Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

#201 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 21, 2007 1:14 pm

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N80W. THE TROUGH IS NO
LONGER DRIFTING WESTWARD BUT INSTEAD HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG 82W. MODERATE TO STRONG E-SE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROUGH WHEREAS LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS
EXIST TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER WLY UPPER FLOW...EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA AND
FURTHER NE IN THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TAIL END OF A W ATLC TROUGH. THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN IS MARKED
BY A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF
THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AND IS ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

#202 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 21, 2007 1:37 pm

12z GFS 5/21/07 Long Range Loop

:uarrow:

What I like of the GFS is it's consistent solution of a low moving from the Caribbean northward towards the Florida Penninsula.I would like to see more models showing this same solution.

By the way what happened with the Euro that last week was showing a very strong system?

#203 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon May 21, 2007 1:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS 5/21/07 Long Range Loop

What I like of the GFS is it's consistent solution of a low moving from the Caribbean northward towards the Florida Penninsula.I would like to see more models showing this same solution.

By the way what happened with the Euro that last week was showing a very strong system?

Luis, just great -- I welcome a weak system with lots of rainfall as we need it here in South Florida, but a stronger system needs to stay away. We have already been in the cone once this year, albeit with a subtropical system. :grrr:

B'hamBlazer · #204 Postby **B'hamBlazer** » Mon May 21, 2007 3:09 pm

Still kind of out there in voodoo land... GFS has been fairly consistent in projecting a general motion like this for a while. I think we're all hoping for this one, so for our sake here in Central Alabama, I'd like to see it head towards the northern Gulf. I personally do believe it will move into the southern GoM, but beyond that, I'm not sure.

Extremeweatherguy · #205 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon May 21, 2007 3:45 pm

B'hamBlazer wrote:Still kind of out there in voodoo land... GFS has been fairly consistent in projecting a general motion like this for a while. I think we're all hoping for this one, so for our sake here in Central Alabama, I'd like to see it head towards the northern Gulf. I personally do believe it will move into the southern GoM, but beyond that, I'm not sure.

I agree. Beyond that point it really could be anyone's game (assuming something forms in the first place). If there is a late season front in the area at the time, then it would be a good bet for FL, but if all is open and there are no systems coming from the west, then I think the northern or western GOM could be prime targets for a potential system 5-15 days down the road.

#206 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon May 21, 2007 3:55 pm

it's "poofitizing" right now as we speak....

#207 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon May 21, 2007 4:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:it's "poofitizing" right now as we speak....

I don't think I've ever heard that word before. :lol:

#208 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 21, 2007 6:00 pm

18z GFS 5/21/07 Long Range Loop

:uarrow:

GFS continues to be consistent.Euro,where are you?

HURRICANELONNY · #209 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon May 21, 2007 6:12 pm

Has the GFS ever been even close to right this far out??? :roll:

#210 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 21, 2007 7:11 pm

A very interesting paragrafh from the 8:05 PM EDT discussion from TPC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
APPARENT MOVEMENT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N80W TO 16N82W TO 10N82W WITH HINTS THAT A LOW MAY BE PRESENT
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N. THE GFS DOES
SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY
TO FORM. THERE EXISTS QUITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE NE PACIFIC ITCZ WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED
MONSOON TROUGH REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH LOW
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
REGARDLESS IF THIS DEVELOPS...SUBSTANTIAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html

MusicCityMan · #211 Postby **MusicCityMan** » Mon May 21, 2007 7:21 pm

Send a weak system up here. We need the rain..

#212 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon May 21, 2007 7:42 pm

snippet from 8:05pm TWD......IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY
TO FORM.
:eek:

Wow now lets see this board take off!

#213 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon May 21, 2007 7:44 pm

I still think Alvin has a better chance than Barry.

#214 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 21, 2007 7:45 pm

HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

There are two sides.Here is the caveat.

Berwick Bay · #215 Postby **Berwick Bay** » Mon May 21, 2007 7:51 pm

Well I'm surprised that the normally conservative NHC advisory would make that statement about tropical cyclone formation not being out of the question. I should have checked to see who the meterologist was who made that statement. Anyway, I feel sort of the same way of course. Its just that I do take the caveat that the system will be too close to land and that there may be a natural movement to the north of the Thunderstorms as upper level conditions gradually improve in the NW Carribean. This is the foundation of the Berwick Forecast calling for a Tropical Depression to form in the southern Gulf in oh, about a week. The whole process of drifting north, and improving upper level conditions will take time.

#216 Postby **NDG** » Mon May 21, 2007 8:19 pm

Indeed very interesting tropical discussion from Dr Landsea at the NHC this evening, for him to write it, it makes you wonder.

We could have a very interesting first week of official start of the Hurricane season.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #217 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon May 21, 2007 8:54 pm

Oh my, we really could have a tropical system in the next week
A second one...this early!!!

#218 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon May 21, 2007 9:21 pm

Chris Landsea is about the most interesting fellow over there. Right up there with our friend Stacy Stewart.

jaxfladude · #219 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon May 21, 2007 11:19 pm

So is it E Pac or or S. Caribbean and maybe S Gulf of Mex. Hopefully some heavy-minor flooding Tropical Rains for Florida. ?

jaxfladude · #220 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon May 21, 2007 11:20 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Oh my, we really could have a tropical system in the next week
A second one...this early!!!

So what is the pace for number of Sub-Fully Tropical Systems?

Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

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