ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SFLcane]

CMC Ensembles

[chaser1]

GFDL track...

http://i67.tinypic.com/2rzv1br.png

I'm trying to remember the last time I looked at the GFDL for track guidance............. YET, it's the one that seems to make a bit more sense.

[chris_fit]

Any Florida hit might have to wait about 2 weeks (about the time I'm there). Nothing to indicate an initial track to the Peninsula. Maybe if it's blocked near the Bahamas in 8-10 days then gets shoved west. Matthew may rack up more than half the season's ACE points.

Loop? Jeanne?

[chaser1]

CMC Ensembles

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

OH JEEZ!!!????? That's definitely the last straw. My brain hurts. Euro & GFS "east" and CMC "west" to W. Cuba and then S. Florida Haiti, watch out.

[Steve]

Wow, when was the last time Bastardi agreeded with JMA?

He loves the JMA especially the longer term seasonal products.

[drezee]

I do not like the SW sag of the pressure field. Euro corrects toward that pressure field in the past. I would expect another SW shift for 0z.

It did make the shift from 12z. I think it has a better handle now.

Hey everyone, this is not our first rodeo! We have seen this multiple times this year. I quoted from Monday to remind you. The European is not perfect. It has a tendency to create sag fields in the direction of the correction on the 12z run due to smoothing fields and dynamics. The correction on the 0z will be SW again. Mark my words...learn from the past and model biases

[chris_fit]

Great Post on FB from Bryan Norcross...

Ready, Set, Matthew

Tropical Storm Matthew will bring gusting winds – some over 60 mph – through the eastern Caribbean Islands today as the system speeds to the west. It looks like the strongest winds and heaviest rain will be between Guadeloupe and St. Lucia. It will move on by tomorrow into the Caribbean Sea, and then things get complicated.

There is general agreement between our two main computer models – the Euro and the U.S. GFS – that Matthew will form and slowly strengthen as it continues west for the rest of the week. The upper-air pattern, which is moderately unfavorable for organization and strengthening now, is forecast to become increasingly favorable over the next few days. The system’s close proximity to the South American coast might slow it down a bit as dry air off the land is pulled into the circulation, and likely other factors will keep it from getting super strong right away. But there is good consensus that Tropical Storm or Hurricane Matthew will be in the southern Caribbean well south or southeast of Jamaica on Saturday.

That’s when things get very fuzzy.

You can think of this like pool. Imagine the storm is the cue ball. When you break, the slightest difference in the angle or power of your shot, where it hits the rack of numbered balls, how tightly the balls are packed, and any number of other factors changes where the cue ball ends up.

In the case of Matthew, exactly how fast it is moving and how strong it is are a couple of the big unknowns that will affect how it interacts with the steering flow to the north, not the mention exactly what the nature of that flow is. The odds of a sharp turn north into the Dominican Republic or Haiti versus a later or more gradual turn into Cuba or the Gulf are both possible and appear about equally likely at this point. It is even possible that it continues west into Mexico or Belize, if it stays weak longer.

No matter what the computer models seem to say, it is foolish to think too hard about how all of the pool balls are going to collide with each other so we can predict exactly whether the cue ball ends up to the right, left, or in the center. The answer is unknowable.

Computer-model forecasts more than a few days in the future for systems that have not yet developed are for amusement and awareness only. They remind us that hurricane season is still in full swing. From the Gulf coast through Florida and up the East Coast, vigilance and readiness are required.

It is hard not to look at the model forecasts for next week and worry and wonder. But it is wasted energy. Use that energy for a trip to the store for batteries. You can always use them, and if suddenly everybody else gets the idea they need batteries too, you will feel pretty smart when the stores run out. And maybe pick up the other hurricane stuff while you are out.

[emeraldislenc]

This is so confusing. I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens. Geez!!!

[AutoPenalti]

Bernie Rayno has a video explaining why he thinks the GFS is wrong and the GOM is still on the table

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true

So far he isn't wrong in that initial motion is set at 18 knots, which is what he said that if it's faster it will move north quicker. However, the same can't be said about it slowing down, it hasn't done so in the past 24 hours.

[wxman57]

I certainly agree with those Canadian ensembles - somewhere between Veracruz, MX and east of Newfoundland. Yep, looks good...

[ColdMiser123]

12z EPS with the mean SLP into the GOM at 228 once again. Actually shifted a tad west compared to 0z.

[AutoPenalti]

CMC Ensembles

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

O'Canada!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/781228741368225793

[Bocadude85]

18z NAM much farther southwest so far..I know the NAM is not a tropical forecasting model,but I have noticed in the past that when it shifts south and west to some degree the GFS does as well.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016092818&fh=3

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781228951431766016

[northjaxpro]

Any Florida hit might have to wait about 2 weeks (about the time I'm there). Nothing to indicate an initial track to the Peninsula. Maybe if it's blocked near the Bahamas in 8-10 days then gets shoved west. Matthew may rack up more than half the season's ACE points.

A potential blocking scenario in the vicinity of the Bahamas would likely be the best opportunity for Matthew to possibly have effects either towards or along the Florida East Coast, that is if that scenario were to manifest.

Still a long ways to go. Everyone along the U.S. East Coast still must keep vigilant for sure.

[sma10]

12z EPS with the mean SLP into the GOM at 228 once again. Actually shifted a tad west compared to 0z.

So a question for the Pros: how is this information digested and interpreted by forecasters? (When the Operational Euro looks to be meandering easterly thru the Bahamas, but the ensemble mean tells what seems to be a different story?)

[cajungal]

I don't see any dynamics that will drive this into the Gulf. Unless something really weird happens. I think all the ensembles still showing gulf will shift east.

[Hurricaneman]

12z EPS with the mean SLP into the GOM at 228 once again. Actually shifted a tad west compared to 0z.

So a question for the Pros: how is this information digested and interpreted by forecasters? (When the Operational Euro looks to be meandering easterly thru the Bahamas, but the ensemble mean tells what seems to be a different story?)

Looks like after day 4 its throw darts and that's where it will go

[Blown Away]

Decent consensus here...