All is weird this season.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562832516293111811
2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:All is weird this season.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562832516293111811
That is why I don't buy all the talk that 2022 is going to go down as a "bust" season. I think it's going to go down as a "bizarro" season.
I think the Atl/Carib is going to show us some weird stuff in Sep/Oct
3 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
sma10 wrote:cycloneye wrote:All is weird this season.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562832516293111811
That is why I don't buy all the talk that 2022 is going to go down as a "bust" season. I think it's going to go down as a "bizarro" season.
I think the Atl/Carib is going to show us some weird stuff in Sep/Oct
What do you mean when you say weird stuff?
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The long range 12z GFS features a Hurricane from a non-tropical origin, that would be interesting to watch if it was the case.
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:sma10 wrote:cycloneye wrote:All is weird this season.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562832516293111811
That is why I don't buy all the talk that 2022 is going to go down as a "bust" season. I think it's going to go down as a "bizarro" season.
I think the Atl/Carib is going to show us some weird stuff in Sep/Oct
What do you mean when you say weird stuff?
Maybe a category 4 or 5 forming in the Caribbean and going up along the entire eastcoast. I mean half inland, not just off the coast.
1 likes
-
skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2728
- Age: 35
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Euro doing something very similar to what ICON and GFS were doing, consolidating all the waves into a giant sloppy system
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Going by the Euro it keeps August dead, but things form literally on the 1st of September.
0 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:sma10 wrote:cycloneye wrote:All is weird this season.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562832516293111811
That is why I don't buy all the talk that 2022 is going to go down as a "bust" season. I think it's going to go down as a "bizarro" season.
I think the Atl/Carib is going to show us some weird stuff in Sep/Oct
What do you mean when you say weird stuff?
Perhaps some odd or rare tracks. The atmosphere this season has been unusual so it would make sense that we might see something unusual storm-wise
1 likes
-
Spacecoast
- Category 2
- Posts: 758
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12z ECENS Genesis: I count 4 MDR systems, a Yucatan system, and a EC system....
1 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I am curious about the abundant moisture I see on satellite, occurring over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Are there any models depicting any type of formation in the Gulf? I apologize if my question is posted in the wrong thread, I was not sure where to post it. Thankyou for any replies!
2 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Don't think I've seen the EPS that active since last year
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Watch the EPS drop all four systems in a few days and push the switch flip back another week.
11 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:
Watch the EPS drop all four systems in a few days and push the switch flip back another week.
EPS development before was all 7+ days out.
That said, if we end up with anything remotely close to the GFS run, with the monsoon trough jetting deep into the Atlantic at 22N, some questions really need to be asked if this is some kind of new normal that the last few years have been trending towards.
3 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2728
- Age: 35
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hammy wrote:aspen wrote:
Watch the EPS drop all four systems in a few days and push the switch flip back another week.
EPS development before was all 7+ days out.
That said, if we end up with anything remotely close to the GFS run, with the monsoon trough jetting deep into the Atlantic at 22N, some questions really need to be asked if this is some kind of new normal that the last few years have been trending towards.
https://i.imgur.com/exM9snS.png
The operational run itself for the Euro had several broad circulations but nothing similar to what the EPS suggests which is why I am slightly skeptical of the ensembles as well. Both the ECMWF and the GFS show broad systems without any significant development.
0 likes
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Hammy wrote:aspen wrote:Watch the EPS drop all four systems in a few days and push the switch flip back another week.
EPS development before was all 7+ days out.
That said, if we end up with anything remotely close to the GFS run, with the monsoon trough jetting deep into the Atlantic at 22N, some questions really need to be asked if this is some kind of new normal that the last few years have been trending towards.
https://i.imgur.com/exM9snS.png
The operational run itself for the Euro had several broad circulations but nothing similar to what the EPS suggests which is why I am slightly skeptical of the ensembles as well. Both the ECMWF and the GFS show broad systems without any significant development.
https://i.imgur.com/kj86Iw1.png
The weakness of the systems in the OP Euro isn’t a red flag to me because it doesn’t often show hurricane-strength systems, unless the system has already formed (although that’s not a guarantee either). If the OP Euro does produce a hurricane within a week, that might be a decent sign that chances for development are higher.
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
jaguars_22
- Category 2
- Posts: 591
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
- Location: Victoria TX
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Some models are showing another low coming out of Campeche into Texas Sunday?
0 likes
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
UKIE for next wave off Africa
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
MHC Tracking
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 195
- Joined: Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:05 am
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hammy wrote:
Don't think I've seen the EPS that active since last year
0 likes
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 12z GFS went absolutely ballistic! And it's not even happy hour yet!
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, Cdenton12, quaqualita and 42 guests