ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Peak surge forecast

https://i.imgur.com/lngp9OL.png

So, with a parallel track to the West coast of Florida, the cyclone basically pushes the water up into the big bend region? Into the purple shaded area?

[TallyTracker]

Leon County only closed schools for tomorrow. After school activities are only canceled today after 6 pm. This could be the worst storm in Tallahassee history and people are left with little time to prepare or evacuate. Many people live in trailers in this area due to the rarity of strong storms. The Big Bend region is very unprepared for this caliber of storm. I’m praying that people will take this seriously and take shelter.

It's hard for the staff, yes, but parents can take their kids out of school today if they feel the need to evacuate today.

Planning evacuations and school closings is hard - there are very real tradeoffs for a lot of people when you do it preemptively. I don't envy those decision makers one bit, because while it seems obvious on one hand that everyone should get out and be safe, people do die in evacuations and people do miss work when school is suddenly closed.

They'll close school on Thursday soon I'm sure.

You are quite right about that. I too do not envy the decision by local officials. They always get flack. I’m mainly looking at it from the staff vantage point as my wife is a teacher. We’re leaving town later today, but the first rainbands will already be approaching by then. I still think it’s rather late school should have been closed earlier. If the trends continue then school will be out Thursday at least due to lack of power.

[LandoWill]

The 11AM advisory backs off the very strong wind probabilities for Tampa Bay. While the 34-49kt probability is 95%, the 50kt-64kt is down to 21% and hurricane force is down to 3%.

yup., afternoon thunderstorms with chance of tornados. i guess since we didn't get any this summer, this is replacement

[TallyTracker]

About 23 more hours over water, there's a distinct possibility of strong cat 4 or even cat 5 at landfall I fear

Saw a post a few minutes ago that said the maximum potential intensity is 153 kts…about 175 mph.

[FLLurker32]

I’ve been watching from west central Marion county. Looks like we’ll likely get tropical storm winds and rain. Possibly some tornadoes in the eastern bands. Still, for us any sustained eastern wobble or if the front comes in just slightly quicker it can change our impacts by a lot.

[underthwx]

Idalia moving North at 14 mph. "A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected while Idalia approaches the Florida
coast through Wednesday morning" (from 11am NHC Idalia discussion)....

[kevin]

Idalia is really RI'ing now imo. The change in satellite appearance over the last hour alone is very impressive.

[Highteeld]

Big uptick in lightning in southern eyewall. Things are looking worse for the Mexico Beach area.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Tallygrl]

About 23 more hours over water, there's a distinct possibility of strong cat 4 or even cat 5 at landfall I fear

Saw a post a few minutes ago that said the maximum potential intensity is 153 kts…about 175 mph.

I’m really starting to get worried. Praying we stay on the west side of this.

[GCANE]

Likely will be Cat 3 at 26.5N

[MississippiWx]

Big uptick in lightning in southern eyewall. Things are looking worse for the Mexico Beach area.

https://i.imgur.com/NuWHfEd.png

Not saying it won't directly impact Mexico Beach, but even the farthest west models do not hit Mexico Beach directly. Would take a pretty significant shift west to put them in the bullseye. Looks like some strong northerly winds and heavy rain for them. The most dangerous part, the surge, will be in the Big Bend south and east of Tallahassee.

[cycloneye]

The next recon will be a must followed one as the trends look upwards. That plane departs around 2:30 PM EDT.

[underthwx]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/9H4PWCN.gif

That satellite loop says it all...this cyclone means business....only one thing to do...get out of its way..nothing you possess, is worth staying thru that, that includes the storm chaser types...no disrespect intended, but the authorities have a full plate on their hands as it is...please be safe people...believe me when I say that my thoughts and concern are of every one of you...

[Steve]

About 23 more hours over water, there's a distinct possibility of strong cat 4 or even cat 5 at landfall I fear

Saw a post a few minutes ago that said the maximum potential intensity is 153 kts…about 175 mph.

I’m really starting to get worried. Praying we stay on the west side of this.

It looks like it will be close either way. You are Tallahassee so you know how many trees there are in and around the city. Even if you're on the west side, you can bet (unless it was to take a radical hook right before landfall) that there will be significant power outages and downed trees. Probably would be worse in Panacea and Crawfordville since they are closer to the coastline. Best to you Tallygrl and TallyTracker.

[SunnyThoughts]

About 23 more hours over water, there's a distinct possibility of strong cat 4 or even cat 5 at landfall I fear

Saw a post a few minutes ago that said the maximum potential intensity is 153 kts…about 175 mph.

I’m really starting to get worried. Praying we stay on the west side of this.

Take care. Make sure got plenty of supplies to take you through a delayed power outage.

[Highteeld]

Straight up rocket fuel until landfall

[Sanibel]

Dangerous Dvorak developing...

Heavy small drop rain here...

Wind picking up but light...

Fist...

[aspen]

It kind of looks like there’s a bit of a dry tongue in Idalia’s CDO. Or maybe it’s just an illusion from the rotating hot tower.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dangerous Dvorak developing...

Heavy small drop rain here...

Wind picking up but light...

Not gonna lie, a had half a mind to count the syllables in this and see if it was a haiku, haha