Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 ive just gone quiet because the other enswmbles keep trying to dump the cold air east of us again, EPS looks the best, I just dont want to get excited just yet again and get burned lol

[TomballEd]

500 mb look has a lot of potential for a big southern plains winter storm Jan 24-26th time frame!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1768478400/1769212800-7UkHc7yfOUg.png

Won't show up as well on a smoothed ensemble as the op. Not as well defined as a true trough line hanging back from a Hudson Bay Low, with well defined NW winds turning W, but my 3/4 glass full optimist eyes sees at least a hint of a a McFarland feature which would hold back the cold air from running down E of the Rockies until the air mass has gotten mega dense and mega cold.

Ok, it is sort of wishful thinking but if I squint right.

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 ive just gone quiet because the other enswmbles keep trying to dump the cold air east of us again, EPS looks the best, I just dont want to get excited just yet again and get burned lol

I hear ya brother. I think this is our best shot.

[txtwister78]

It's a start.

[Quixotic]

Maybe it’s just me but the succession of progressively colder fronts has got me a little bit more chipper. Stepping down until something bigger is possible. Plus, some of these fronts can give us a surprise or two even if it’s just a lake effect flizzard.

[Iceresistance]

Maybe it’s just me but the succession of progressively colder fronts has got me a little bit more chipper. Stepping down until something bigger is possible. Plus, some of these fronts can give us a surprise or two even if it’s just a lake effect flizzard.

Yeah, my local TV met has flurries on Saturday morning, it's at least a start for me

[rwfromkansas]

Well, we are past 100 at least. So, that's something. Lol. At least there are things to watch, I just really hope we don't just revert back after a week reprieve like has been the case so far.

[TomballEd]

Bigger question- does my house get rain weekend after next?

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

[txtwister78]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

Agreed. With that much cold building into the midwest no way it's getting held up once we get that initial surge south.

Seen that movie before with arctic air and modeling further south.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS is a good step in the right direction

Has all the pieces on the board now, hopefully they start coming together. That air will be much denser/colder than modeled considering the 1050 Plus HP entering the plains (Arctic Origin as well).

[Brent]

There's definitely still a snowy signal here next weekend

This may be the longest it's lasted all winter not even kidding