Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snowballzzz]

This morning's show the SW trough mostly missing the phase with the PV. That would mean no snow. It is something to watch as it is how this storm can bust.

Is it true?

It was one model run. Still going to be a couple more days before they (hopefully) come to an agreement.

[bubba hotep]

06Z is bad for everyone

On a positive note, the 06z Euro looks like it would be a better solution if you extrapolate it out beyond 144hrs.

[wxman57]

I'd be more concerned about the Euro's forecast than one run of the GFS. The EC is still keeping that upper low west of Baja, which limits moisture and lifting over Texas next week - until next Friday when the upper low finally moves east.

Really, this was expected. Until the models figure out what's going to happen next week, we'll see wild run-to-run differences. You can start believing the models around Monday.

[Wthrfan]

I like the last two GFS runs. Somewhere between a foot of snow near DFW and zero snow next week. Ha! Meanwhile, the Canadian model (blue lines) not only sucks at hurricane forecasting, it's terrible for low temps in winter. It has Houston down to 5F next Saturday (LCH 4F). Also, 7-8 inches of snow in SW Houston. It does this with every strong cold front. Did it in 2021, did it last January. Always forecasts single digits, which turns out to be about 20-25 degrees too cold.

Each model handles the 500mb pattern next week differently. Therefore, we really don't know what will happen yet. I like that Fort Worth NWS discussion concerning the uncertainty. Maybe the models will come into at least some agreement by Sunday or Monday. Maybe...

P.S. I changed the links on my avatar and images to start with "https//" vs. "http". That will make them show up. Your browser may ask if you want to accept the risk of viewing my images. There's no risk. Really! Trust me!

http://www.wxman57.com/images/00Z03JanHOU.jpg

https://www.wxman57.com/images/00Z03JanHOU.jpg

I’ve watched some other Mets that are more inline with what you are saying…some seasonably cold winter weather with a few days of below normal temps. Everyone gets excited for cold fronts that use to be more the norm but with the general warming and above average temperatures now typical for most months, I guess we just have take what we can get.

[tolakram]

Hello,

friendly reminder to please be polite to everyone, and if you think a post here doesn't belong please report it instead of replying. If you post something and it gets reported then here I am in your business.

I don't like to moderate this rough and tumble why doesn't it ever snow in Texas because it's in the south thread

[gboudx]

From Jeff:

A strong cold front will move across the area on Sunday…a prolonged period of below normal temperatures next week.

General warming trend over the next 2-3 days before a strong cold front moves through the area on Sunday. Colder air mass will spread down the plains this weekend with the cold air spilling into Texas behind a large winter storm over the plains and OH valley. Ahead of the front on Sunday temperatures will warm into the 70’s and possibly the 80’s along with a push of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast parameters do show the potential for showers and thunderstorms Sunday along and ahead of the front. Some of the storms could become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. While the greatest threat looks to be northeast of our local area, it is not zero with SPC showing a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk over the metro area and slight (level 2 out of 5) northeast of the metro area. Will need to keep an eye on Sunday for any higher threat that may develop.

Cold:
Cold is coming…this is not February 2021 cold…but cold enough for your typical cold weather preparations. Arctic boundary will quickly advance through the area Sunday afternoon and evening (timing may end up a bit faster) as is usual with these shallow dense cold air masses. Temperatures in the 70’s and possibly 80’s ahead of the front will tumble into the 40’s and 50’s behind the front and continue downward into Monday morning with a freeze for many areas north of I-10. This will be the first of at least 2-3 nights with below freezing temperatures over the area. Temperatures Monday morning will range from the mid-upper 20’s north of HWY 105 to near 30 along I-10 to above freezing along the coast. Gusty northerly winds of 10-20mph will result in wind chills of 10’s to 20’s over the area. With strong cold air advection in place on Monday temperatures will remain in the 40’s for highs.

Coldest night may be Tuesday with hard freezes (below 24 for more than 2 hours) down toward the HWY 105 corridor and lows in the upper 20’s toward I-10 with nearing freezing even toward the coastal counties. How low temperatures will fall will be a function of decreasing winds and cloud cover…but the current trend in the last 24 hours has been a bit cooler. Lows looks similar on Wednesday morning ranging from the mid 20’s north of HWY 105 to upper 20’s along I-10. Thursday morning will likely feature another freeze…maybe a few degrees warmer. Hours below freezing will range from 8-12 north of HWY 105 to 4-8 near I-10 and 3-5 for the coastal counties. There remains some uncertainty on just how cold temperatures may get and there is some potential for temperatures to trend downward some over the next few days.

Preparations:

Now through the weekend is time to complete cold weather winterization precautions.

Protect sensitive vegetation.
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained).
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.


Winter Precipitation Potential:
There continues to be at least signals in guidance that some moisture may work into the cold air mass mid to late week but the uncertainty remains extremely high on if or when any sort of precipitation will occur. The most likely time period for anything would be in the Wed-Fri period as an upper level system potentially moves out of northern MX and across Texas which helps to force a coastal low over the northwest Gulf. The incoming air mass may be too dry to allow moisture to push northward mid to late week resulting in only an increase in cloud cover or there could be some overlap with the cold air and increasing moisture. There are a lot of variables that remain for this period and the near continuous guidance flipping between runs and the different models yield almost no confidence in what may ultimately happen. This part of the forecast will hopefully come into better focus toward late this weekend and early next week.

[Ntxw]

For those in Northwest Texas some models have been trending with more snow when the secondary surge of arctic air arrives on Tuesday/Wednesday. And it’s now showing up within 120 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/SJbNbYm/IMG-0095.png

https://i.ibb.co/yXW5d1Y/IMG-0096.png

Digging shortwave with disturbances ahead of it. Definitely something to watch for.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

[wxman22]

The ICON flipped towards the GFS and EURO solution.

[orangeblood]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall

[Ntxw]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

Try checking this out. Start with Feb 9th and go through the 12th.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010.html

[losf1981]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

pardon my ignorance but this is good for winter weather chances?

[Gotwood]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

Around 6 inches for my area I’ll take that in a heartbeat.

[wxman57]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

pardon my ignorance but this is good for winter weather chances?

ICON model has no winter weather precip in the Wichita Falls area. I was up your way in 1989 for the Hotter 'n' Hell Hundred bike ride.

[orangeblood]

Looks like the 12z ICON is going the slower route and will be in par with GFS/Euro, on this run.

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

Try checking this out. Start with Feb 9th and go through the 12th.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010.html

I like our chances with the neutral/open trough scenario at this point and that is the best outcome. Positive tilt - little moisture. Negative tilt/Closed - cold air erosion

[txtwister78]

ICON looks great on a snowfall map but that looks more typical of an elevation type event out in west Texas and as you get closer to the DFW metroplex precip never quite makes it or transitions to liquid. Temp profiles borderline elsewhere with surface temps in the mid to upper 30's across N TX. A lot of moisture (maybe too much with dews climbing in the low 30's Thursday afternoon) without enough cold air around.

[HockeyTx82]

ICON looks great on a snowfall map but that looks more typical of an elevation type event out in west Texas and as you get closer to the DFW metroplex precip never quite makes it or transitions to liquid. Temp profiles borderline elsewhere with surface temps in the mid to upper 30's across N TX. A lot of moisture (maybe too much with dews climbing in the low 30's Thursday afternoon) without enough cold air around.

I also remember one point hearing there's the geographical area East/Northeast of the DFW that those mountains tend to bottle up cold air that tend to seep down from that area so that could also play a role we're kind of in a bowl.

Still not zero in plenty of time for things to change.

[bubba hotep]

Another thing to note is that the Euro AI is much wetter than the Op or the EPS.

[Ntxw]

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

Try checking this out. Start with Feb 9th and go through the 12th.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010.html

I like our chances with the neutral/open trough scenario at this point and that is the best outcome. Positive tilt - little moisture. Negative tilt/Closed - cold air erosion

These marginal, high qpf events can be quite the blockbuster, where it is JUST cold enough.

[losf1981]

Yep, but still keeps the system connected to the Main Jet like several of the ensemble members have been showing (as opposed to cutting it off)

12Z ICON Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736542800-Wxg2nkj5Fpg.png

pardon my ignorance but this is good for winter weather chances?

ICON model has no winter weather precip in the Wichita Falls area. I was up your way in 1989 for the Hotter 'n' Hell Hundred bike ride.

yeah I don't buy that. If anyone gets snow it's usually us and west to the panhandle.