Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#2021 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:22 pm

Her northern eyewall is looking great.

nequad · #2022 Postby **nequad** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:23 pm

Yes, but if you take an objective look, the southern eye wall is not really impressive at all.

#2023 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:25 pm

nequad wrote:Yes, but if you take an objective look, the southern eye wall is not really impressive at all.

No, not yet, but give it time.

CHRISTY · #2024 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:25 pm

i just dont see this storm weaking all the way down to a cat 2 before florida... it looks like it might miss the ucatan?

Bgator · #2025 Postby **Bgator** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:27 pm

Alot will happen tonight, wait for 2marow models, The Gfs went up to Ft meyers, but has been for days going back and forth!

n o o d l z · #2026 Postby **n o o d l z** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:27 pm

skysummit wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Odd that the pressure has risen significantly to 923.

I don't get it???? Maybe it will tighten up now that the eye is out.

Yea, I guess you could say it was still going through its ERC since the eye is finally opening? Once the sun sets, I believe the pressure will start going down again. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 by the 2a.m. advisory.

Still hanging on to that cat 5 prediction huh? :lol:

Sorry man, like I said yesterday...don't think its going to happen.

#2027 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:27 pm

n o o d l z wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Odd that the pressure has risen significantly to 923.

I don't get it???? Maybe it will tighten up now that the eye is out.

Yea, I guess you could say it was still going through its ERC since the eye is finally opening? Once the sun sets, I believe the pressure will start going down again. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 by the 2a.m. advisory.

Still hanging on to that cat 5 prediction huh? Sorry man, like I said yesterday...don't think its going to happen.

LOL....only 6 more mph to go.

#2028 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:31 pm

Look at those towering T-Storms on the eastern eyewall.

Bgator · #2029 Postby **Bgator** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:32 pm

Does anyone have the full spaghetti model with ALL the models?! Would help thanks!

6SpeedTA95 · #2030 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:32 pm

skysummit wrote:
nequad wrote:Yes, but if you take an objective look, the southern eye wall is not really impressive at all.

No, not yet, but give it time.

People on here have been saying that since early this morning. The eye 8 hrs later still looks pretty ragged. Maybe it will shape up but it sure is taking its sweet ass time doing it.

#2031 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:33 pm

She's weakening, not strengthening. Classic land approach - dry air infiltrates the left side of the storm, eyewall opens, pressure rises. Cf. Rita, Katrina, Dennis, and Ivan. Remember, conditions have to be perfect for a 5. Open eyewalls aren't perfect. Good for Cancun although a Cat 4 is still very bad news.

6SpeedTA95 · #2032 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:33 pm

skysummit wrote:Look at those towering T-Storms on the eastern eyewall.

Those storms need to surround the entire eye if you expect rapid strengthening again. Looking at the IR and WV its going to be a stretch for her to regain her former glory as a cat5 storm. Not saying its impossible but we've been dealing with this "eye" issue for quite some time now.

inotherwords · #2033 Postby **inotherwords** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:34 pm

tampaflwx wrote:just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

#2034 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:35 pm

Bgator wrote:Does anyone have the full spaghetti model with ALL the models?! Would help thanks!

Ask and ye shall receive.

http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/2715/al2420054zn.jpg

Bgator · #2035 Postby **Bgator** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:35 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Look at those towering T-Storms on the eastern eyewall.

Those storms need to surround the entire eye if you expect rapid strengthening again. Looking at the IR and WV its going to be a stretch for her to regain her former glory as a cat5 storm. Not saying its impossible but we've been dealing with this "eye" issue for quite some time now.

She needs a whole 6mph it seems very likely and land shuldnt effect it yet!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2036 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:36 pm

If they find 153 knots or 8 knots more it will be a cat5...But that doe's not even look like a cat4 any more.

#2037 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:38 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Look at those towering T-Storms on the eastern eyewall.

Those storms need to surround the entire eye if you expect rapid strengthening again. Looking at the IR and WV its going to be a stretch for her to regain her former glory as a cat5 storm. Not saying its impossible but we've been dealing with this "eye" issue for quite some time now.

LOL...I don't expect "rapid strengthening" again....geez, she's already a strong 4 just under a 5.

Bgator · #2038 Postby **Bgator** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:38 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If they find 153 knots or 8 knots more it will be a cat5...But that doe's not even look like a cat4 any more.

You guys are wishcating they JUST found 150mh winds at surface it looks better, katrina's eye was open as a cat 5!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2039 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:40 pm

I'm not -removed- in yes they foud 145 knots or 150 mph at the surface...It needs just 8 knots..

n o o d l z · #2040 Postby **n o o d l z** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:40 pm

Bgator wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If they find 153 knots or 8 knots more it will be a cat5...But that doe's not even look like a cat4 any more.

You guys are wishcating they JUST found 150mh winds at surface it looks better, katrina's eye was open as a cat 5!

I may be wrong but I don't ever remember Katrina being a Cat 5 with an open eye...

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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