ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[geomindspin]

This is what I think of every time I look at that west turn. I don't dare speak it's name but some memories are hard to shake.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I also remember Hurricane Betsy taking a similar course to Fort Lauderdale.

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET text Rolling west....note though that it's anlysed initialization point was 24 nm south of 12Z best track.

HURRICANE KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 52.0W


ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122011


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2011 17.0N 52.0W STRONG
00UTC 03.09.2011 18.2N 54.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2011 18.9N 56.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2011 19.1N 57.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2011 19.7N 59.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2011 20.2N 60.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2011 20.7N 62.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2011 21.3N 64.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2011 21.7N 66.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2011 22.1N 68.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2011 22.4N 71.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2011 22.6N 73.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2011 22.5N 75.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[BigA]

That's probably some strong ridging on the UKMET. Goes from 71.2 W to 75.8W with nary a gain in latitude. This is the reason why South Florida cannot be called 100% in the clear.

[jhpigott]

12Z UKMET text Rolling west....note though that it's anlysed initialization point was 24 nm south of 12Z best track.

HURRICANE KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 52.0W


ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122011


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2011 17.0N 52.0W STRONG
00UTC 03.09.2011 18.2N 54.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2011 18.9N 56.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2011 19.1N 57.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2011 19.7N 59.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2011 20.2N 60.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2011 20.7N 62.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2011 21.3N 64.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2011 21.7N 66.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2011 22.1N 68.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2011 22.4N 71.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2011 22.6N 73.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2011 22.5N 75.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

I see the UKMET is sticking to its guns . . .

[Typhoon_Willie]

I agree BigA. We will have to wait and see what happens on down the road here.

[CronkPSU]

what did the Euro say?

[jhpigott]

what did the Euro say?

should be running as we speak . . .

[RICE U PROF]

The only problem is that in baseball you have to make a split decision at the plate. In forecasting these storms at such a long distance, unless your Joe Bastardi, you are wrong just as often as you are right. I give my friend Joe credit on this- he called a strike on the CONUS from the start when Katia this was just coming off Africa as a wave.

Almost everybody (I don't mean this site as I only came across it today) in the business laughed it off, disagreed, or dismissed Katia because of the historical trends. Well those past events didn't have to factor in things like Talos, the remnants of Lee- you all know the drill- I've read some of the posts here and many of you are very knowledgeable and clearly enjoy the science involved.

The bottom line is- with all of the factors involved, possible variations, as well as the slightest changes down the road, as of this moment- Katia is a mystery gal, BUT I'd say it's 50/50 she hits the CONUS- if she gets past 70 and doesn't make that turn- my gut says it's a strike.

[fci]

I also remember Hurricane Betsy taking a similar course to Fort Lauderdale.

FYI, Betsy hit Key Largo, it did not hit Ft Lauderdale.
I hate to admit it, but I remember Betsy and lived in Miami.



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[clfenwi]

12Z Euro at 168h and 192h

[clfenwi]

12Z Euro 216h. North of due east movement after 192h. (disgregard my earlier comment; resizing images while flipping b/t the two gave me the wrong impression)

[gatorcane]

look at that nice ridge that builds in underneath across the entire Atlantic and Caribbean.

Haven't seen that in a while.

[BigJ]

Could you post the 24 and 48 hour euro model?

[clfenwi]

Could you post the 24 and 48 hour euro model?

[BigJ]

Thank you

Need this storm to stay far enough away from St Maarten

[clfenwi]

And finally, 12Z Euro at 240h



Complete loop

[BigB0882]

No waves coming off of Africa in the next 10 days? That is interesting, that strong strong ridge would make them all ones we need to keep an eye on.

[mascpa]

And finally, 12Z Euro at 240h



Complete loop

Wow, that is one heck of a right turn. More than 90 degrees!

[NFLnut]

And finally, 12Z Euro at 240h

Complete loop

Thanks for including the link for the Complete Loop. It always seems to take me forever to get to the right place using the links at the top.