ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Straight up rocket fuel until landfall

https://i.imgur.com/GVObJU7.png

Looking at that and thinking if she does actually try to loop back she will have plenty of fuel for regeneration on the other side of Florida. What a season

[GCANE]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm going to say that we will see a cleared out eye by 4pm EST

[Iceresistance]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

Where is the PV Streamer in the map?

[GCANE]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

Its definitely messing with eyewall development

[tolakram]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

What PV Streamer?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-08-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[GCANE]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

Where is the PV Streamer in the map?

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[Jr0d]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

Last year for Ian, they were projecting maybe 2 to 4' in Key West, yet the south facing area got significantly flooded. Our place was at least 6', yet we still got over a foot of water inside our house.

Surge is tricky to forecast.

[Iceresistance]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

Where is the PV Streamer in the map?

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

It did weaken compared to 3 hours ago, Idalia is trying to knock it away.

[underthwx]

The PV streamer I mentioned earlier today has strengthened and covered the SW flank of Idalia.
May take some of the punch out of her.
I take back my Cat3 at 26.5N

Where is the PV Streamer in the map?

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What effect does a PV streamer have on a cyclone such as this one?...

[Iceresistance]

Where is the PV Streamer in the map?

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What effect does a PV streamer have on a cyclone such as this one?...

IDK, I think it's something that GCANE can explain.

[underthwx]

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What effect does a PV streamer have on a cyclone such as this one?...

IDK, I think it's something that GCANE can explain.

Lol....I await the answer....thanks Ice!

[tolakram]

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What effect does a PV streamer have on a cyclone such as this one?...

IDK, I think it's something that GCANE can explain.

I don't see any upper level vorticity on WV or the visible. Doesn't mean it's not there, but I'd like to be able to actually see it.

[Iceresistance]

Lightning at the Southern Eyewall again.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg8ek.gif

[GCANE]

Where is the PV Streamer in the map?

Its the area in yellow
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What effect does a PV streamer have on a cyclone such as this one?...

Its vorticity at the top of the troposphere.
Interacts with the TC's vort column causing the upper portion to snake around.
Also causes a down-draft.
I believe a good part of it comes from the stratosphere so its next to impossible to make it out on any satellite imagery.

[FLLurker32]

Which models perform better in detecting the movement of a front?

[TallyTracker]

Long lines at the sandbag filling stations now. We had an emergency alert to our phones in Leon County at 11 am when the hurricane warning was issued.

[beachnut]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

Try using the CERA tool: https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
It was pretty close during Ian, and is supposed to be surge above terrain as mapped by lidar. We're on the water here too, but as others have mentioned, wind/wave action (what fema now calls limwa) can/will increase the threat.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The storm isn’t looking as healthy on radar or satellite. This is good.

[FLLurker32]

Long lines at the sandbag filling stations now. We had an emergency alert to our phones in Leon County at 11 am when the hurricane warning was issued.

Oddly, in Central Marion we initially had a hurricane watch that was upgraded to a Tropical storm warning. With the 11am update they added a hurricane watch along with the tropical storm warning. My only assumption is they aren’t 100% onboard with the models handling of the front and RI.