Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-- Andy-
TT-SEA
Snow_Wizzard...
Yes. 850mb temperatures are as low as January. But its the middle of February and instead of struggling to get above freezing we will be close to 50 degrees. Big difference due to sun angle... pure and simple.
Unfortunately for you... today and tomorrow are as cold as it gets this time around. The highs today were in the mid to upper 40's. By Tuesday we have warming 850mb temperatures and offshore flow to keep an inversion to a minimum... so no lingering fog!!
I will say this one more time for the record.
A frosty morning in the upper 20's followed by a sunny afternoon in the upper 40's or low 50's is not real winter weather. Its not. How come you don't understand that?? Everyone else (except a 16 year-old in Bellingham) understands that.
Just answering your question with a question.
Yes. 850mb temperatures are as low as January. But its the middle of February and instead of struggling to get above freezing we will be close to 50 degrees. Big difference due to sun angle... pure and simple.
Unfortunately for you... today and tomorrow are as cold as it gets this time around. The highs today were in the mid to upper 40's. By Tuesday we have warming 850mb temperatures and offshore flow to keep an inversion to a minimum... so no lingering fog!!
I will say this one more time for the record.
A frosty morning in the upper 20's followed by a sunny afternoon in the upper 40's or low 50's is not real winter weather. Its not. How come you don't understand that?? Everyone else (except a 16 year-old in Bellingham) understands that.
Just answering your question with a question.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
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TT-SEA
Western Washington does not really have true winter very often.
We almost had winter for one week in January. Places north of Seattle did pretty well.
We have a lingering autumn and then it slowly becomes an early spring.
Every so often the pattern goes crazy and we have true winter for a long period of time here.
We almost had winter for one week in January. Places north of Seattle did pretty well.
We have a lingering autumn and then it slowly becomes an early spring.
Every so often the pattern goes crazy and we have true winter for a long period of time here.
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TT-SEA
Yep... normal February in Seattle is spring-like.
Go visit some other climates to see what a winter-like landscape in February looks like.
The landscape in Seattle right now looks like:
Minnesota at the end of April.
Michigan at the end of April.
Illinois in the middle of April.
New York state in the middle of April.
Washington DC at the end of March.
You need to move. Plan now for college in Oswego, NY or Duluth, MN. You live in a very mild climate and this is in direct opposition to your unbelievable obsession with arctic cold.
Go visit some other climates to see what a winter-like landscape in February looks like.
The landscape in Seattle right now looks like:
Minnesota at the end of April.
Michigan at the end of April.
Illinois in the middle of April.
New York state in the middle of April.
Washington DC at the end of March.
You need to move. Plan now for college in Oswego, NY or Duluth, MN. You live in a very mild climate and this is in direct opposition to your unbelievable obsession with arctic cold.
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
I whole heartedly agree with TT on the dew point issue. The dew point cannot be higher than the temp because the air the air cannot go beyond being totally saturated. If your temp is 33.8 and the dew point is 33.8 that equals 100% humdity. A dew point of 33 would be about 98%. If the dew point were 34 that would equal about 101% humdity. Not possible.
Brennan is correct too. Upper 40s highs and upper 20s lows equals upper 30s for a mean temp, which is normal for January. Another thing that really bothers me about calling this spring is that the structure of the atmosphere is just not right for that. It is extremely rare to see the types of blocks and buckles in the jetstream in the spring that we are seeing now. In the spring you would have a much more traditional ridge, trough, ridge pattern. Right now we have omegas, rex blocks (high over low), deformation zones, and just about anything else you can imagine. A very wintry structure.
On another note... we are once again going through a negative PNA period. There is no doubt if we continue to see such profoundly negative PNA averages, the real cold will come. It is beyond astounding that we have yet to really to hit the pay station during one of these negative events. It will be awsome when we finally do! It may be no more than a lag time from entering the running minus average to when the cold really sets in. Just think if we can get stuck in cold period as tenacious as the warm has been for the last 25+ years! I think when the change to our cold regime comes it will be without warning. If the PNA is indeed the key, that change should come very soon.
In the past two years we have only had two or three months average colder than normal. Just think how astounding that is! I have said a million times that anybody who has lived here for only 10 or 15 years has a completely fairy tale idea of what the weather is really like around here. It will be so fun to see the day that we go back to the real stuff!
Brennan is correct too. Upper 40s highs and upper 20s lows equals upper 30s for a mean temp, which is normal for January. Another thing that really bothers me about calling this spring is that the structure of the atmosphere is just not right for that. It is extremely rare to see the types of blocks and buckles in the jetstream in the spring that we are seeing now. In the spring you would have a much more traditional ridge, trough, ridge pattern. Right now we have omegas, rex blocks (high over low), deformation zones, and just about anything else you can imagine. A very wintry structure.
On another note... we are once again going through a negative PNA period. There is no doubt if we continue to see such profoundly negative PNA averages, the real cold will come. It is beyond astounding that we have yet to really to hit the pay station during one of these negative events. It will be awsome when we finally do! It may be no more than a lag time from entering the running minus average to when the cold really sets in. Just think if we can get stuck in cold period as tenacious as the warm has been for the last 25+ years! I think when the change to our cold regime comes it will be without warning. If the PNA is indeed the key, that change should come very soon.
In the past two years we have only had two or three months average colder than normal. Just think how astounding that is! I have said a million times that anybody who has lived here for only 10 or 15 years has a completely fairy tale idea of what the weather is really like around here. It will be so fun to see the day that we go back to the real stuff!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...When you say we do not have real winter very often, you are forgetting the Palmer records. An average of 52 inches of snow per winter from 1930 - 1980. It would be more correct to say that we have not gotten real winter very oftem for the past 25 years or so. We can only hope the cycle is about to shift back.
Those Palmer records make chills run down my spine every time I look at them...SO much snow! Most major US cities do not even come close to a 52 inch average. Not even places like Boston!
Your advice to Brennan is something I have considered many times. The problem is, it's just too easy in those places. It would be kind of boring to see it all of the time. I prefer the torture of waiting it out here. Believe you me, I have had times that I have had comlete hissy fits over our weather. Oddly enough, I feel good about certain aspects of this winter. Even though I have not seen much snow, there is something different about it. Different has to be good from the crap we have had since 1975. Since 75 we have had a few good ones to keep me going. If we were to get Arctic cold all of the time here, I would not mind that at all. That would be oh so special!
Those Palmer records make chills run down my spine every time I look at them...SO much snow! Most major US cities do not even come close to a 52 inch average. Not even places like Boston!
Your advice to Brennan is something I have considered many times. The problem is, it's just too easy in those places. It would be kind of boring to see it all of the time. I prefer the torture of waiting it out here. Believe you me, I have had times that I have had comlete hissy fits over our weather. Oddly enough, I feel good about certain aspects of this winter. Even though I have not seen much snow, there is something different about it. Different has to be good from the crap we have had since 1975. Since 75 we have had a few good ones to keep me going. If we were to get Arctic cold all of the time here, I would not mind that at all. That would be oh so special!
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
Snow_Wizzard...
The pattern is pretty crazy. I will give you that.
The later frames of the GFS show an impossibly amplified high all the way to the arctic. It places us in the warm sector but it looks highly unstable and would have to collapse in some strange manner. I just think the GFS is out to lunch. In general... the GFS model gets worse in the spring due to transition issues.
I think the East Coast is going to be slammed again. Our turn comes in about 2 or 3 weeks (according to my theory). Probably with lots of rain and tons of mountain snow.
This week will be close to normal... slightly below at the start and slightly above at the end.
The pattern is pretty crazy. I will give you that.
The later frames of the GFS show an impossibly amplified high all the way to the arctic. It places us in the warm sector but it looks highly unstable and would have to collapse in some strange manner. I just think the GFS is out to lunch. In general... the GFS model gets worse in the spring due to transition issues.
I think the East Coast is going to be slammed again. Our turn comes in about 2 or 3 weeks (according to my theory). Probably with lots of rain and tons of mountain snow.
This week will be close to normal... slightly below at the start and slightly above at the end.
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