TC Bertha

[KWT]

Haha awesome looking foward to the first recon of the season and probably the first of many I guess.

Yep looking good still, center is just in that southern blob of deep convection, starting to wrap relaly nicely now.

Aric, I agree its got to be close if its not there yet, fully closed eyewall and a eye clearly evident.

[txwatcher91]

WOW, that looks like a Cat 1 easily!

[HURAKAN]

If it's not a hurricane, it must be close. Very close.

[DESTRUCTION5]

come on dont sit ther and tell me that is not a minamal hurricane..

Problem is Cane or not it Means nothing to anyone in its current location...

[brunota2003]

So, what type of heading are we talking about right now?

[Aric Dunn]

nice eye should clear out later tonight..

[cpdaman]

from my experience watching tropical systems , the smaller storms (in size) tend to fool forecasters the MOST in intensity, with it being common for a smaller storm to increase (or decrease) top wind speeds quite easily and the smaller the storm the faster it could wrap up, of course i guess if it wraps up faster, it will have a better chance to scoot all the way out when it feels the trough reaching the east coast in 3 days.

not saying it will 'wrap up" or undergo rapid intensification but smaller storms in my memory seem very difficult to forecast intensity with and tend to surprise more than bigger size storms

[Derek Ortt]

probably still 290

[Aric Dunn]

So, what type of heading are we talking about right now?

its been pretty much 275 to 280 since the last advisory..

[tolakram]

From the latest sat pics it appears to have started to slow and turn just a tad north. I'm looking at the atlantic wide so I don't start calling wobbles.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

It does seem like quite a compact system cpdaman so indeed I wouldn't be surprised that if recon go into this system whilst its still looking good it may get higher winds then the estimates show but heck I may be wrong!

Before the sun went down it was heading about 280-285 but I'm not sure about it since then I've not really had a proper look.

[Aric Dunn]

well from the fixes from the last 2 microwave images. its been a 270 movement..

here look ..


new image with the previous position circled.
so a 275 motion since 1950utc

[Aric Dunn]

so for about the last 3 hours from 1945 to 2226 its been heading due west..

[Steve]

Looks like a semi-mature tropical storm to me.

Steve

[tolakram]

Latest sat pic is 23:15.

I could be an illusion if more shear is blowing the convection NE again, time will tell.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030815.jpg

The tracking sat has also picked up on the northward movement.

[Aric Dunn]

from the 805 disscusion

"TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 47.0W AT 2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1700 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT."

[CourierPR]

Thank you, Aric, for the clarification. The storm appeared to be maintaining course after looking at the latest floater loop.

[brunota2003]

18.3N and 45.5W from the 1620Z image (roughly) now 18.7N and 47.5W as of 2226Z.

[Aric Dunn]

looking very nice latest image just came in..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

certainly looks to be gradually making that WNW turn now as she rounds the periphery of the "Azores" ridge.