Western Caribbean Disturbance

[Portastorm]

Come on man. When will you guys learn. You know models have a hard time with upper winds aloft several days down the road. Models didn't handle the ULL's movement that plaqued TD10 well at all. It is a wait and see. Condionts can change quickly just as they can linger longer than models expected.

Not that I would ever want to counter Wxman57's analysis as he has probably forgotten more meteorology than I'll ever know ... but you have a good point, caneman. From my strictly amateur eyes, I know that the prognosis for TD #10 changed several times a day as each model run would come out and the "shear" issue seemed to change with each run. I remember thinking after reading some posts by the pros "now wait a minute, didn't you say yesterday that the upper level winds would be hostile? Now today it looks like they won't be hostile? What changed?"

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[wxman57]

Come on man. When will you guys learn. You know models have a hard time with upper winds aloft several days down the road. Models didn't handle the ULL's movement that plaqued TD10 well at all. It is a wait and see. Condionts can change quickly just as they can linger longer than models expected.

Not that I would ever want to counter Wxman57's analysis as he has probably forgotten more meteorology than I'll ever know ... but you have a good point, caneman. From my strictly amateur eyes, I know that the prognosis for TD #10 changed several times a day as each model run would come out and the "shear" issue seemed to change with each run. I remember thinking after reading some posts by the pros "now wait a minute, didn't you say yesterday that the upper level winds would be hostile? Now today it looks like they won't be hostile? What changed?"

While it is true that I've even said you cannot blindly trust the upper-air forecasts from the models, you can usually trust them when the event is already happening and unfolding before your eyes. That means you can't decide not to trust the forecasts when they don't fit your desires. The GFS did handle the upper low forecast with TD 10 very well. No reason to assume it's wrong now.

[vaffie]

Agree. Right now, the GFS is progging an upper high to the east of the tropical disturbance low in the Gulf of Mexico--shearing it as a result, but if it were stronger than is predicted--which I certainly wouldn't be surprised at, the high might center itself over the system... Keep in mind too that though it's expected to have shear, that shear is going to be in the same direction it's moving anyway, so in reality it's not going to be that bad--in fact it could create a stronger outflow channel for intensification. It's something to watch, for SURE.

[Portastorm]

Come on man. When will you guys learn. You know models have a hard time with upper winds aloft several days down the road. Models didn't handle the ULL's movement that plaqued TD10 well at all. It is a wait and see. Condionts can change quickly just as they can linger longer than models expected.

Not that I would ever want to counter Wxman57's analysis as he has probably forgotten more meteorology than I'll ever know ... but you have a good point, caneman. From my strictly amateur eyes, I know that the prognosis for TD #10 changed several times a day as each model run would come out and the "shear" issue seemed to change with each run. I remember thinking after reading some posts by the pros "now wait a minute, didn't you say yesterday that the upper level winds would be hostile? Now today it looks like they won't be hostile? What changed?"

While it is true that I've even said you cannot blindly trust the upper-air forecasts from the models, you can usually trust them when the event is already happening and unfolding before your eyes. That means you can't decide not to trust the forecasts when they don't fit your desires. The GFS did handle the upper low forecast with TD 10 very well. No reason to assume it's wrong now.

That makes a lot of sense to me. Proven, real time model accuracy beats projected accuracy any day of the week!

[lrak]

this one might give the lower TX coast some surf.

[vaffie]

The area south of Cozumel has now reached 80 vorticity units at 925 mb--slightly less than what TD10 has--indicating that a surface circulation is probably forming.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Just 35 miles to the south of where the center is forming (I believe--at 18.5N, 87W), a ship just reported a light southwest wind and a pressure of 1009.8 mb. I would estimate that the center has a pressure of 1009 mb right now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Actually, i think the GFS in incorrect in the near term (48 hours) with the placement of the surface low. Based on what we are seeing now, them most likely place for a low to form is just E of the Yucatan. IF one forms, it likely wont move quickly enough to find itself in the central Gulf by Sunday evening. Right now, it looks like the low would move NW, and be over the Yuc by Sunday PM... still not great for development, since it will be over land, but not in the central gulf IMO. This looks like a slow moving BOC to Mexico system to me. Doesnt probably just a TS at best since it will eventually run into that W gulf shear.

Another possibility: Steering currents dont look particularly strong at the moment... perhaps this emerges on the N coast of the Yucatan come Mon or Tues. Upper level winds might be less hostile by that time. If it moves slowly enough, a trough might eventually grab it and pull it N into the gulf. Any troughs expected late next week that would be strong enough?

[punkyg]

94L is up

[Emmett_Brown]

94L is up

I misplaced the NRL link... anyone have it?

[Portastorm]

Here it is:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[punkyg]

Well HURAKAN are you gonna make the thread?

[lrak]

Yay Surf! So this thing looks to go North and hit the upper TX or LA coast? Or is it too early.

[Sanibel]

We got the dry slot on the rainfall from TD10. Maybe an inch to keep the drought watered. We could use a good rainer over us from 94L.

[lrak]

The area south of Cozumel has now reached 80 vorticity units at 925 mb--slightly less than what TD10 has--indicating that a surface circulation is probably forming.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Just 35 miles to the south of where the center is forming (I believe--at 18.5N, 87W), a ship just reported a light southwest wind and a pressure of 1009.8 mb. I would estimate that the center has a pressure of 1009 mb right now.

you can see the low clouds on the peninsula going SW right were you said.

[chadtm80]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=98207