TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.

[Typhoon]

I thought the feathered appearance was an indication of the presence of shear, not of it subsiding.

Can someone explain what the feathered appearance indicates?

[Stormcenter]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

Does it have it headed toward the AL/Fl border?

[theworld]

Has anyone else noticed that the western edge has suddenly become "feathery" instead of a solid line of demarcation? This could mean that the westerly shear is easing up a good bit:

Yeah, I'm interested in knowing what is causing that too - your graphic doesn't show it as well as - but if you go look at the wv now it's really noticeable. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Yeah, I noticed that too. Why would shear from west to east cause that, or is it intesification?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival

The NHC also seemed more concerned about Chris being affected. They seem much less concerned with this one. Also, isn't the entire setup different? Chris was surrounded by 2 ULLs.

[LAStorm01]

LAStorm....which met was that? Chip Barrere said he sees signs of the shear decreasing. Also, if you look at the last 24 hours, the shear has been decreasing while the gulf is getting the perfect setup.

Hi Sky. Here is the final thoughts from the met...

Right now it is Friday evening, and there is no cause for alarm, just be sure to keep it in the back of your mind over the weekend. We'll know a lot more after this weekend. We may not even be talking about Ernesto by Monday (let's hope!) Over the weekend, Dawn Brown will be updating I-Weather every time a new updated advisory comes out, and of course we'll be updating the blog and forums whenever we get a chance.

Laura
_________________
Laura Buchtel
Meteorologist

[Opal storm]

Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival

A lot of people also thought Chris would become a major hurricane in the Gulf just like now with Ernesto.

[rockyman]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.

I'd recommend looking again and reading the legend...This is based on 18z.

[jwayne]

I thought the feathered appearance was an indication of the presence of shear, not of it subsiding.

Can someone explain what the feathered appearance indicates?

maybe it's "chicken" of the shear?? (how bad was that??)

[Noles2006]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.

Isn't the "C" for "current" as in current location of the LLC?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Do I need to remind everyone that Chris looked MUCH better than Ernesto does.

Chris had consensus Dvorak numbers of 4.0/4.0. Satellite data said Chris was a hurricane

Yet, it was sheared off completely in just a few hours

This is one reason in the forecast I did give this only a 60% chance of survival

A lot of people also thought Chris would become a major hurricane in the Gulf just like now with Ernesto.

Imagine what a bust that would be for the NHC though. Chris had already reached a 65mph storm and was forecast to become 75mph. This one, however, is only a 45mph storm and they are already forecasting it to become a 100mph storm. I seriously do not think the NHC would make such a strong forecast for a storm they thought could completely die off.

[clfenwi]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.

It's not old, it's from today's 18Z model runs... the point marked A (east of the islands) is where the disturbance began, the point marked C is/was current.

[skysummit]

LAStorm....which met was that? Chip Barrere said he sees signs of the shear decreasing. Also, if you look at the last 24 hours, the shear has been decreasing while the gulf is getting the perfect setup.

Hi Sky. Here is the final thoughts from the met...

Right now it is Friday evening, and there is no cause for alarm, just be sure to keep it in the back of your mind over the weekend. We'll know a lot more after this weekend. We may not even be talking about Ernesto by Monday (let's hope!) Over the weekend, Dawn Brown will be updating I-Weather every time a new updated advisory comes out, and of course we'll be updating the blog and forums whenever we get a chance.

Laura
_________________
Laura Buchtel
Meteorologist

Ok...Laurel, that makes sense. Her and Dawn are the two reasons why I stopped watching WWL. Ever sense John and David left, their meteorolgy crew went downhill IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not sure if everyone has seen this "model consensus map" from FSU:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... html#track

look how old it is though. It has the center being east of the islands.

Isn't the "C" for "current" as in current location of the LLC?

yes, your right. sorry.

[miamicanes177]

those using GOES infrared...do the cloud tops appear white on your screen? Mine used to but now instead of getting the white I get a really dark red. How can I change it back to them being white?

[cpdaman]

system is moving into an area where the shear is a bit higher

do some people on this board remind you of politicians who basically use words to bend what they said earlier to fit just about every scenario that seems to be unfolding

[Noles2006]

... and the reason for the consensus being so far east is because of NOGAPS..

[Mac]

On that water vapor image, you can also see that feathered appearance happening simulateously on the southeast side of the storm. It appears only in the last few frames. What in the world would cause that on both sides of the storm like that??? I've only seen that before with shear. But on both sides of the storm at the same time???

[skysummit]

... and the reason for the consensus being so far east is because of NOGAPS..

Yea...it's kind of like the CONU has a virus or something

[Noles2006]

Mac - my guess is improving outflow...