Alex Advisories

[ColdFront77]

I understand, Stormchaser. I was more so referring to what I said in the chatroom yesterday. My observation wasn't taken with much regard.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 01, 2004

...Alex stationary...watches and warnings extended...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
southward and now extends from South Santee River South Carolina to
Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued for north of
Cape Hatteras to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect from Edisto Beach to South Santee River
South Carolina.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 31.7 north... longitude 79.2 west or about 90 miles
south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex has been stationary for much of the day...however...a slow
motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected overnight.
On the forecast track...the center of Alex will be slowly
approaching the south and North Carolina coasts over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Conditions favor some slow strengthening over the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...mainly
in squalls to the south and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...31.7 N... 79.2 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

[TerryAlly]

Talk about a busy Sunday afternoon HS chief Tom Ridge special press conference to announce a hike in the terror alert for NYC and NJ. Named specific targets, but no clue as to "when."

Think Al Qaeda plans to use TS Alex in NYC & NJ

(I know it's no laughing matter )

[Dmetal81]

I have never posted here before, but im an avid hurricane tracker. Ive been noticing to decent pressure drops in the Atlantic bouys. More rapid then ive seen even when the Pre-alex low was approaching. Could be a precursor to some strengthing while over those warm gulfstream waters. Comments anyone?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=41012
East of Jacksonville -.05 in the last hour and -.02 in the two hours before that.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=41008
-.06 last hour and -.03 the hour before that.

These are both off to the west of the presumed center and are showing 29.92 and 29.88 repspectively. Minimum central pressure was only 29.82 at 2pm, so this could mean a pressure drop w/ 5pm advisory. As far as I know the pressure usually drops before the thunderstorms start to kick off, so we'll see if the satellite pictures responds in kind.

[Brent]

Forecast track now keeps it JUST offshore, JUST south of Cape Fear, NC at 2pm tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 01, 2004

the reconnaissance aircraft investigating the depression early this
afternoon found 41 kt winds in the southeast quadrant at a flight
level of 1000 ft...which adjusts to about 33 kt at the surface. The
crew also estimated the sustained surface winds to be 35 kt. On
this basis...the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm at
18z. Fixes from the aircraft showed that the center is moving
little and lies just north of the area of deep convection. There
are other signs that the cyclone structure is improving...with a
circulation that appears to be less elongated than it was earlier
in the day...multiple swirls notwithstanding...and the development
of a little outflow to the northwest of the deep convection. This
latter trend is likely the precursor to a somewhat more favorable
upper air pattern over the next 24 hours...as Alex comes underneath
some anticyclonic flow before the southwesterlies arrive.
Consequently...some strengthening appears in the official intensity
forecast. The SHIPS intensity guidance is more aggressive...
bringing Alex to near 60 kt in 36 hours. As the upper flow
changes...Alex will likely become somewhat more symmetric in its
convective pattern and wind field.

The initial motion is stationary. Model guidance is in good
agreement that a northeastward motion should begin soon...but the
models will probably underestimate the drag of the current
convective asymmetry. Due to the stationary motion today...there
is more time for Alex to be caught up in the approaching
southwesterly flow. As a result...the official forecast has been
nudged slightly to the right of the previous track and toward the
consensus of the dynamical guidance. Nevertheless...the center is
still expected to come very close to the coastline.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/2100z 31.7n 79.2w 35 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 32.4n 78.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 33.5n 77.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 34.7n 75.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 36.5n 72.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 41.0n 64.0w 45 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 46.0n 52.0w 45 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 06/1800z...absorbed by extratropical low

[The Dark Knight]

We will............,/...

[Stormchaser16]

5PM it was still 1010 MB

[Dmetal81]

Missed one bouy, this one to the east of SC, shows a more dramatic drop. -.07 last hour, winds are steady at 21knts, 5pm advisory also advised of reorganization. Interesting, they dont sound so sure of movement at this point, we shall see. Located in Columbia, SC here, and seeing the seabreaze come through as a squall enhanced line, rainfall was definitely more tropical than usual, but I dont imagine we'll see much else from it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=41004

[Opal storm]

Sorry Ill try and be more on top of things next time.

No big deal Corpusbreeze,it's okay,I've done that a lot before and so has everybody else.

As for the people who responded to the topic,so what if someone makes a small mistake,don't make such a big deal out of it.

[Air Force Met]

Missed one bouy, this one to the east of SC, shows a more dramatic drop. -.07 last hour, winds are steady at 21knts, 5pm advisory also advised of reorganization. Interesting, they dont sound so sure of movement at this point, we shall see. Located in Columbia, SC here, and seeing the seabreaze come through as a squall enhanced line, rainfall was definitely more tropical than usual, but I dont imagine we'll see much else from it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=41004

It's a diurnal pressure drop. The pressure always falls this time of the afternoon given no other atmospheric changes. No big change.

Always look for pressure falls at 4am and 4pm local...followed by pressure rises at 10am and 10pm local. The biggest rise happens at 10am and the biggest fall occurs at 4 pm. If the pressure drop is 2 mb or so in the afternoon...it is likely diurnal. If it is more than that...then there is something going on.

[senorpepr]

As for the people who responded to the topic,so what if someone makes a small mistake,don't make such a big deal out of it.

Actually, they didn't make a big deal about it.

Tropical Storm 1*.....

He was just commenting that it was now upgraded.

Corpusbreeze, the 2:00 Intermediate Advisory was issued no later than 1:45pm Eastern Time, which was exactly a half hour after you made your post/created this thread.

Tom was just saying that Corpusbreeze wouldn't have known about the upgrade since her post came out a half hour before the NHC posted their advisory.

All is good. Smile!

[senorpepr]

Outstanding update Luis!

[Dmetal81]

I was not aware of that, thank you that info

[ColdFront77]

Absolutely right, Mike. I was kindly making a response to what Corpusbreeze said.

[ColdFront77]

What is an average pressure drop for the mid to late afternoon hours?

I would think 0.05" to 0.07" falls are minimally reasonable drops.

[Opal storm]

Sorry,i'm not upset at anybody,it just looked liked you guys kept beating the subject after Corpus breeze said he was sorry for his mistake.

[ColdFront77]

Only two, maybe three of us made a response, mine was the most negative sounding.

[Stormchaser16]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Could this be a sign of it reforming a LLC under the convection? Sure looks like it, because it doesnt appear like convection is displaced from an LLC anymore(even though it technically is) it is taking on an appearance that looks like it wants to do something.....

[Derek Ortt]

of more importance, look at the ourflow rapidly becoming more circular.

This needs to get inland within 36 or else we may very well have a cane on our hands

[The Dark Knight]

That would be quite a site!!!!!!!!!!!