Ivan Advisories

[Rainband]

Nope, it's hard to evacuate the keys they, are being cautious and I agree with them

[Sean in New Orleans]

This is sad......three strikes and you're out. This will devastate the economy of Florida for, at least, a year. Tourism will practically halt on such a tourism dependent state until next Summer, IMO. I'm still hoping it turns for these poor people in Florida. This will likely affect the national economy for some time to come with the huge amounts of job losses in Florida. They were talking about this on FoxNews.

[dhweather]

Always better to be safe than sorry.

I suspect the person that boldly claimed he would be sitting on Duval St this weekend has now found out that he will not be allowed to.

[skysummit]

Our local mets in New Orleans are telling us not to worry that this storm is not coming our direction. I think they shouldn't lead the community into false sense of safety. When talking to other co-workers and friends, I find they are not concerned. No one is watching the storm. I'm afraid if not this storm but maybe the another, this city will be caught off guard.

N.O. Mets are always like that. Even when a storm is 80 miles off the coast, they are still playing it down. Especially Dan Milham on NBC WDSU Ch. 6. According to him, the entire SE coast of LA has some sort of force field around it that will not allow a hurricane to enter.

[Rainband]

Maybe a more west track. I can't see how the NHC track could verify with the ridge building??hmm Maybe the western or Cemtral GOM are the target

[rtd2]

Lions on TWC and local mets say IT WOULD NOT be able to keep cat 5 VERY long but It will still be deadly!

[otowntiger]

Our local weatherman in Mobile this morning said that the winds should reduce to about 135 mph when it gets to the Miami area. He meant that far up - not that it is going to Miami.

That is a RIDICULOUS statement. Hurricanes DO NOT have any trouble maintaining cat 5 status. The difficulty lies in favorable atmospheric conditions remaining stable for extended periods of times to enable the cat 5 to sustain that intensity for that long. In order for a cat 5 to happen, conditions have to be "just right." What is unusual is for the conditions to remain in place for extended periods of time. But for him to suggest that it will reduce to 135 mph, without explaining why he believes that, is utterly ridiculous.

Why is this ridiculous? The TPC is predicting weakening to about 135 at landfall. The only thing ridiculous about that ascertion would be that the local met didn't give credit to the TPC for already making that prediction. They are the experts afterall.

[rockyman]

When I went to bed last night, the Euro was showing a SE Fla event...

The latest (00z) Euro shows a SW Fla event:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2912!!step

[HouTXmetro]

I'm no expert but areyou guys serious? Is a ridge really building to the NE of IVAN? What about the Ridge thats suppose to build in the Western Gulf? Any explanations will be appreciated.

[canegrl04]

The NHC in one of their recent discussions stated that Ivan will probably be cat 5 AT SOME POINTS,meaning he could be off and on cat 5

Mitch stayed cat 5 for awhile.It is a myth that a hurricane cannot sustain cat 5 status

[rtd2]

Rainband thanks for taking alook ....It very well could pan out On NHC'S track But I cant see how... I think the Models have really crapped out on early runs and ridges...ect.. NHC could be doing a CYA till weekend and things are a little more clear....makes sense just hate to see the media hype start up!

[goodlife]

yeah somebody please explain this stuff...what IS and what IS NOT building....in layman's terms please....I AM a blonde....lol

[skysummit]

I see that also. Maybe they're believing he will turn RIGHT ON the perimeter of the ridge? I dunno....doesn't make much sense to me.

[dhweather]

As ERC's occur, the intensity will vary from four to five. Not many storms can maintain 5 status for more than 24 hours.

[Rainband]

according to the WV it is

[Agua]

How far west is it projected to build (the ridge) and what time frame?

[Guest]

This is sad......three strikes and you're out. This will devastate the economy of Florida for, at least, a year. Tourism will practically halt on such a tourism dependent state until next Summer, IMO. I'm still hoping it turns for these poor people in Florida. This will likely affect the national economy for some time to come with the huge amounts of job losses in Florida. They were talking about this on FoxNews.

Well, the end of the tourist "rush" is Labor Day weekend. So we're officially in off season now here in Florida. At least we're not being hit in the spring or early summer. The hurricane may devestate some industries, but the construction/labor intensive industries have more work than they can handle. To get a roofer, you have a minimum of a 4 week wait here in my area of FL. And the retailers, like Walmart, Home Depot and the grocery chains, are seeing record sales. I'm no economist, but I think it will all level out in the end.

The optimist,
...Jennifer...

[HurricaneGirl]

If there was any time to be scared it's now because Ivan is out of control! I don't see how this storm could be a fish at all!

[skysummit]

How far west is it projected to build (the ridge) and what time frame?

I don't think it was "expected" to build. I think it was "expected" to weeken at some point.....but that's not what it is happening.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I guess they are doing this in anticipation of evac. people north of the keys?