SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

Storms on the West side of Houston have weakened some, but still producing heavy rain and lightning. Looks like more to the west too. We might be getting into a training situation for a while which is not good!! Gonna watch some more before I allow myself to go to sleep.

[JonathanBelles]

NEXRAD is showing a tornado signature NE of Humble.

[TexasSam]

Starting to see some lightning on Ch. 26's camera...
http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

[setxweathergal]

I'm in the Beaumont area...and we've had lots of rain! Does anyone know what it is suppose to do today? Not sure if we can stand another event today like yesterday and last night!

[southerngale]

I'm in the Beaumont area...and we've had lots of rain! Does anyone know what it is suppose to do today? Not sure if we can stand another event today like yesterday and last night!

Want to pitch in with me and get an ark?

Geesh.... we got a ton of rain yesterday and overnight!

[southerngale]

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS..
NECHES RIVER NEAR BEAUMONT
PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE


TXC245-361-131550-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0070.081113T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.1.ER.081113T1500Z.081116T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
750 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE NECHES RIVER NEAR BEAUMONT.
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 5.5 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 4.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF BEAUMONT COUNTRY CLUB AND
COLLIERS FERRY PARK CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO FLOODING IN NORTHWEST
ORNAGE COUNTY SOUTH OF RIVER OAKS TO BUNNS BLUFF CAN BE EXPECTED.
WATER MAY GO OVER FOUR OAKS RANCH ROAD IN NORHWEST ORANGE COUNTY.

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS..
NECHES RIVER NEAR BEAUMONT
PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE


TXC199-245-131549-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SOLT2.1.ER.081112T1256Z.081115T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
750 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:31 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.1 FEET BY
SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cold front hasn't moved far enough offshore, still pretty murky here...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That is a strong low 1009 mb off the texas coast, strong front
must be moving through south texas.

[vbhoutex]

Entire region except the immediate coast expected to dip into mid thirties or lower. Freeze line will be in the Northern and far Western Suburbs of Houston if predictions hold. This should be our first frost tonight which normally occurs December !.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[JonathanBelles]

TORNADO WARNING
LAC115-290030-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0145.081128T2340Z-081129T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES FORT POLK...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 540 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT POLK...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF ROSEPINE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT POLK BY 605 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3112 9313 3095 9305 3091 9347 3094 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 251DEG 29KT 3095 9343

$$

K. KUYPER

[Ed Mahmoud]

Only light rain over the holidays, and models suggest Wednesday afternoon/evenings frontal passage will be dry.

I can wait on the miracle snow, but I would like a slow soaking rain sometime in the next few weeks.

[vbhoutex]

Only light rain over the holidays, and models suggest Wednesday afternoon/evenings frontal passage will be dry.

I can wait on the miracle snow, but I would like a slow soaking rain sometime in the next few weeks.

How about the next few days!!!! Getting dry around here again!! Love the winds today!!NOT!!!! Once again sustained in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph.

[vbhoutex]

Currently looking at 41ºF on the way to a forecast low of 36ºf. May make it or may not depending on when our winds switch back to the SE and start bringing in the moisture and warmer air. Totally clear star gazing weather tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like you guys in SE Texas are in for a cold one tonight!

At 11pm IAH is already down to 37F, Hooks is at 33F, and Conroe is sitting at a freezing 32F.

Further inland, Waco's forecasted low has been shattered. They were projected to hit 35F, but are currently down near 30F.

[KatDaddy]

...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...

AT 200 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM GROVETON TO HUNTSVILLE TO
COLUMBUS. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH...AND WILL PASS
THROUGH A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO HOUSTON TO PALACIOS BETWEEN 3
AND 4 PM. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FREEPORT...GALVESTON...AND
WINNIE AREAS BETWEEN 430 AND 530 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF ABOUT 30 MINUTES AS THE
FRONT PASSES. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THESE WIND GUSTS TO
PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND POWER LINES. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to look as if we may see some Severe Weather in the upcoming weekend period of the New Year. An active Sub Tropical Jet with imbedded disturbances moving from W to E will need to be watched. SPC update this morning...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST THU JAN 01 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY FURTHER THIS PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING EXPANDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WRN HALF OF NOAM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION INCREASE THIS PERIOD...BUT EXPECT A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO SHIFT ESEWD INTO OK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE REDEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY REGION LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS PERIOD COMPLICATE ASSESSMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. THE NAMKF SUGGESTS A
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM -- TO VARYING DEGREES -- DEPICT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION FROM E TX EWD AND NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS -- WITH A CONSISTENTLY STRONGER DEPICTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- REMAINS THE MORE BULLISH
MODEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE...THE NAM STRIKES
SOMEWHAT OF A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAMKF AS IT
MAINTAINS SOME CAPPING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANY EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TEND
TO REMAIN ELEVATED.

ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A RATHER LARGE/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT
AREA...CENTERED OVER E TX/LA. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD EXIST LATER IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY EWD. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN
IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER E
TX...WILL INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE THREAT AREA AS WELL. WHILE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY...THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO APPEARS JUST HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A
SEE TEXT/5% PROBABILITY AREA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

..GOSS.. 01/01/2009

[srainhoutx]

SPC update today...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS DYNAMIC MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
AND GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. A LEAD...LOWER
LATITUDE IMPULSE INITIALLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SHIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS
VALLEYS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE TRACK OF PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW...BUT IN GENERAL...THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN KS
SEWD TOWARD CNTRL OK BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD INTO IL/IND BY
SUNDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE TN INTO OH VALLEY.

...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

02/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A MODIFIED AIR MASS IS ALREADY RETURNING NWD THROUGH SRN/ERN TX
AND LA. THIS PROCESS WILL BE HASTENED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY ONE PERIOD INTO DAY TWO AS A SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER SRN PLAINS
INTO LOWER MS VALLEY. DESPITE INTERVENING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST EML PLUME PRECEDING LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE INCREASING
TO 500-1000 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF ERN
TX...DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD INTO
THE NWRN GULF BASIN. EXPECT TSTMS TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD INTO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS OVER LA/MS. WHILE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG /45-55 KT/...PROXIMITY OF 40-45 KT LLJ WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER PARTS OF W-CNTRL/SWRN AL. HOWEVER...WEAKENING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH TIME SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 01/02/2009

Could get a bit bumpy around here over night tonight and to point E tomorrow. Looks as if Sunday through Tuesday could be mighty wet/stormy around these parts.

12Z 5 day gpf looks interesting...

[southerngale]

Last night, my NWS forecast was: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Some of the storms could be severe. Chance of precipitation 90%. (and discussions about the possibility of severe weather with the storms)

SPC had us in a slight risk. I read several things about ongoing thunderstorms, when they should start, etc.

Wow. Huge bust. Unless I blinked and missed it, not even a drop of light rain, much less anything that resembled real rain or a thunderstorm. I think the models need an upgrade or something... they sure have been way off a lot lately, thus making forecasts way off.

[Tireman4]

Houston Intercontinental Airport
Lat: 29.97 Lon: -95.35 Elev: 95
Last Update on Jan 3, 1:53 pm CST


Partly Cloudy

81°F
(27°C) Humidity: 51 %
Wind Speed: S 17 G 23 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1008.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 61°F (16°C)
Heat Index: 82°F (28°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

And this is WINTER? The record high is 83. Goodness.