ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Florida1118]

The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What's important to note though is two things. The ukmet opens E into a wave and also now the nhc are calling for him to be a hurricane south if Jamaica which is a lot earlier than last advisory. Northward shifts will come with time once the models figure out E is not going to die but rather strengthen steadily.

[jinftl]

For sure the uncertain, esp 3-5 days out and beyond is huge...but one thing hasn't happened in the last day is Ernesto really gaining much latitude. Because of this Jamaica is now out of the forecast cone at 5am because it looks like the core will move south of the island (ts conditions certainly possible though). No sign of a wnw motion which alot of the models are saying really should start soon...the heading has been 275 for a day now and he is moving 18 mph. The models that maintain a more westerly heading, show Ernesto moving into the Yucatan or even Belize.

:uarrow: The problem is, the models still are initializing correctly; the GFS and Euro have it as a weak low/wave when its a 60mph TS. It seems like very few models are understand that Ernesto is a strong TS and not a weak system...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Pretty much had to cause the models are saying so unless the nhc 100% disregards them. Most importantly as he said all the models calling for a Yucatan hit are showing E as a weak system at most and definitely not a hurricane south if Jamaica. Just have to believe once the models figure out there is going to be a hurricane out there they will shift north.Cause the weakness will be there.

[Stormlover2012]

mike u really think the models will shift back north?

[jinftl]

NHC leaves the door open for further shift south...

THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

On a side note, with so many days to watch this storm, the south trend we are seeing will probably flip flop back north and then south etc MANY times in the next week! Nothing is a done deal and no one in the Gulf is in the clear.

mike u really think the models will shift back north?

[Nimbus]

Rather than flipping the models back and forth like a windshield wiper it would make sense that they might hinge the track shift back to the right on the intensity forecast verification.

If a hurricane south of Jamaica verifies and the forward speed starts to diminish then they will need to swing their track up into the gulf and forecast a northern gulf coast landfall based on the more accurate upper air environment forecast at that time.

[northjaxpro]

If Ernesto is a strengthening hurricane by the time he reaches the NW Caribbean around the Yucatan Channel, the cyclone would indeed get pulled into the weakness which is forecast over the GOM later in the period. Everyone on the Gulf coast from Mississippi down to Mexico really needs to be vigilant over the next week. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

I wish AFM was around. He'd know what to do. But seriously, where's he been? Hopefully not run off...

He is gone for long periods but where is Seniorperp? There are others but after this last July it will take a while to get them back.

What's important to note though is two things. The ukmet opens E into a wave and also now the nhc are calling for him to be a hurricane south if Jamaica which is a lot earlier than last advisory. Northward shifts will come with time once the models figure out E is not going to die but rather strengthen steadily.

Pretty much my thinking, I'm not a fan of the latest NHC south shift but their hand was forced so to speak. Them forecasting Ernesto to become a hurricane a lot eariler is no surprise and is a good change.

Latest:



Ernesto looking amazing. Wouldn't it be funny if that white ring of deep convection was the eyewall building . I know its a burst of convection per the loops but on two different scans it was there like that *cue suspenseful music*. The difference 18 hours makes was huge.

[northjaxpro]

I think Ernesto, in terms of satellite presentation, is looking the best he has its entire lifespan to this point. Impressive convective tops are firing around the center now and I would not be surprised to see this be near hurricane strength even right now. I think conditions have increasingly become more conducive for intensification for Ernesto and that is not good for our friends down in the Caribbean. I am fearful that Ernesto may become a very potent tropical cyclone by the time he reaches the NW Caribbean in the next 72 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon headed out!

000
URNT15 KNHC 041034
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 04 20120804
102530 1730N 06458W 6686 03536 0102 +068 +063 127026 029 031 001 00
102600 1729N 06500W 6522 03741 0109 +050 +050 126024 025 031 002 01
102630 1728N 06502W 6368 03932 0110 +040 +040 123024 026 032 001 01
102700 1727N 06503W 6229 04116 0090 +030 +030 112027 027 030 001 01
102730 1726N 06505W 6094 04292 0086 +030 +030 102027 027 031 000 01
102800 1724N 06507W 5961 04464 0083 +020 +020 093028 029 032 001 01
102830 1723N 06509W 5854 04613 0081 +010 +010 083031 032 032 000 01
102900 1722N 06511W 5726 04786 0072 +000 +000 087034 035 031 001 01
102930 1721N 06513W 5609 04953 0067 +000 +000 091036 037 031 000 05
103000 1720N 06515W 5450 05178 0247 +000 +000 099026 034 030 001 01
103030 1718N 06516W 5329 05363 0261 -010 -010 098022 023 030 000 01
103100 1717N 06518W 5229 05512 0269 -037 //// 094021 023 029 001 01
103130 1716N 06520W 5131 05659 0277 -048 //// 087019 022 031 000 01
103200 1715N 06522W 5042 05798 0288 -056 //// 073018 019 031 000 01
103230 1714N 06524W 4995 05876 0297 -060 //// 062017 018 029 001 01
103300 1712N 06526W 4998 05875 0299 -040 -040 059019 020 029 000 01
103330 1711N 06528W 4995 05881 0300 -050 -050 059020 021 030 001 01
103400 1710N 06530W 4996 05879 0301 -050 -050 064020 020 028 001 01
103430 1709N 06531W 4996 05878 0300 -050 -050 064022 023 028 001 01
103500 1707N 06533W 4998 05877 0299 -050 -050 065024 024 032 000 01
$$
;

[Gustywind]

Here is a recap of Ernesto's passage on Martinica. Looks like Ernesto has not bring significant damages in the Lesser Antilles especially the Windwards islands, that's very good news ... even if in Martinica i heard that a man was died electocute. Condoleance to the family.
Staying in Martinica (who backoff the yellow alert, back to green code ), here is a recap of Ernesto ( see below ): http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf (french version ).

Balance sheet/Encrypted datas: The passage of Ernesto on the Martinque brang rainfall of 30 to 50 mm. These are modest values for a tropical storm. So it did not had reactionwater.The winds were more dangerous, with winds gusting to 80 km/h in plain, locally more than 110 km/h in the mountains and on the Atlantic coast. At sea measured average lows reached 3 m and the hollow maxi 5 m.
Comments/Consequences: Ernesto crossed Martinica with moderate effects.

[JamesCaneTracker]

[JamesCaneTracker]

I'll start doing the images once they are down to operational altitude... If some one would like to do the images then by all means take over them!

000
URNT15 KNHC 041044
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 05 20120804
103530 1706N 06535W 4996 05877 0299 -050 -050 062026 027 030 002 01
103600 1705N 06538W 4994 05878 0297 -050 -050 060027 028 030 005 01
103630 1704N 06539W 5005 05856 0292 -050 -050 060032 033 030 008 01
103700 1702N 06541W 4997 05870 0292 -050 -050 064033 034 028 001 01
103730 1701N 06543W 5000 05864 0292 -050 -050 085034 037 028 002 01
103800 1700N 06545W 4998 05868 0292 -053 -057 068029 032 029 002 00
103830 1658N 06547W 4998 05867 0291 -058 -058 073033 034 029 001 00
103900 1657N 06549W 4994 05872 0291 -057 -059 079036 038 030 001 00
103930 1656N 06551W 4997 05870 0291 -058 -059 079038 039 031 001 00
104000 1654N 06553W 4999 05866 0292 -050 -050 080038 042 032 001 01
104030 1653N 06555W 4997 05870 0292 -058 -059 084037 039 032 002 00
104100 1652N 06557W 4998 05871 0295 -058 -061 077026 035 032 002 00
104130 1651N 06559W 4995 05874 0295 -060 -060 071032 034 032 002 01
104200 1649N 06601W 4998 05868 0293 -050 -050 086036 038 033 002 01
104230 1648N 06603W 5005 05861 0294 -050 -050 070030 036 031 003 01
104300 1647N 06605W 4999 05867 0292 -050 -050 065032 034 033 003 01
104330 1645N 06607W 4994 05877 0293 -050 -050 080037 040 034 004 01
104400 1644N 06609W 4998 05872 0294 -055 -056 072031 035 033 002 00
104430 1643N 06611W 4999 05868 0294 -055 -057 077030 031 033 001 00
104500 1641N 06613W 4997 05871 0302 -052 -059 063031 033 034 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Ernesto looking better at the same spot all the models lose it. What in the world is going on with all the models killing off Ernesto?

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041054
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120804
104530 1640N 06615W 4995 05887 0306 -051 -058 062035 037 034 000 00
104600 1639N 06617W 4995 05887 0307 -053 -058 066033 034 033 000 00
104630 1638N 06619W 4998 05883 0307 -053 -057 068031 032 034 001 00
104700 1636N 06621W 4997 05886 0308 -050 -059 069031 033 034 000 00
104730 1635N 06623W 4992 05893 0307 -057 -057 068029 029 035 000 00
104800 1634N 06625W 4996 05884 0307 -050 -050 072030 033 034 000 01
104830 1632N 06627W 4995 05885 0306 -057 -057 070032 033 034 001 00
104900 1631N 06629W 4994 05889 0306 -055 -058 072033 033 034 000 00
104930 1630N 06631W 4998 05883 0307 -053 -059 072031 033 034 001 00
105000 1628N 06633W 4994 05889 0307 -051 -059 074032 033 034 001 00
105030 1627N 06635W 5000 05878 0305 -050 -058 068029 032 034 001 00
105100 1626N 06636W 4994 05889 0306 -050 -057 073030 030 035 001 00
105130 1624N 06638W 4996 05884 0305 -050 -057 075028 030 036 001 00
105200 1623N 06640W 4996 05885 0306 -050 -058 075027 028 035 000 00
105230 1622N 06642W 4996 05888 0307 -048 -058 073028 028 036 000 00
105300 1621N 06644W 4992 05890 0306 -048 -059 073029 029 036 001 00
105330 1619N 06646W 5000 05879 0306 -045 -060 074029 030 036 000 00
105400 1618N 06648W 5050 05811 0310 -042 -060 077029 030 036 000 00
105430 1617N 06650W 5206 05573 0298 -032 -058 083029 031 036 000 00
105500 1615N 06652W 5372 05326 0284 -019 -052 080032 033 035 000 00
$$
;

[Nederlander]

Sorry, couldn't upload because I am on my phone but here's the first vis image, very impressive:

[jinftl]

Who's killing off Ernresto? 0600z runs starting to look scary in terms of intensity. The southern tracks just keep the storm too far south to feel the weakness...but they don't keep ernesto weak

Ernesto looking better at the same spot all the models lose it. What in the world is going on with all the models killing off Ernesto?

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[JamesCaneTracker]

Down to Operational Altitude!

000
URNT15 KNHC 041104
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 07 20120804
105530 1614N 06654W 5549 05066 0090 -005 -046 070035 036 035 000 00
105600 1613N 06656W 5731 04806 0096 +008 -038 072035 036 034 001 00
105630 1612N 06658W 5911 04556 0092 +025 -032 080036 037 034 000 00
105700 1610N 06700W 6091 04320 0105 +036 -024 085035 036 035 000 00
105730 1609N 06702W 6207 04154 0099 +045 -017 092033 035 035 000 00
105800 1608N 06703W 6245 04101 0096 +045 -011 089031 033 036 001 00
105830 1607N 06705W 6245 04099 0095 +045 -008 089031 032 038 001 00
105900 1606N 06707W 6373 03943 0110 +052 -004 086037 038 039 005 00
105930 1605N 06709W 6577 03682 0110 +067 +002 091035 038 034 001 00
110000 1603N 06711W 6788 03421 0117 +079 +009 088033 035 033 001 00
110030 1602N 06712W 6995 03170 0120 +090 +017 093030 032 035 000 00
110100 1601N 06714W 7200 02930 0122 +103 +025 098030 031 035 001 00
110130 1600N 06716W 7411 02687 0121 +118 +033 100034 035 036 001 00
110200 1558N 06718W 7641 02429 0124 +129 +040 101034 036 037 001 00
110230 1557N 06719W 7852 02200 0129 +138 +048 105033 034 037 001 00
110300 1556N 06721W 8076 01960 0130 +152 +054 106035 037 035 001 00
110330 1555N 06723W 8322 01705 0130 +164 +059 108037 037 036 000 00
110400 1554N 06724W 8429 01584 0119 +170 +065 110036 036 035 001 00
110430 1553N 06726W 8430 01581 0115 +171 +068 111036 036 035 001 00
110500 1552N 06727W 8429 01582 0114 +170 +072 111037 038 036 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]