Texas Winter 2012-2013

[gpsnowman]

Is it me or did the rain in North Texas turn out to be a major bust? Just enough to get the streets wet here in Grand Prairie. And looking at the radar it is just about done.

[wxman57]

I'm headed to Austin in a few hours to ring in the new years with some friends. Hopefully we dont get dumped on!

You won't get "dumped on", but you'll have steady light rain and temps around 60 deg late evening. See below:

[Comanche]

What can we expect from the strato-warming event?

[Texas Snowman]

Is it me or did the rain in North Texas turn out to be a major bust? Just enough to get the streets wet here in Grand Prairie. And looking at the radar it is just about done.

Yeah, not the drought-denter that I was hoping for...

[Ntxw]

Yeah doesn't look like much rain here, warm front couldn't make it north. The thunderstorms will fire to our south along it but too late for us. Another cold drizzly day ontap

[NDG]

What can we expect from the strato-warming event?

I remember last year the same talk about the GFS forecasting strato-warming in the Arctic in its long range forecast with nothing much coming out of it at the end. Long range forecast is still a long range forecast that is not guaranteed to be accurate, IMO.

[Ntxw]

Fortunately for us this is not last year! The warming event has already begun to take place, we just have to wait and see if blocking returns as a result from it once it is complete so technically it is not long range

Last year's warming event if you remember gave us texans that feb cold snap. If not for it we would've had our first ever snowless winter.

[dhweather]

Is it me or did the rain in North Texas turn out to be a major bust? Just enough to get the streets wet here in Grand Prairie. And looking at the radar it is just about done.

Yep, it's a bust. I got a whopping .01 measurable precip. I had hopes this system would help a lot of people out.

[Ntxw]

Since we were talking about SSW, you guys might wonder what does it look like? They all begin in Asia and move to the pole very quickly. I shared this with Porta but figured it's cool enough to post



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Warning graphic may slow you down!

[gboudx]

Is it me or did the rain in North Texas turn out to be a major bust? Just enough to get the streets wet here in Grand Prairie. And looking at the radar it is just about done.

Yep, it's a bust. I got a whopping .01 measurable precip. I had hopes this system would help a lot of people out.

It still raining out this way though. Give it time.

[Portastorm]

What can we expect from the strato-warming event?

I remember last year the same talk about the GFS forecasting strato-warming in the Arctic in its long range forecast with nothing much coming out of it at the end. Long range forecast is still a long range forecast that is not guaranteed to be accurate, IMO.

We speak here on S2K about very complex aspects of the weather (like sudden stratospheric warming events, SSW) in broadbrush terms. Truth is, there are different types of SSW. Top-down, bottom-up, etc. Last year the SSW did have a significant impact but it was on the other side of the globe. When these things happen they do ultimately impact some areas of the northern hemisphere about 2-3 weeks after they occur. Whether it is this side of the globe, or somewhere else, remains to be seen. SSW and the displacement or "splitting" of the polar vortex are connected. If a piece of that vortex or most of it ends up in Canada, then you get more excited about an Arctic outbreak in the lower 48.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What can we expect from the strato-warming event?

I remember last year the same talk about the GFS forecasting strato-warming in the Arctic in its long range forecast with nothing much coming out of it at the end. Long range forecast is still a long range forecast that is not guaranteed to be accurate, IMO.

We speak here on S2K about very complex aspects of the weather (like sudden stratospheric warming events, SSW) in broadbrush terms. Truth is, there are different types of SSW. Top-down, bottom-up, etc. Last year the SSW did have a significant impact but it was on the other side of the globe. When these things happen they do ultimately impact some areas of the northern hemisphere about 2-3 weeks after they occur. Whether it is this side of the globe, or somewhere else, remains to be seen. SSW and the displacement or "splitting" of the polar vortex are connected. If a piece of that vortex or most of it ends up in Canada, then you get more excited about an Arctic outbreak in the lower 48.

You sure do know how to burst my bubble.

in two to three weeks time we are normally facing the coldest part of our winter and you are excited about nastiness coming (over my head btw ).

*sigh*

You fellows are beyond evil.

[Portastorm]

Screamer, I didn't indicate any "excitement" as I have no clue right now if this SSW will impact North America in a big way or not. It may not. So don't get too discouraged. Yet.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

well your excitement may not have been expressed with all over the board but I know you fellows well enough that it is building internally.

Please Lord send it elsewhere!!! the -40's and -50's are something (and those days it seems I often end up walking....though I just remembered my vehicles battery has acted up the few times I've driven it this winter so I'll thank you for the heads-up and will purchase a new one this week).

[Longhornmaniac8]

So is there nothing to discuss with the models today?

Also, aside from the PSU site, where do you go to look at the model output data?

Cheers,
Cameron

[vbhoutex]

So is there nothing to discuss with the models today?

Also, aside from the PSU site, where do you go to look at the model output data?

Cheers,
Cameron

Go to the top of the page and click on the MODEL SITES button for a drop down of different model sites to use.

[Portastorm]

So is there nothing to discuss with the models today?

Also, aside from the PSU site, where do you go to look at the model output data?

Cheers,
Cameron

The European and UKMet, along with the SREF ensemble mean, continue to suggest that enough moisture and low-level cold air will be in place for some wintry precipitation in west, southwest, and west-central Texas. I'm not all that confident at this point of anything too exciting happening in south central or south Texas with this system. Gonna continue to monitor the model trends and satellite out west. FYI, the GFS and CMC have nothing of excitement for this week.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS still hinting at the idea of some Snow for South Texas..On Thursday Night Friday Morning..





EDIT: 12zECMWF has Snow in the same area as the GFS (Webb County Laredo area).....Also has snow just west of San Antonio around the Uvalde area come Thursday Night and Friday Morning..

[ndale]

Rgv20 if anyone feels the effects of this system I think it may be you. The models keep coming back to Texas/Mexico along the Rio Grande with any activity. I guess we have to just wait to see if anything happens, how much and how widespread.

[GaryHughes]

Yeah doesn't look like much rain here, warm front couldn't make it north. The thunderstorms will fire to our south along it but too late for us. Another cold drizzly day ontap

I don't have my rain gauge hooked up, but I had a good soaking I have mud and standing water.