ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Johnny]

Seems to me if Alex doesn't start his left-hand turn by this afternoon, you can forget about most of these model runs. He has -- for the most part -- defied model logic the last few days anyhow.

Bill Read was on KTRH 740 this morning and was comparing this to Claudette in 2003. He said the same issues were there in regards to when it was going to turn.

Hmmmm.

What do you think AFM?

[Air Force Met]

Seems to me if Alex doesn't start his left-hand turn by this afternoon, you can forget about most of these model runs. He has -- for the most part -- defied model logic the last few days anyhow.

Bill Read was on KTRH 740 this morning and was comparing this to Claudette in 2003. He said the same issues were there in regards to when it was going to turn.

Hmmmm.

What do you think AFM?

I think he will turn...but I think he is moving faster than progged...which means closer to TX. A faster forward motion allows him to beat the building ridge some.

[KWT]

I think the models aren't far off right now, they maybe a touch too far south, esp the GFDL but the track looks like its bent somewhat more to the NW recently, recon will give a good indication either way.

I do think the ECM 0z will be too far south at this moment...

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

Hey guy, I know the High is suppose to build in but if you look at this Water Vapor loop, you can clearly see a low like feature creating a South to North flow throughout Central Texas down to Mexico. Couldn't that keep Alex more NWesterly or stall him?

[sphelps8681]

Claudette 2003

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... 200303.gif

[txagwxman]

He is going to turn...into Brownsville or south about 30-60 miles.

[KWT]

I think the GFDL is about right now, maybe a touch too far south but if you look at what it calls for and look at its current track I think its not far off...track now looks IMO WNW.

[Wx_Warrior]

Another day & we are still into "he's not going to turn..."

[KWT]

To be fair though Alex is turning at the moment, its shifted from a NNW motion onto a NW motion and that is going to continue. I've seen enough now to be confident on he final solution.

[Wx_Warrior]

If he is gonna blowup he better do it sooner that later....

[RachelAnna]

I'm pretty new around here, but have been watching storms for a few years and as of this morning, finally feel a little more comfortable with the forecasts for this storm. It seemed so much was up in the air with the models flip flopping and such, but now it seems like it has taken a more decidedly north west turn, which means the notherm mexico/south texas landfall is imminent IMO.

[KWT]

Well the HWRF doesn't show any strengthening at all, and whilst I think thats very optimistic maybe what we are seeing here with it not really strengthening and the structure changing slightly to one with banding again is the reason why some of the models haven't been keen on it becoming too potent.

[StormClouds63]

Wx_Warrior:

You changed your avatar back again to ... you know who! I always enjoy your posts. Euro nailed contestant #1 (Alex).

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Euro on the track was once again the winner!

[KWT]

For totally the wrong reason it was right...I still think the ECM only scored a weak win here, esp outside of the past 3 days or so, the ECM went WAY too far south on various runs, one run was down at 19.5-20N afterall....

But yeah unless something unexpected happens the ECM was closer.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Most consistant model i think! At least it didnt jump from Freeport to Mexico every run like the GFS did several times.

[HouTXmetro]

There were several EURO runs last week that had Alex to be slaming into the North Central Gulf coast as a Major. While the GFS was burying Alex to be in the Yucatan. So techincally the EURO jumped from Mexico to Pensecola. But once it settled in it was pretty consistant. By far, not a big victory for this model.

[Wx_Warrior]

Storm: hey buddy! yea, it was a request from a few people to see Joe B back as my avatar! LOL...

As far as models, need I repeat GFS had freeport earlier this week!

[TexasF6]

It looks like he is stair-stepping from NNW to NW....now the question is how far will he stay on a NWsterly course? If he strengthens, will the poleward influence beckon unto him? Thoughts? Especially from the ProMets...

[A1A]

Well not a promet but it just seems like the blast of north convection will draw him more north.