ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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Stormcenter
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#2001 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:56 pm

SE Texas here comes Don. (IMO)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2002 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:58 pm

plasticup wrote:
hurricanejustin wrote:Let's get purely hypothetical here...lets say this thing goes into Matagorda as a cat 1...what would Houston be looking at? (I'm in Kingwood - NE Harris Co., btw)

A drought buster, primarily. Obviously the winds would be a little damaging but the storm is small-ish so there's not much worry about surge. Frankly, every home on the Texas coast should be able to survive a Cat 1. I expect there would be some damage, but nothing catastrophic.


So you are telling me my mom's house on the west end of Galveston, on the beach should be ok?

thats a relief...
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Re:

#2003 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:59 pm

Stormcenter wrote:SE Texas here comes Don. (IMO)


hope he doesnt take some steroids on the way... :lol:
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#2004 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:00 pm

641
URNT15 KNHC 271957
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 19 20110727
194800 2233N 08658W 9761 00288 0088 +220 +155 107029 031 028 002 00
194830 2232N 08700W 9763 00283 0086 +220 +153 103030 031 030 000 03
194900 2231N 08701W 9761 00285 0087 +220 +152 102028 031 027 001 00
194930 2229N 08702W 9759 00288 0086 +220 +151 101032 034 030 000 00
195000 2228N 08704W 9761 00284 0085 +222 +151 094030 031 028 000 00
195030 2227N 08705W 9763 00284 0086 +222 +153 087029 031 026 000 00
195100 2226N 08706W 9761 00283 0085 +221 +155 082028 031 023 000 03
195130 2224N 08707W 9764 00282 0084 +220 +157 083026 027 023 000 03
195200 2223N 08708W 9763 00281 0083 +220 +159 078023 025 023 001 00
195230 2221N 08708W 9760 00283 0081 +222 +160 075019 021 022 000 00
195300 2220N 08709W 9759 00282 0079 +222 +161 074020 021 019 000 00
195330 2218N 08709W 9764 00278 0079 +221 +162 067019 020 019 001 03
195400 2217N 08709W 9762 00278 0079 +220 +163 059018 018 015 000 00
195430 2215N 08709W 9761 00278 0078 +220 +164 053019 019 013 000 03
195500 2214N 08708W 9746 00288 0076 +219 +164 048019 020 012 001 00
195530 2212N 08707W 9748 00284 0074 +220 +164 034020 021 015 001 03
195600 2211N 08706W 9742 00289 0070 +219 +163 017019 020 015 002 00
195630 2210N 08705W 9743 00285 0068 +220 +163 001018 019 016 001 00
195700 2208N 08704W 9750 00277 0065 +227 +162 344014 015 017 002 00
195730 2207N 08703W 9744 00282 0062 +228 +163 336013 014 019 003 03
$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2005 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:00 pm

Navy has 04L.Four now... so we have atleast a TD
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#2006 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:01 pm

It looks like it headed right toward the upper Texas coastline. IMO
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Re:

#2007 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:01 pm

fci wrote:Analysis post-season will surely point out some problems with % assignments and decisions made to deactivate 90L and deactivate. 0% just about 24-36 hours ago?
Really???


Whilst I'd have personally not gone that low, at the time it was near 0% it was only just startingb to get going...i'd say the NHC were behind with this thing till about 12hrs ago but at least they've caught up this time, unlike with Bret...

ALL Texas needs to watch this, my gut is it'll go more cental/SW Texas rather than SE Texas but that is all, a gut feeling...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2008 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:02 pm

He is expanding in size as well as he pulls away from the Yucatan. Interesting obs....
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#2009 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2010 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:04 pm

ROCK wrote:He is expanding in size as well as he pulls away from the Yucatan. Interesting obs....


The larger it is, the more Texas will get rain. 8-) Yes, I know there will be wind.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2011 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:04 pm

Wow...some 400+ people are browsing the forum right now. Go Storm2k! I'd encourage those of you who are guests to sign-up and get involved with the best weather board on the net!
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Re: Re:

#2012 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:05 pm

KWT wrote:
fci wrote:Analysis post-season will surely point out some problems with % assignments and decisions made to deactivate 90L and deactivate. 0% just about 24-36 hours ago?
Really???


Whilst I'd have personally not gone that low, at the time it was near 0% it was only just startingb to get going...i'd say the NHC were behind with this thing till about 12hrs ago but at least they've caught up this time, unlike with Bret...

ALL Texas needs to watch this, my gut is it'll go more cental/SW Texas rather than SE Texas but that is all, a gut feeling...


I am thinking Freeport southward as of now...though it does look he is moving NW and trying to pull poleward. He is ramping up quickly now and the stronger he gets now the more north he will go in the short term....he will hit up against the ridge soon enough...JMO..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2013 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:06 pm

ROCK wrote:He is expanding in size as well as he pulls away from the Yucatan. Interesting obs....


yeah I mentioned earlier how once it pulls away from the yucatan the SW inflow will become more prevalent and help with its organization..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2014 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:He is expanding in size as well as he pulls away from the Yucatan. Interesting obs....


yeah I mentioned earlier how once it pulls away from the yucatan the SW inflow will become more prevalent and help with its organization..


noted...just took a peak at the sat view...that inflow is becoming established...
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#2015 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:07 pm

Yes expanding in size and if you look at this loop you can almost see how the flow is carry it toward the NW. JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2016 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:08 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Wow...some 400+ people are browsing the forum right now. Go Storm2k! I'd encourage those of you who are guests to sign-up and get involved with the best weather board on the net!



Best weather board indeed. Cmon guests...just sign up and tell us where you are from. We are all a gigantic family here for the most part. WE all rely on each other as well as the pro mets for info.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2017 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:08 pm

IMHO

Low-end Cat 1 @ best. Mid to lower Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2018 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:He is expanding in size as well as he pulls away from the Yucatan. Interesting obs....


yeah I mentioned earlier how once it pulls away from the yucatan the SW inflow will become more prevalent and help with its organization..


Yep, just need to keep an eye on that dry air to the west, it is quite notable at mid levels...

Does look like its trying to go more poleward, could easily be an illusion of the convective pattern however...
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#2019 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:10 pm

740
URNT15 KNHC 272007
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 20 20110727
195800 2207N 08701W 9746 00276 0058 +231 +165 321013 014 017 003 00
195830 2207N 08659W 9744 00276 0056 +225 +166 332018 021 023 002 00
195900 2207N 08657W 9720 00293 0051 +225 +165 351019 020 022 002 00
195930 2207N 08656W 9728 00278 0041 +242 +163 338023 024 023 000 00
200000 2207N 08654W 9712 00283 0029 +250 +162 334027 029 025 001 00
200030 2207N 08652W 9695 00288 0018 +248 +164 337019 024 021 002 00
200100 2208N 08651W 9742 00245 0015 +250 +168 358008 012 008 002 00
200130 2208N 08649W 9778 00203 0009 +241 +172 084007 009 007 001 03
200200 2208N 08647W 9777 00209 0011 +238 +175 187016 023 005 001 03
200230 2208N 08647W 9777 00209 0017 +236 +177 214026 030 029 002 03
200300 2206N 08649W 9775 00211 0014 +237 +180 229022 025 035 001 00
200330 2206N 08650W 9760 00228 0018 +235 +180 262024 026 040 002 03
200400 2205N 08651W 9765 00228 0026 +241 +180 284032 034 037 002 00
200430 2204N 08653W 9785 00218 0034 +233 +179 283032 032 035 003 03
200500 2204N 08654W 9764 00245 0041 +226 +179 292032 035 034 001 00
200530 2203N 08655W 9766 00245 0046 +229 +177 296029 030 031 002 00
200600 2202N 08657W 9772 00249 0054 +232 +174 296026 027 027 003 00
200630 2202N 08658W 9775 00250 0056 +230 +171 292028 029 028 002 03
200700 2201N 08659W 9758 00265 0058 +235 +169 280028 029 027 002 00
200730 2200N 08701W 9796 00232 0058 +246 +168 278027 028 028 002 00
$$
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#2020 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:11 pm

hmmm...r econ did a sharp south east turn... seems its not moving too much right now. center has not moved since last pass
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