed to build in stronger which would keep the wave on a west path not WNW towards Florida.