SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[JenBayles]

Happens every year, doesn't it? Just when you think we're through with the Houston Miseries, it comes back and gives you one last slap or two in the face. I have to admit, I'm dragging around again after enjoying the dry cool weather we experienced. Just keep the AC going and stay inside.

[jasons2k]

Some areas in the north are getting some decent rains this afternoon. The radar shows my house is getting pounded pretty good - it's good to get some rain with a hot & dry week ahead.

Looks like I get another weekend of pool weather too
After that, I think it'll be done for the season. Oct 7-8 isn't bad though - no complaints from me with the extended summer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

storms are firing just to my NE this afternoon and providing some good lightning and thunder in the distance. The last clap of thunder sounded close though. Makes me feel special to be so close to a storm on a day when there was only a 10% chance of rain.

As for the rest of the week...it continues to look hot with highs in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70. There is also the chance of fog the next few mornings as it will be quite muggy. The next chance of rain seems to be this upcoming Sunday as a CF approaches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
215 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX
IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTN. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THEN
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

A LARGE 500 MB HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS TX/LA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER SE TX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
ACTUALLY OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH PWS DROPPING TO THE 1.1-1.4 INCH
RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY SEE A COUPLE OF SMALL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ONE WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST WHICH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WEDNESDAY TO OUR FAR SW ZONES. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF 20 POPS. THE OTHER IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL
JUST NE OF THE CWA THU/THU NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG BOTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS SHOW THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
LATEST ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER NRN ARIZONA
12Z MONDAY. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREES CLOSELY WITH THE 12Z GFS.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS UNFOLD AS THIS TYPE
OF A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE THROWN IN 20 POPS FOR SUN/MON.

[JenBayles]

All of y'all up north are definitely the special ones today. So far, the Bear Creek Dome has held steady. Just cloudy skies and threatening rain, but not delivering. Drat!

[Yankeegirl]

We got a few drops here, I did hear the thunder!!!

[PTrackerLA]

I hate to intrude on the "Houston" thread but we're close enough neighbors to have generally similar weather and there's no need to start another thread! It's hot and it's going to be hot for at least another week. Temperatures in the low 90's throughout the week might even threaten a few record highs. Looks like a cold front MIGHT come through next Tuesday, but it's too far out to tell for sure at this time. Time for me to ignore the weather this week and hope next week brings a return of fall because this is ridiculous .

[KatDaddy]

PTrackerLA you are always welcomed on any Houston thread. Weather seems abnormal to me this time of year. Perhaps I am just getting old. Still feeling the whiplash from Rita. What a scare it was for me. The last major tropical scare like that was Gilbert 1988 and Allen 1980.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes, it is abnormal when compared to climate averages, but really we are just making up for the 2-4 week early start we got on the cold fronts. Things should be back to (or below) October normals by the end of next week, and if JB is correct...mid to late October could be a downright chilly period east of the rockies. Hopefully it verifies! I am ready for the first day when I can wear long sleeves and feel comfortable in them!

BTW: JB thinks the cold weather coming later this month may be "November-like" all the way to Texas, and he says the transition may be like going from August one day, to November a few days later. If this is correct, then it might mean quite a blast of cold down the road...may be one even worthy of jackets, which I wouldn't mind.

[vbhoutex]

PTrackerLA you are always welcomed on any Houston thread. Weather seems abnormal to me this time of year. Perhaps I am just getting old. Still feeling the whiplash from Rita. What a scare it was for me. The last major tropical scare like that was Gilbert 1988 and Allen 1980.

What about Alicia(1983)? Or what am I missing?

[jasons2k]

EWG if you are always looking for cold you might want to consider Texas Tech, in Lubbock, for your college studies. That's where I went and there is plenty of cold there in winter.

Here in Houston, for the most part it will be a futile effort. That's one reason why I moved here from Dallas - to get away from the cold & ice (at least most of it).

[Extremeweatherguy]

what a foggy morning it has been. Still pretty thick fog out there even now at 9:20am.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those that like Fall, and still want a little hope...check out the 0Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That major trough depicted by the end of the run could mean a major cooldown; exactly what JB has been mentioning the last few days. There also seems to be some much needed rainfall forecasted by the GFS as well. Could get interesting next week and beyond..

There is even a severe weather threat too (according to the SPC) that may have to be addressed:

OTHERWISE...00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A LATE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SWRN DESERTS THAN
THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THIS MAY BECOME A FACTOR IN POSSIBLE
SVR WEATHER OVER THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A PSBL SVR WEATHER
AREA.

ALSO: In the short term, a "dry" front (a.k.a. "cool" front) should come through Thurs./Fri. and drop highs and lows by a few degrees with lower humidity.

[JenBayles]

Typical Houston: feast or famine, but never boring for long.

[KatDaddy]

Hi there VB!

Yes Alicia was another scare. I think I was thinking of CAT 4/5s which created massive evacuation several days before their eventual landfalls.
I tend to overlook Alicia as a massive hurricane dur to her size. It all relative when it comes down to it. I for one was in the NE/E/SE eyewall of Alicia and she packed a punch

[JenBayles]

We also didn't have the media hype buildup to Alicia because she was "supposed" to maintain a westerly course, if memory serves. I went to bed at 10:00 p.m. as usual the night before expecting the usual workday routine in the morning. Woke up at 5:00 a.m. to weather I hope never to experience again. The non-stop wind noise drove me crazy! Alicia's abrupt midnight turn to the north just goes to show you Mother Nature doesn't always follow what computer models and science tell us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The front next week may be our official Fall marker! Accuweather and model forecasts show highs likely staying below 82F starting next Wed/Thurs and lasting through the end of the 15 day period. I wouldn't even be surprised to see highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s after some of the stronger fronts push through next week and the week after.

[Johnny]

Yep, I've got a feeling the cool air will be coming down mid next week. I sure hope so because I sweated to death sitting in my deer stand this past Saturday! I was pouring water over my head just to keep cool.

[double D]

According to the Dallas-Fort Worth AFD it might not be as cool as we thought.

THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE BACKING
OFF ON MOVING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS MON-TUE AND FAVOR THE
LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HOLD ANY
FRONTS OR COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THE NEW
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS SOLUTIONS ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE COLD FRONT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to the Dallas-Fort Worth AFD it might not be as cool as we thought.

THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE BACKING
OFF ON MOVING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS MON-TUE AND FAVOR THE
LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HOLD ANY
FRONTS OR COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THE NEW
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS SOLUTIONS ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE COLD FRONT.

18Z GFS shows a pretty decent CF moving through on Wednesday... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml ...still looks like a respectable cool down to me. Then, by next Thursday it shows a 1020mb high sitting right over the state with a north breeze right into Houston... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml .

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, JB is also still calling for a period of cool weather from mid October until early/mid November across the central and eastern U.S.

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ALSO, just in case you didn't know: Another Fog advisory has been posted for tonight.